Comments
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Race Day Pre-betting ApproachesI think a missing ingredient is understanding how we perform in L1, L2, D1, and D2 races. This is “situational information” that most of us ignore, however each scenario may require different contender selection and betting strategies. Given the choice, I would prefer to understand how I perform in these different scenarios than to have the final odds before I placed my bets.
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DET Tips & Tricks Class Sat, March 15, 9:30am pacificThe proposed Risk Score is based on the “b” column. It considers all horses in the race.
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DET Tips & Tricks Class Sat, March 15, 9:30am pacificThe "Risk" score is a great idea. Hopefully, someone out there who studies their bets in Excel will calculate a risk score for each race bet and track how they perform in different risk scores...and then share their results with us. The beauty about the risk score is that it is a dT generated figure that reduces the need to take a peek at the tote board--for those of us who still like to see what the public thinks before making a bet.
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Report update AP+PS+LRgino,
1) Dave must have formatted the posts. I can't edit them. I don't think that you can edit a post 7-10 (?) minutes after you first posted it.
2) The factors are used in an object that some people are using in dT for contender selection, with a focus on horses that rank first in one or more of them (this is where the Reynolds numbers come in). I thought I'd study each factor in the object to see how many winners it had in its top rank (using the PickMaster and making rules). $net wasn't a consideration. That said, it would be interesting to use Systems and run different factor combinations through the "Odds Ranger" to see where the bad bets and/or profitable bets are. Unfortunately, I've forgotten how to use Systems so that idea is out.
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Report update AP+PS+LRgino has risen!
You have any tips or tricks with Reynolds numbers? Maybe any Drutherisms? -
Report update AP+PS+LRRSE 2024 Races With 11+ Horses (no FTS)
1,434 races
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW 1 rPubCh 1-1 1,457 456 31.3 $1.77 3.59 1.06 127.1 430.3 174 rPSR 1-1 1,588 341 21.5 $1.54 2.46 0.96 138.4 356.9 78 rFTLR 1-1 1,583 292 18.4 $1.61 2.12 1.06 137.9 275.8 82 rFTB2L3 1-1 1,626 286 17.6 $1.40 2.02 0.96 141.8 297.2 1625 rtSC 1-1 1,764 266 15.1 $1.53 1.73 1.00 153.7 267.3 1633 rtAPV 1-1 1,492 210 14.1 $1.57 1.61 1.00 130.0 209.3 1632 rtClass 1-1 2,050 282 13.8 $1.40 1.58 0.96 178.8 293.5
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Report update AP+PS+LRRSE 2024 Races With 7-10 Horses (no FTS)
14,928 races
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW 1 rPubCh 1-1 15,272 5,603 36.7 $1.70 2.92 1.031,922.05,456.7 174 rPSR 1-1 16,280 4,796 29.5 $1.65 2.34 1.012,048.54,758.4 82 rFTB2L3 1-1 16,761 4,224 25.2 $1.64 2.00 1.012,109.04,182.4 78 rFTLR 1-1 16,618 4,010 24.1 $1.64 1.92 1.012,092.33,955.2 1625 rtSC 1-1 18,258 3,874 21.2 $1.65 1.69 1.012,296.23,823.4 1632 rtClass 1-1 20,107 3,901 19.4 $1.59 1.54 0.992,526.33,932.0 1633 rtAPV 1-1 15,329 2,944 19.2 $1.56 1.53 1.001,928.72,952.7
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Report update AP+PS+LRPSR does get the most winners in its first rank. Here's how all of the factors did in the first run of the PickMaster in fields of 5-6 horses:
2024 5-6 horse fields (no FTS)
8,383 races
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW 1 rPubCh 1-1 8,593 3,709 43.2 $1.70 2.44 1.031,522.53,602.4 174 rPSR 1-1 9,044 3,182 35.2 $1.59 1.99 0.991,602.53,224.5 82 rFTB2L3 1-1 9,335 2,913 31.2 $1.58 1.76 0.991,653.42,939.5 78 rFTLR 1-1 9,191 2,782 30.3 $1.64 1.71 1.001,627.32,768.8 1625 rtSC 1-1 10,059 2,727 27.1 $1.58 1.53 0.991,781.42,757.7 1633 rtAPV 1-1 8,536 2,155 25.2 $1.60 1.42 1.011,513.12,139.8 1632 rtClass 1-1 10,762 2,661 24.7 $1.55 1.40 0.981,904.92,726.0
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Report update AP+PS+LRAt Brian's request, I studied how many winners this object got based on field size, specifically 5-6 horse fields, 7-10, and 11+. I used all races in 2024 with zero first-time starters.
Field size = 5-6: 72% of the winners ranked first in one more of the following factors: PSR, FTLR (factor 78), FTB2L3 (factor 82), tSC (1625), or tAPV (1633).
Field size = 7-10: 63% of the winners ranked first in one of more of the five factors.
Field size = 11+: 52% of the winners ranked first in one or more of the factors. -
Report update AP+PS+LRI did a study on Brian's "RSE" object. This study uses 2025 races with 0 FTS. I used the PickMaster in HSH to see how the six factors in the RSE object performed in these races. For the first run, I also added public choice and morning line to give some perspective. Here are the results after the first run:
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1 rPubCh 1-1 2,746 1,041 37.9 $1.73 2.84 1.04 367.1 997.5
174 rPSR 1-1 2,913 888 30.5 $1.61 2.29 1.00 388.1 886.8
176 rML 1-1 2,697 878 32.6 $1.64 2.44 1.01 360.3 872.8
82 rFTB2L3 1-1 3,008 777 25.8 $1.64 1.87 1.01 396.2 731.6
1625 rtSC 1-1 3,306 701 21.2 $1.56 1.60 0.99 439.0 711.6
1632 rtClass 1-1 3,600 699 19.4 $1.57 1.46 1.00 478.3 700.1
1633 rtAPV 1-1 2,728 548 20.1 $1.70 1.50 1.01 364.3 542.9
I chose PSR R1 because it had the highest number of pays (other than public choice). I used it to make a rule. When making a rule using the PickMaster, you eliminate the races in which the #1 ranked horse in PSR won. Then you run the PickMaster again to see which factor has the most pays/winners in its first rank in races in which the PSR #1 ranked horse didn't win.
After the second run, I made a rule with rtClass since it had the highest number of "Pays". Even higher than public choice!
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1632 rtClass 1-1 2,616 378 14.4 $1.56 1.10 1.00 344.0 377.9
Then I made a rule with FTB2L3. FYI: Public Choice had 274 "Pays".
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
82 rFTB2L3 1-1 1,303 229 17.6 $1.65 1.37 1.06 167.2 216.3
Next rule:
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1625 rtSC 1-1 1,262 163 12.9 $1.45 1.00 0.95 163.5 171.0
I made a final rule with rtSC.
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1633 rtAPV 1-1 932 114 12.2 $1.83 0.95 1.02 120.3 111.8
Then I was left with:
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
78 rFTLR 1-1 689 91 13.2 $1.64 1.04 0.93 87.7 98.1
What's the takeaway here? In this 2,683-race sample, horses that ranked first in either of these five factors won 1,863 races (69%). That means that 31% of the time, the winner did not rank first in any of these factors. -
Report update AP+PS+LRMy comment refers to using the 62:x and 88:x figures to segment races and build separate handicapping and betting strategies. Those percentages are based on the AI line/probabilities.
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Report update AP+PS+LRThe best part is that it it’s built on using AI odds instead of ML or the tote.
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How Favorites Performed In 20241. You want to use IV or PIV to compare the different “demographics”. Not hit rate.
2. From 2022-2023, the IVs for favorites dips from April to September. In 2024, April and June were normal (roughly 2.72).
3. Sorry, there’s no field size per track data in this study. But if you have HSH, I’ll help you figure it out.
4. I have no idea what happened to KD. -
How Favorites Performed In 2024
320- FTS Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins 0 26,007 10,122 38.9% $1.70 -12.6% 2.69 1.03 $4.38 1.19 1.0 3,764.60 9,834.09 1 2,060 791 38.4% $1.68 -13.4% 2.84 1.01 $4.38 1.19 1.0 278.59 780.60 2 1,256 493 39.3% $1.74 -10.7% 2.96 1.06 $4.43 1.25 1.0 166.29 463.67 3 706 274 38.8% $1.75 -9.9% 2.99 1.08 $4.52 1.30 1.0 91.53 254.68 4 499 186 37.3% $1.79 -7.5% 2.94 1.08 $4.79 1.40 1.0 63.32 172.55 5 308 92 29.9% $1.52 -15.5% 2.45 0.90 $5.10 1.50 1.0 37.59 102.28 6 179 67 37.4% $1.75 -9.4% 3.12 1.07 $4.66 1.36 1.0 21.47 62.83 7 119 37 31.1% $1.58 -13.6% 2.85 0.99 $5.09 1.64 1.0 13.00 37.41 8 70 21 30.0% $1.75 -6.5% 2.97 0.95 $5.83 1.63 1.0 7.07 22.06 9 28 8 28.6% $1.70 -7.6% 3.05 1.02 $5.95 1.95 1.0 2.62 7.87 10 13 5 38.5% $2.14 3.9% 4.35 1.39 $5.57 2.00 1.0 1.15 3.60 11 5 1 20.0% $0.80 -60.6% 2.33 0.65 $3.98 1.69 1.0 0.43 1.54 12 1 1 100.0% $4.26 100.0% 12.50 2.56 $4.26 1.13 1.0 0.08 0.39 -
How Favorites Performed In 2024
310- Field Size Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins 2 6 6 100.0% $2.42 100.0% 2.00 1.46 $2.42 0.21 1.0 3.00 4.10 3 108 59 54.6% $1.66 -33.0% 1.64 1.03 $3.03 0.56 1.0 36.00 57.40 4 730 350 47.9% $1.61 -28.5% 1.92 0.99 $3.37 0.71 1.0 182.50 353.54 5 3,059 1,415 46.3% $1.72 -16.4% 2.31 1.03 $3.71 0.85 1.0 611.80 1,369.94 6 6,527 2,763 42.3% $1.71 -14.1% 2.54 1.04 $4.05 1.04 1.0 1,088.05 2,656.97 7 6,921 2,748 39.7% $1.72 -12.0% 2.78 1.04 $4.33 1.17 1.0 989.01 2,647.25 8 5,376 1,950 36.3% $1.69 -11.6% 2.90 1.02 $4.67 1.33 1.0 672.00 1,916.68 9 3,693 1,292 35.0% $1.73 -9.2% 3.15 1.04 $4.95 1.46 1.0 410.29 1,245.12 10 2,632 840 31.9% $1.64 -11.4% 3.19 1.00 $5.15 1.61 1.0 263.20 837.87 11 1,200 363 30.3% $1.63 -10.9% 3.33 1.00 $5.39 1.74 1.0 109.08 363.28 12 953 298 31.3% $1.78 -5.9% 3.75 1.07 $5.71 1.84 1.0 79.38 278.84 13 27 11 40.7% $2.27 7.6% 5.29 1.47 $5.57 2.00 1.0 2.08 7.46 14 19 3 15.8% $0.69 -55.3% 2.21 0.59 $4.37 2.09 1.0 1.36 5.11 -
How Favorites Performed In 2024
241- AgeYng Win Bets Starts Wins Pct $Net Opt IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPCh ExWins PExWins Young 4,393 1,705 38.8% $1.73 -10.9% 2.87 1.05 $4.47 1.25 1.0 593.48 1,617.76 Old 26,858 10,393 38.7% $1.70 -12.6% 2.70 1.03 $4.39 1.20 1.0 3,854.2610,125.82
PickMaster
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