Comments
-
How Favorites Performed In 2024
210- RaceType Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins CL 12,084 4,603 38.1% $1.72 -11.2% 2.64 1.03 $4.51 1.25 1.0 1,743.50 4,466.45 NW 5,259 2,091 39.8% $1.74 -11.0% 2.73 1.05 $4.37 1.20 1.0 764.85 1,986.13 AL 756 313 41.4% $1.78 -9.6% 2.64 1.06 $4.30 1.13 1.0 118.72 295.02 HC 1,299 559 43.0% $1.66 -18.3% 2.99 1.03 $3.86 0.99 1.0 187.22 542.20 GR 463 168 36.3% $1.61 -15.9% 2.68 0.96 $4.45 1.20 1.0 62.66 174.53 ST 2,376 917 38.6% $1.69 -13.1% 2.61 1.02 $4.37 1.20 1.0 351.62 894.85 MS 4,095 1,632 39.9% $1.73 -11.5% 2.96 1.06 $4.35 1.20 1.0 551.25 1,543.87 MD 4,609 1,708 37.1% $1.63 -15.4% 2.72 0.99 $4.40 1.21 1.0 627.97 1,732.88 OC 1 0 0.0% -100.0% 1.18 1.0 0.17 0.38 MO 309 107 34.6% $1.60 -15.3% 2.69 1.00 $4.62 1.39 1.0 39.79 107.29 -
How Favorites Performed In 2024
170- Surf Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Dirt 26,031 10,251 39.4% $1.70 -13.0% 2.68 1.03 $4.31 1.17 1.0 3,819.74 9,976.41 Turf 5,198 1,844 35.5% $1.73 -9.3% 2.95 1.05 $4.89 1.45 1.0 624.85 1,760.62 Hurdles 22 3 13.6% $0.89 -24.5% 0.95 0.46 $6.53 1.79 1.0 3.16 6.55 171- Surf1 Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Dirt 25,094 9,904 39.5% $1.70 -13.0% 2.68 1.03 $4.30 1.16 1.0 3,690.78 9,645.50 Dirt,In 937 347 37.0% $1.73 -10.1% 2.69 1.05 $4.68 1.35 1.0 128.96 330.91 Turf 4,841 1,713 35.4% $1.72 -9.8% 2.95 1.04 $4.87 1.44 1.0 580.12 1,643.37 Turf,In 357 131 36.7% $1.88 -3.9% 2.93 1.12 $5.11 1.53 1.0 44.73 117.26 Hurdles 22 3 13.6% $0.89 -24.5% 0.95 0.46 $6.53 1.79 1.0 3.16 6.55 180- Dist Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Mini 953 391 41.0% $1.63 -18.7% 2.77 0.99 $3.98 1.00 1.0 141.20 395.93 Dash 6,302 2,538 40.3% $1.76 -10.2% 2.81 1.06 $4.36 1.18 1.0 903.36 2,394.49 Sprint 12,715 4,970 39.1% $1.71 -12.2% 2.73 1.03 $4.37 1.19 1.0 1,819.56 4,822.92 Route 11,060 4,111 37.2% $1.68 -12.7% 2.65 1.01 $4.51 1.27 1.0 1,552.98 4,050.66 Marathon 221 88 39.8% $1.86 -5.3% 2.87 1.11 $4.66 1.30 1.0 30.65 79.58 181- Dist1@ Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Mini 953 391 41.0% $1.63 -18.7% 2.77 0.99 $3.98 1.00 1.0 141.20 395.93 Dash 6,162 2,474 40.1% $1.75 -10.6% 2.79 1.06 $4.35 1.18 1.0 885.82 2,343.77 Dash@ 140 64 45.7% $2.10 3.8% 3.65 1.26 $4.60 1.29 1.0 17.54 50.73 Sprint 12,526 4,909 39.2% $1.71 -12.3% 2.74 1.03 $4.36 1.19 1.0 1,794.68 4,757.13 Sprint@ 189 61 32.3% $1.59 -14.0% 2.45 0.93 $4.93 1.38 1.0 24.88 65.79 Route 10,824 4,024 37.2% $1.67 -13.2% 2.64 1.01 $4.50 1.26 1.0 1,525.24 3,968.52 Route@ 236 87 36.9% $1.72 -10.5% 3.14 1.06 $4.66 1.38 1.0 27.74 82.14 Marathon 218 87 39.9% $1.87 -4.9% 2.88 1.11 $4.68 1.31 1.0 30.20 78.48 Marathon@ 3 1 33.3% $1.13 -62.1% 2.22 0.91 $3.40 1.26 1.0 0.45 1.10 182- Dist2 Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Sprint 19,970 7,899 39.6% $1.72 -11.9% 2.76 1.04 $4.35 1.18 1.0 2,864.12 7,613.34 Route 11,281 4,199 37.2% $1.68 -12.7% 2.65 1.02 $4.51 1.27 1.0 1,583.63 4,130.24 183- Dist3 Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins 2.00 19 10 52.6% $2.17 8.0% 3.77 1.18 $4.12 0.86 1.0 2.65 8.48 2.50 28 5 17.9% $0.69 -69.7% 1.07 0.45 $3.88 1.07 1.0 4.69 11.21 4.00 23 9 39.1% $1.69 -13.4% 2.41 1.00 $4.31 1.12 1.0 3.73 9.00 4.50 883 367 41.6% $1.65 -17.8% 2.82 1.00 $3.97 1.00 1.0 130.13 367.23 5.00 2,152 874 40.6% $1.80 -8.2% 2.91 1.09 $4.44 1.23 1.0 300.11 802.31 5.50 4,150 1,664 40.1% $1.73 -11.6% 2.76 1.05 $4.32 1.16 1.0 603.25 1,592.18 6.00 7,738 3,050 39.4% $1.70 -13.0% 2.68 1.02 $4.31 1.16 1.0 1,136.22 2,976.58 6.50 2,540 967 38.1% $1.67 -13.8% 2.72 1.01 $4.39 1.21 1.0 355.57 953.70 7.00 1,932 775 40.1% $1.79 -8.6% 2.93 1.08 $4.45 1.24 1.0 264.50 717.08 7.50 505 178 35.2% $1.71 -10.2% 2.81 1.01 $4.85 1.39 1.0 63.26 175.56 8.00 5,609 2,109 37.6% $1.67 -13.5% 2.64 1.02 $4.44 1.24 1.0 797.62 2,075.24 8.18 156 60 38.5% $1.80 -7.5% 2.70 1.05 $4.68 1.28 1.0 22.23 56.91 8.32 1,976 746 37.8% $1.64 -15.4% 2.55 1.00 $4.34 1.19 1.0 292.00 749.25 8.50 2,747 998 36.3% $1.71 -10.7% 2.74 1.03 $4.71 1.36 1.0 363.89 968.14 9.00 527 188 35.7% $1.69 -11.4% 2.64 1.01 $4.73 1.36 1.0 71.22 185.56 9.50 45 10 22.2% $1.11 -29.8% 1.66 0.64 $4.99 1.40 1.0 6.02 15.55 10.00 83 37 44.6% $2.05 1.9% 3.13 1.22 $4.59 1.28 1.0 11.83 30.24 11.00 57 26 45.6% $2.16 5.8% 3.44 1.27 $4.75 1.31 1.0 7.55 20.47 12.00 48 18 37.5% $1.76 -8.9% 2.76 1.01 $4.71 1.24 1.0 6.53 17.77 13.00 1 0 0.0% -100.0% 1.24 1.0 0.20 0.37 14.00 4 3 75.0% $2.13 15.7% 4.55 1.46 $2.83 0.62 1.0 0.66 2.05 15.00 1 1 100.0% $4.20 100.0% 7.69 2.50 $4.20 1.08 1.0 0.13 0.40 16.00 4 0 0.0% -100.0% 1.23 1.0 0.46 1.49 16.32 1 0 0.0% -100.0% 2.32 1.0 0.13 0.25 18.00 16 2 12.5% $0.81 -26.4% 0.90 0.42 $6.50 1.80 1.0 2.23 4.74 19.00 4 1 25.0% $1.65 -7.6% 1.85 0.85 $6.60 1.84 1.0 0.54 1.17 20.00 2 0 0.0% -100.0% 1.59 1.0 0.40 0.64 190- SurfDist Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Dirt:Mini 946 388 41.0% $1.63 -18.7% 2.77 0.99 $3.98 1.00 1.0 140.18 393.26 Dirt:Dash 5,133 2,100 40.9% $1.75 -11.0% 2.76 1.05 $4.28 1.14 1.0 761.13 1,991.12 Dirt:Spr 11,841 4,689 39.6% $1.71 -12.4% 2.74 1.04 $4.33 1.17 1.0 1,711.45 4,528.72 Dirt:Rout 8,039 3,042 37.8% $1.65 -14.8% 2.54 1.00 $4.37 1.20 1.0 1,196.57 3,035.02 Dirt:Mar 72 32 44.4% $1.84 -7.4% 3.08 1.13 $4.15 1.11 1.0 10.40 28.28 Turf:Mini 7 3 42.9% $1.74 -12.6% 2.94 1.12 $4.07 1.18 1.0 1.02 2.67 Turf:Dash 1,169 438 37.5% $1.79 -7.6% 3.08 1.09 $4.77 1.41 1.0 142.23 403.37 Turf:Spr 874 281 32.2% $1.61 -13.0% 2.60 0.96 $5.00 1.47 1.0 108.11 294.20 Turf:Rout 3,021 1,069 35.4% $1.74 -8.9% 3.00 1.05 $4.91 1.47 1.0 356.41 1,015.64 Turf:Mar 127 53 41.7% $2.03 1.0% 3.10 1.18 $4.86 1.36 1.0 17.08 44.75 Hurd:Mar 22 3 13.6% $0.89 -24.5% 0.95 0.46 $6.53 1.79 1.0 3.16 6.55 200- TrkCnd Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Fst/Frm 26,575 10,264 38.6% $1.71 -12.0% 2.72 1.03 $4.41 1.21 1.0 3,770.94 9,960.51 Good 1,624 626 38.5% $1.72 -11.4% 2.76 1.03 $4.46 1.21 1.0 226.79 609.93 Off 3,052 1,208 39.6% $1.69 -13.7% 2.68 1.03 $4.27 1.16 1.0 450.02 1,173.14 201- TrkCnd1 Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Dirt:Fst 1,107 445 40.2% $1.71 -12.8% 2.69 1.02 $4.26 1.11 1.0 165.18 436.48 Dirt:Gd 2,964 1,168 39.4% $1.68 -14.2% 2.66 1.02 $4.26 1.16 1.0 438.78 1,140.47 Dirt:Off 4,593 1,623 35.3% $1.73 -9.3% 2.94 1.04 $4.89 1.45 1.0 552.00 1,554.51 Turf:Fst 517 181 35.0% $1.73 -9.2% 2.94 1.04 $4.94 1.47 1.0 61.62 173.44 Turf:Gd 88 40 45.5% $2.08 3.1% 3.56 1.22 $4.57 1.24 1.0 11.23 32.67 Turf:Off 22 3 13.6% $0.89 -24.5% 0.95 0.46 $6.53 1.79 1.0 3.16 6.55 -
How Favorites Performed In 2024
140- DOW Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Sun 4,977 1,892 38.0% $1.72 -11.1% 2.68 1.05 $4.53 1.29 1.0 704.74 1,802.79 Mon 3,014 1,203 39.9% $1.68 -14.5% 2.70 1.02 $4.21 1.12 1.0 445.11 1,181.72 Tue 2,684 1,105 41.2% $1.72 -12.9% 2.76 1.03 $4.17 1.08 1.0 400.12 1,069.40 Wed 3,974 1,539 38.7% $1.64 -16.0% 2.67 1.00 $4.25 1.13 1.0 577.41 1,545.32 Thu 4,289 1,684 39.3% $1.71 -12.3% 2.75 1.04 $4.36 1.20 1.0 611.92 1,621.74 Fri 5,547 2,090 37.7% $1.70 -11.9% 2.69 1.02 $4.53 1.26 1.0 778.35 2,040.93 Sat 6,766 2,585 38.2% $1.73 -10.7% 2.78 1.04 $4.52 1.26 1.0 930.08 2,481.68 160- MOY Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Jan 1,897 706 37.2% $1.73 -10.2% 2.76 1.04 $4.64 1.32 1.0 256.14 679.15 Feb 2,181 835 38.3% $1.73 -10.7% 2.78 1.05 $4.53 1.28 1.0 300.90 792.32 Mar 2,310 902 39.0% $1.74 -10.6% 2.75 1.05 $4.46 1.24 1.0 327.52 857.54 Apr 2,099 803 38.3% $1.71 -11.7% 2.72 1.03 $4.47 1.23 1.0 295.69 782.37 May 2,978 1,137 38.2% $1.64 -15.7% 2.54 0.99 $4.29 1.15 1.0 446.93 1,147.86 Jun 3,275 1,321 40.3% $1.75 -10.7% 2.75 1.06 $4.33 1.17 1.0 480.12 1,251.73 Jul 3,152 1,246 39.5% $1.72 -11.9% 2.67 1.03 $4.35 1.16 1.0 466.20 1,209.18 Aug 3,315 1,281 38.6% $1.66 -14.8% 2.63 1.02 $4.30 1.18 1.0 486.36 1,260.01 Sep 3,013 1,179 39.1% $1.70 -12.8% 2.68 1.03 $4.34 1.18 1.0 439.16 1,144.56 Oct 2,582 986 38.2% $1.70 -12.2% 2.82 1.02 $4.45 1.22 1.0 349.57 966.95 Nov 2,453 939 38.3% $1.69 -12.8% 2.82 1.02 $4.42 1.22 1.0 333.07 918.45 Dec 1,996 763 38.2% $1.72 -11.2% 2.87 1.04 $4.49 1.26 1.0 -
How Favorites Performed In 20241- Overall
Win Bets
Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins
Overall 31,251 12,098 38.7% $1.70 -12.5% 2.72 1.03 $4.40 1.21 1.0 4,447.7511,743.58
120- Track Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins ALB 204 84 41.2% $1.76 -10.5% 2.96 1.03 $4.28 1.08 1.0 28.39 81.40 AQU 1,329 481 36.2% $1.68 -12.1% 2.55 1.02 $4.64 1.34 1.0 188.45 471.83 ASD 353 170 48.2% $2.00 0.0% 2.94 1.20 $4.15 1.07 1.0 57.74 141.29 BTP 770 363 47.1% $1.78 -12.4% 2.71 1.06 $3.78 0.86 1.0 133.86 343.66 CBY 406 153 37.7% $1.60 -17.8% 2.66 0.96 $4.25 1.12 1.0 57.45 159.29 CD 817 291 35.6% $1.78 -7.4% 2.76 1.09 $4.99 1.53 1.0 105.39 267.78 CNL 272 109 40.1% $1.82 -7.1% 3.03 1.14 $4.53 1.35 1.0 36.03 95.96 CT 1,309 520 39.7% $1.58 -21.1% 2.84 0.96 $3.99 1.02 1.0 183.00 538.87 DED 612 236 38.6% $1.75 -9.8% 3.07 1.04 $4.54 1.23 1.0 76.81 227.55 DEL 622 261 42.0% $1.75 -11.5% 2.77 1.06 $4.18 1.09 1.0 94.17 247.00 DMR 442 156 35.3% $1.68 -11.6% 2.76 1.02 $4.76 1.40 1.0 56.62 152.71 ELP 228 85 37.3% $1.91 -2.9% 2.98 1.15 $5.11 1.57 1.0 28.52 73.73 EMD 430 158 36.7% $1.63 -15.2% 2.27 1.00 $4.44 1.27 1.0 69.69 157.39 EVD 622 234 37.6% $1.70 -11.9% 2.81 1.01 $4.52 1.22 1.0 83.20 232.42 FE 305 109 35.7% $1.52 -21.3% 2.21 0.91 $4.25 1.12 1.0 49.36 119.35 FG 701 267 38.1% $1.73 -10.6% 2.98 1.06 $4.55 1.31 1.0 89.54 252.23 FL 747 308 41.2% $1.64 -18.1% 2.69 1.00 $3.99 1.01 1.0 114.39 308.12 FNO 106 38 35.8% $1.63 -14.6% 2.22 0.97 $4.54 1.26 1.0 17.11 38.98 GG 518 222 42.9% $1.97 -1.2% 2.69 1.19 $4.59 1.30 1.0 82.62 186.62 GP 1,973 745 37.8% $1.72 -11.0% 2.77 1.05 $4.54 1.30 1.0 269.28 712.18 HAW 554 247 44.6% $1.85 -7.0% 3.06 1.12 $4.14 1.08 1.0 80.61 220.66 HOU 361 126 34.9% $1.80 -6.3% 2.67 1.06 $5.16 1.53 1.0 47.11 118.58 IND 986 391 39.7% $1.68 -14.3% 2.90 1.03 $4.24 1.15 1.0 134.62 380.89 KEE 311 125 40.2% $2.02 0.7% 3.44 1.20 $5.02 1.48 1.0 36.30 104.29 LA 127 45 35.4% $1.58 -17.1% 2.15 0.92 $4.46 1.17 1.0 20.93 48.66 LAD 499 182 36.5% $1.60 -16.7% 2.50 0.95 $4.40 1.16 1.0 72.70 191.65 LRC 175 77 44.0% $1.88 -5.3% 2.78 1.14 $4.26 1.15 1.0 27.66 67.53 LRL 1,321 463 35.0% $1.62 -14.5% 2.45 0.98 $4.62 1.33 1.0 188.81 470.43 LS 375 146 38.9% $1.83 -6.3% 2.99 1.12 $4.70 1.39 1.0 48.90 130.14 MED 54 18 33.3% $1.68 -10.6% 2.86 0.98 $5.03 1.45 1.0 6.30 18.30 MNR 1,025 426 41.6% $1.69 -15.0% 2.82 1.01 $4.07 1.02 1.0 151.02 422.08 MTH 505 179 35.4% $1.52 -21.1% 2.51 0.95 $4.27 1.22 1.0 71.23 188.95 MVR 819 350 42.7% $1.70 -15.1% 2.70 1.03 $3.99 1.01 1.0 129.60 338.51 OP 662 219 33.1% $1.66 -11.3% 2.93 1.01 $5.02 1.52 1.0 74.82 217.79 PEN 796 321 40.3% $1.75 -10.7% 2.68 1.06 $4.33 1.18 1.0 119.64 303.56 PHA 1,464 561 38.3% $1.71 -11.7% 2.76 1.04 $4.47 1.24 1.0 203.59 541.42 PID 630 249 39.5% $1.72 -11.9% 2.60 1.05 $4.36 1.21 1.0 95.63 237.00 PIM 110 38 34.5% $1.59 -15.8% 2.38 0.97 $4.59 1.32 1.0 16.00 39.28 PLN 306 119 38.9% $1.71 -12.1% 2.40 1.04 $4.39 1.21 1.0 49.57 114.73 PRM 585 234 40.0% $1.60 -20.1% 2.40 0.97 $3.99 1.00 1.0 97.59 242.45 RP 617 264 42.8% $1.76 -11.4% 2.95 1.05 $4.10 1.03 1.0 89.54 251.88 RUI 36 14 38.9% $1.57 -21.1% 2.60 0.91 $4.04 0.94 1.0 5.38 15.40 SA 863 343 39.7% $1.75 -10.4% 2.69 1.06 $4.40 1.22 1.0 127.69 322.07 SAC 46 15 32.6% $1.38 -27.8% 1.81 0.88 $4.23 1.23 1.0 8.27 17.10 SAR 461 149 32.3% $1.60 -13.6% 2.40 0.95 $4.94 1.44 1.0 62.17 156.96 SR 69 29 42.0% $1.92 -3.1% 2.77 1.17 $4.57 1.32 1.0 10.48 24.71 SUN 250 110 44.0% $1.81 -9.0% 3.18 1.08 $4.10 1.04 1.0 34.57 101.54 TAM 833 325 39.0% $1.86 -5.1% 3.03 1.11 $4.77 1.36 1.0 107.36 292.84 TDN 823 351 42.6% $1.57 -25.7% 2.62 0.97 $3.67 0.89 1.0 134.19 361.93 TIM 68 23 33.8% $1.54 -18.0% 2.00 0.91 $4.56 1.25 1.0 11.50 25.14 TP 571 175 30.6% $1.74 -7.1% 2.83 1.02 $5.67 1.76 1.0 61.75 171.65 TUP 613 244 39.8% $1.59 -20.6% 2.75 0.96 $3.99 1.01 1.0 88.79 252.97 WO 1,177 385 32.7% $1.64 -11.9% 2.52 1.01 $5.03 1.56 1.0 152.70 382.15 WRD 241 105 43.6% $1.71 -15.0% 2.73 1.04 $3.93 0.98 1.0 38.42 101.13 ZIA 152 60 39.5% $1.61 -18.8% 2.90 0.99 $4.07 1.07 1.0 20.68 60.87 -
Class - How do you determine it and then use it?Now that I’ve opened up deTerminator, there’s a place in the Pace Module that lists the PSR for the race in each pace line. You can use that to determine class.
-
thanks to brian, jimmy p., neal, ira, duffy and everyone else for new insights!Certainly horses with object odds (assuming the object is the blended AI Line with aML) less than 10-1 will win more often than horses with object odds over 10-1. But the key to profitability is betting horses which the public has underbet, regardless of the horses’ odds. You can cash a lot of tickets by betting “legitimate win contenders” and still lose money. It’s important to understand (and I know you do) that a legitimate win contender is not the same thing as a profitable bet.
-
January is Difficult - in case you haven't noticed...Jim's observations might lend some credence to Dave's theory since Gulfstream is a higher-class track (especially the upcoming meet) than PHA.
-
Class - How do you determine it and then use it?I think my post might’ve veered off the subject a bit. To answer the original poster’s question: in HSH, I use rcClass, but I’ve never used class to select contenders. I’ve used it to break ties among contenders or add a longshot contender if the horse is ranked first or second in rcClass.
-
Class - How do you determine it and then use it?This is a good question as there are many forms of class to consider: purse, claiming tag, track (is the horse shipping in from a higher or lower class track?), trainer, or jockey. These considerations aren’t based on time but are certainly reflected in the odds. My question is when are these factors more predictive than past performance data?
-
RegSpeed SortOne thing to remember is that New Pace was developed with the non-HSH user in mind. Consequently, Dave had to develop a contender selection process that could be used with DRF or BRIS past performances, for example. I personally got better results using the PickMaster for contender selection. To select contenders, try experimenting with the NP contender selection rules but using the PM to select the factors, as opposed to using only the RegSpeed factors.
-
Say a Prayer for Ron Tiller- May he rest in peaceI just read on Pace Advantage a post of Ron Tiller’s from 2004 in which he describes Dave as an “artificial intelligence/neural network bon vivant”. Hah! A perfect description 21 years later!
RIP Ron. Thank you for your humor and your support!!!
Here’s the thread at PA:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=97708&postcount=11
PickMaster
Start FollowingSend a Message