Thanks!

Jeff,

Aren't abRx and abRy highly correlated? Also, what do you mean by "doing as union"?

Thanks!!!

Andrew

Jim,

I'm impressed. That's an unheard-of ROI. Good job.

My research looks at ~3,000 races, splitting them into development (where the model is created), test (seeing if the development model is for real or a fluke), and validation (seeing if the model fades after a month) data sets. I've been creating predictive models for 25 years (mostly in the medical field), and I've learned that all models definitely have a "shelf life" . This should be the case for horse racing, where tracks, purses, weather conditions, etc... change frequently,

So you may have found the golden bullet (killing off whales). But my experience tells me that most models (or at least, the ones I've created) don't persist.

I use about 5 columns in my predictive models (different columns for the models). The best seem to be the morning line (duh), AB, the Neal, pcrH, and Rey4. Are other DET people seeing similar or different results?

Tom,

I believe OBJ is the geometric mean of ML and A I_Line. That is, the square root of the product of ML and AI_Line.

Then they're going totally off the large rebate they get.

My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY.

O.K. Thanks. I'll go back and check what might have gone wrong.

Jimmy,

I hope you recover quickly and are back in the saddle soon! (Pun intended)

O.K. Will do in a few weeks (I'm actually going on vacation next week)

Thanks!

In other words, are low values good?

The formulas don't matter. But what direction (increasing or decreasing values) is considered good?

I'll sned you a Zoom invite for a Monday meeting.

What's your e-mail?

Sounds good Jim. What's your e-mail?

I've got scads of ideas and have been conducting scientific research studies for four decades.

I didn't know about your terrible tragedy. So, my condolences and prayers are with you. :pray:

That's easy compared to picking winners in 2yr, old maiden races.