I know a gentleman named Dan Silver who worked for NYRA. He's an excellent guy and tells me Andy is truly a good man. I've seen moments that make me wonder. — Tony Kofalt

As someone who has had a lifetime of struggles getting along with others, I can appreciate that could very possibly be the case. Either way, it's just simpler to give everyone the benefit of doubt.

As my mentor says, "We tend to judge others by their ACTIONS and ourselves by our INTENTIONS.

Guilty, your honor.

Serling was rude to Dave twice recently, so I have lost interest in his schtic — Tom

I must have missed that.

But I don't go looking for such stuff.
(Except on my home turf. LOL)

Rude is his style.
The people who love him think he's the greatest.
He's certainly a better handicapping analyst than I am, though I'd guess my long-term performance is probably at least as good.

I was set straight by God's gidt to horseracing, Andy Serling, that there
is no racing there until Saturday. — Tom

:rofl:

That's correct.

Ah.
I thought that was a harness meet.

Horseshoe Indianapolis 05-09-2023--- 2nd Race

6 Furlongs. Clm 5000b Purse $14,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2022 - 2023 SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE — Mickey Arnold

I actually believe I have seen this one before.
Literally, this one.
Since I've never handicapped a harness race, I have to assume that it was at some southern track.

Does anyone have any idea why there have been so many scratches this year?

Good fortune to all of you.

I'm thinking it's a trick question-- so Race 2. Guessing one of the ES78's presses the other initially out of the gate, so much so that the horse being pressed makes the lone lead at the 1st call. The one ES78 horse breaks and then waits for competition that isn't there, isn't really pressed, and never gets the lone lead. — Jim Pommier

I asked the question because it is really germane to your original post.


Not a trick question.

• The issue is that the world knows there is only one front runner in the race.
• That world includes trainers and jockeys.
• At least 1 other horse will challenge for the lead because they all know that if he isn't challenged, he'll be gone.
• The problem is we don't know who.

Predictability

• The more front runners there are in the race, the more reliable the pace will be.
• The more reliable the pace will be the more reliable the handicapping will be.
• The more reliable the handicapping, the lower the likely odds on the winner.

The pace model in the Derby has always been 1st call.
It's also been like low 4 public choices.

But, based upon the PREDICTABILITY part of this post, I'd say there is potential for medium or even high prices.
______________
Remember that I am a guy who doesn't actually take any big race seriously.

Interesting Stat:

You have two races:
Race 1 has only one ES 78 horse.
Race 2 has two ES78 horses.

Which race is more likely to produce an actual LONE F at the 1st call?
(Meaning, which only one horse within 1 length at the 1st call.)

Interesting. I would think the horse still needs to have indicators that it is ready to step outside the maiden ranks. — RanchWest

Not the same.
On is a choice and the other is forced.

I think it would not necessarily have to be a maiden winner. Some horses step outside the maiden ranks before breaking their maiden. — RanchWest

That's logical.

But Interestingly, those horses actually perform better than the maiden winners do.

PS: The theory is that the maiden winner could take quite a while to find the level in claiming (or NW Alw) where it could be competitive.

Thanks ...... I like the idea of horses leaving the maiden ranks with a speed figure(s) which can be questioned at the new class level. Also, shippers ...... can look at that from both the track and the trainer perspective. — Jim Pommier

On the topic of maiden winners...

When I was selecting pacelines, I'd penalize a maiden winner 5 lengths until it finished 2nd or better (or within a neck of the winner) in a non-maiden event.

This really seemed to improve the results.

As you can imagine, I've got a lot of opinions on this topic.

Rather than dominate the conversation (which can be my nature), you guys talk and I'll offer up whatever you feel is necessary.

There IS a way to win with the whales, but it's not Make a Line and Bet Into it.

Obviously, marketing would be over the top, but I really don't have a problem with discussions about @RanchWest's product.

It does.
Those are the best pace numbers I've ever seen and far better than what are generated using my own par times.

I know his formula (because he shared it with me), and could implement and improve it using my pars. But that would just not be cool.

So, I continue to utilize his numbers.

BTW, in dirt route races the best ever F1 top rank is slightly profitable ($2.02 $net).

WOW!

I love the way you leverage your opinion.

Does what I describe hold enough interest for you to consider using the software?