Good stuff. Thanks for explaining this.

I’ll share some more work-ups in the coming days and do a better job with explaining things.

Jim,

By low PSR, ES and Class, are you referring to your HDW data?

RE: the 8 being a single point below the projected POR (high RegSpeed LO of the frontrunner), I don’t find a single point to be a strong enough basis for “tossing” a runner.

The notes I was writing were for illustrative purposes. And yes, pencil/paper can be for lack of better words, a mundane/monotonous task. Unfortunately, DRF doesn’t offer data files for TimeformUS where figures and other data can be extrapolated into a homegrown program/database.

Hi Jim,

Here’s an excerpt from an email I sent Dave last night. I’ll leave it here for your consumption and feedback:

I’ve attached a race that I worked (yesterday). I didn’t bet. I’m trying to get into the habit of working/pre-handicapping races in this fashion so that I can readily identify future patterns and race scenarios. I’m not so much concerned about result as I am the process at this point in time. It’s likely going to take hundreds… make that thousands… of races of repetition to really get good at it.

On my worksheet, which is in Program# order, I have each runner’s LO and HI RegSpeed, plus the Best of the Last 3 (comparable) races. By comparable in this example, I used races on today’s surface, regardless of distance, excluding wet tracks and turf.

I use the TimeformUS Past Performances, so I use their main Speed Figure (which is adjusted for pace). They also present a Composite Early and Late rating with their interpretation of visual running style. I take the difference in the Early/Late ratings to create a composite “Energy” number, reminiscent of the later Sartin programs and RDSS.

The result? Probably a roundabout variation on the various iterations of NewPace.

In hindsight, a Win bet dutch of 7 and 8 looks rather desirable given the construction of and facts that we know about this particular race. To be honest, I didn’t have exactas or other exotics in mind, so I don’t have any insights to pass along.

The winner here was definitely within reach with the right tools, strategy, and mindset. At 17-1, it definitely didn’t “jump off the page” but by leveraging its marginal contender status with its price, it would have been a low risk reward.

Timeform PPs:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/eughtcs8y57omw4em5ugr/OPX02.pdf?rlkey=l50lncgai2p04lzytitnmtpeb&st=2d9wjc8c&dl=0

Worksheet:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1k6uvtg2lsb1r3q9owfd0/IMG_9555.JPG?rlkey=kihexqq6hplurbji0r2edp9db&st=phizz2it&dl=0

Contenders/observations:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ow45xrku5sx81bioi9mzx/IMG_9556.JPG?rlkey=5dyji7kuwfney7joam8wzt2qk&st=5c0aqi0a&dl=0

Result chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/seuxycqhif4a3io1q4kv1/IMG_9557.jpg?rlkey=5a5gjnun9emyozu5kklg9fp3l&st=eu0ckxty&dl=0