Nailed it

The great part about these sessions is that everyone involved in these sessions takes new stuff away - including me!

Did the Is Early factor help?

1. Whales win on rebates.
2. ADW's pay for the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.
3. Tracks sell the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.

LOL... there's room for us on this list. — Dio

Dio,

They can't stop us because we've CALIBRATED THEM!

Just make sure that you don't miss this seminar!
https://www.community.horsestreet.com/discussion/1244/get-you-winning-seminar-part-1-march-25/p1

Then they're going totally off the large rebate they get. — Andrew Kramer

Yes, that's how it works.
It's also how I arrived at the idea of using the hedge horses for hit rate knowing I couldn't make a profit.

My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY. — Andrew Kramer

The recognized Whale business model has been LOSE 3.5% per wagered dollar.

There is an old Whale axiom: "If you're making a flat profit, you aren't betting enough."

I've always been curious about that. Unfortunately, not something I would understand. BTW, I'm guessing it's 5:00 AM there. Get a life!! — Dio

LOL
In bed at 8:30 and works well.

But "get a life" is a really cool idea.
:wink:

Statsitical.

Actually, they do not use AI.
The use Iterative Regression.

That's why we've got such an edge.

Hi Andrew, I was going to say that even if the favorites are down, it wouldn't laffect the number Dave gave us above by much. maybe going from 37.9 down to 37.2. — Gillycapper

Actually, looking at the last quarter of 2025, Favs hit 44% - glad to see that has subsided a little.

But the reason for 2026 changes appears to be a single, dominant Whale team having moving their bets from Favs to 2nd choices.

Your data is wrong.
Current hit rate on Favs is 37.9%.

It is DOWN from 4th quarter last year, by ~4%.

This is 2026 data.
(5 days behind)

Then why would pars be obsolete?

Or do you mean, "If I use BRIS data, why would I need to buy par times?"

The invention of the BRIS Pace Ratings numbers would seem to make the need for PARs obsolete, since the BRIS is "are fully adjusted for track variations, comparable across North American tracks". Is my thinking correct? — Tim Romero

Respectfully, I would say that your thinking is very NOT CORRECT.

I assume that you know I've been in the Par business for over 3 decades.

I will further assume that you know BRIS has pars somewhere that are used to build those pace numbers.

My question to you would be, "Why would you assume that BRIS' ratings would be better than anyone else's?"

along with what you said I am wondering about "concentration". and if/how that interacts with it. I have a mild issue with that. It is not always what it should be. I am 83 — donald altemose

I remember you.
This is a favorite personal topic of mine and I study it very seriously.

Maybe I should also add--mark cramer once asked his readers if any of us know anyone who handicaps horses on a regular basis (not necessarily every day but regularly) who has ever been diagnosed with some kind of dementia. I have also asked the same question of OTB people and others- I don't know of any and Mark never printed of any that did. If he did I am not aware of them. — donald altemose

It definitely keeps your mind active, which fights off dementia.

Anti-dementia is something I take very seriously.
Several years ago, I discovered that I'd lost 15 points off my IQ score.

When I spoke to my primary care doctor, she gave me the standard answer: "As you age, it is reasonable that your intellect will wain a bit."

I didn't like that answer, so I did some research and found an understanding of WHY - and many were easily fixed. Sleep meds were the big one.

Eventually I not only recovered the 15 points I'd lost but gained even beyond my starting point!

Not sure why you'd say that you wasted my time.
You're a guy I have a lot of respect for so perhaps I misunderstood the question.

Your response seems to indicate a negative response.
Perhaps I misunderstood what you were asking - or you didn't want anything beyond a simple answer. (I do that sometimes.)
_____________
I thought you were asking if you should use the pars to create ratings AFTER you selected the pacelines.

My answer was that you should do it BEFORE and do all of the pacelines.
_____________
If you'd like to tell me exactly what you want, please try again.

I have a question as it is all a learning process particularly in the design of your own software for personal use and since Dave's video's have always been of great teaching importance, I wanted to ask when it comes to Pace handicapping and discerning your par figures. My question is to clarify as I get confused during my coding particularly with large batches of past performance and results files. When a handicapper is handicapping and choosing a paceline and goes to form his figures, the question is if the last race the horse ran was a mile on the grass, is the handicapper using the mile par time to make his figures or is every horse have to use the race coming up as the par?????? — Chuck

Actually, your software should build the appropriate RATING COLUMNS for ALL the races as they should be considered in the paceline selection process.

While DET (and HSH) both have fully functioning pace models (i.e. you can still select pacelines) that is really very old technology. Like early 1990s.

Personally, I've not selected a paceline since about 1994.

The paceline selection approach is pretty much dead.
Same with make-a-line-and-bet-into-the-tote.

In both scenarios the handicapper finds his perceived overlays pounded from projected profit to losses as the end result.

Yes, same experience for me.

Evelyn Wood Reading Dynamics is still out there, but not very relevant any more.

200-400 are simply the actual raw rating.
Thus, a horse might have (say) a 97 rating, and be ranked #2 in the field.
With the top horse being a 98,


7000s are based upon STRENGTH OF FIELD.
Now, imagine that the STRENGTH of the FIELD (loosely, average of top 4) = 96.
98 (above) shows a 102 because 98 is 2 lengths above the strength.
97 (above) gets a 101.

This would be a guess but (logically) that horse had SOMETHING(s) of value in that object.

Remember that you can still open the object back in the MY HANDICAP window and actually look at the rankings.