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Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?Does this make sense? — Chuck
You have described many potential subsets, leading to many permutations of data.
1. Regression or progression in speed ratings - i.e. form cycle
2. Considering...
age
number of starts
class changes
trainers class management
This is a very complex study.
Respectfully, because speed ratings are so far down on the MAKE-A-DIFFERENCE-IN-PROFITABILITY LIST, I doubt that anything of value would be found.
Today's racing environment is just far different and BEING COMPETITIVE TODAY demands a far different way of looking at things. -
How Favorites Performed In 2024I don't see KD in the track list - is that intentional? — Tom Atwater
KD is a "circuit 0" track. That is, it is a very small or non-standard track.
Most people would not want to include circ0 because it would skew the data. -
How Favorites Performed In 2024@PickMaster
I'm confused.
Ah... Favorites.
Also, look at your posts. (Edit one)
I wrapped them in "code" tags. -
4 Types of RacesI don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions. — Jim Pommier
And I agree with your position as well. -
No wonder I can't win at SunlandI used to do well at that track but in the recent few years it fell off my list.
Besides, there are just so many races to choose from in my 3 hours + one race. -
Gulfstream closing??To be clear... if the state allows them to have a casino without a race track, then the race track is history.
Very ugly. -
what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?Ryan Pip has a newsletter about handicapping. https://substack.com/@ryanpip — Mark
Thanks, Mark. -
what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?@Jim Pommier,
100%.
In addition, when one keeps a track profile, they must be aware that the mix of running styles in a given race is a huge factor.
For example, a Quirin ES Points race that had 8877 is far different than a race with 5433.
This forces one to keep multiple models.
Would your experience support that? -
what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?How would you know there is a PACE bias?
Are you keeping a model? -
January is Difficult - in case you haven't noticed...Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures? — Jeff Capper
Of course!
But you had me at:
I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. — Jeff Capper -
UNBELIEVABLE UPDATE COMING!!Brian got another update today!
Hoping for another on Thursday morning. -
UNBELIEVABLE UPDATE COMING!!It really is looking like way beyond what I had hoped for.
Thanks, Brian -
RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and aboveI'll find some docs for you.
If you have Percentages & Probabilities they're all explained in there. -
RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and aboveI tested 2 more segments of races with similar results but the QUALs were 45% wins and almost all short prices.
Wound up with a $Net of $1.97 - not bad as a hedge.
Did not track the losers but it was quite obvious that they were a huge losing proposition.
Unlike the 1st sample, the ratio of plays was split with about 35% (qualified) and 65% (BALO). Many of the BALO races contained TWO horses. In fact, that was a big reason for the qualification.
This is the kind of research that comes from the public session we did yesterday - it often turns into a giant whiteboard session which leads to new ideas for research.
____________________________
In yesterday's video (not rendered yet) I mentioned what it takes to join the research group.
There are 3 requirements:
1. Own HSH with a substantial database
OR
1. Have a mind for research that you are willing to share with the group.
2. Be willing to share what you know, etc. with the group.
3. Be a PROLIFIC PUBLIC POSTER who is committed to growing our community of horse bettors.
_________________________________
Respectfully, if your goal is to simply improve your own play, without the community aspect, you do not fit the requirements.
If you are such a person please reach out privately so we can figure out how to get you onboard. -
RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and aboveUNQUALIFIED BETS
(A new BALO!)
Race Prg Horse Win 2/08/24 GP 02 6 SGT. PEPPER 3.40 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 GP 09 5 TATANKA _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 FG 06 6 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 GP 04 1 PEP RALLY _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 MVR06 4 LIVING THE DREAM _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 MVR08 1 MOBIL MEMORY 2/08/24 MVR08 4 KAT TRAX _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 FG 09 6 DEER CROSSING 2/08/24 FG 09 7 UNIFIED REPORT _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 TP 02 9 RIBALDRY (IRE) _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 PEN02 2 CHARM ALARM 2/08/24 PEN02 4 GIRVINIZED _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED02 5 FROSTY BREW 6.00 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 MVR04 1 ESTILO CLASICO 2/08/24 MVR04 3 SCRATCHOFF _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 PEN03 4 GIUSEPPE _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED03 2 MAGNOLIA SPEED _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 TP 04 8 TIGER PAW (IRE) _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED04 3 RAZZ 2/08/24 DED04 9 DEAL WITH HIM 3.80 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED05 2 SERENA'S SERENADE 3.60 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 TP 06 1 I'M SO NAUGHTY 2/08/24 TP 06 7 SHE'S SPLENDID _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 PEN06 1 CONTINENTAL DIVIDE _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 CT 05 6 STRATEGIC _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED07 5 FLOWER CAT 4.00 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 CT 06 4 GRAN ANDREWS 4.80 2/08/24 CT 06 5 HANALEI'S HOUDINI _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 PEN08 1 LUCCA'S LEGACY 2/08/24 PEN08 4 BRIGHT PATH 4.80 _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 DED08 3 RUN FOR JOY _________________________________________________ 2/08/24 TP 09 7 NORBERT _________________________________________________ 7-34 30.40 $0.89
7 wins from 34 bets and a $net of $0.89 per $2 wager. -
RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and aboveYesterday, @ponyplayer and I tested what I called the KILLER object.
I tested and he watched.
Basically, we divided ALL AI Line horses under 2/1 into two groups:
Qualified & Not Qualified.
QUALIFIED BETS
Race Prg Horse Win 2/08/24 GP 01 5 MYSTIC SUNRISE 2.80 2/08/24 MVR01 2 FUEGO CALIENTE 2/08/24 GP 03 2 ANDIE ONE 2/08/24 MVR02 1 PRANCIPANTS 7.60 2/08/24 MVR03 8 INDY PRINCESS KOKO ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 FG 01 1 RUN DREAMING 5.00 2/08/24 GP 05 4 SHARAR 2/08/24 FG 02 1 SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN 2.80 2/08/24 MVR05 6 HARSH TRUTH 2/08/24 GP 06 5 JOE DI BAGGIO 4-10 18.20 ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 FG 03 5 HIGH TIDE 2/08/24 FG 04 3 STRAWBERRY SUNDAE 2/08/24 MVR07 3 SWEET UNIQUE 7.60 2/08/24 GP 08 6 PRETTY LIAM 2/08/24 FG 08 5 CARPIS 5-15 25.80 ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 TP 01 8 STUNNEM 8.04 2/08/24 PEN01 5 FASHIONISTA 11.40 2/08/24 DED01 10 SLEW SKIES 2/08/24 FG 10 6 NERVY 3.20 2/08/24 TP 03 6 SAVANNAMARIE 8-20 48.44 ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 CT 01 6 FIRST HOMESTEAD 2/08/24 PEN04 6 UNCLE DAR 4.00 2/08/24 CT 02 4 CRUZ IN THE CASTLE 6.20 2/08/24 TP 05 3 GATITA SUAVE 2/08/24 CT 03 5 KEEP ON SPURRIN 10-25 58.64 ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 PEN05 1 BACK FORTY 4.60 2/08/24 CT 04 1 LATE NITE MISTRESS 2/08/24 DED06 1 ASTERN BANKER 2/08/24 PEN07 6 DOWSER 2/08/24 TP 07 5 UP AND DOWN 11-30 63.24 ______________________________________________________________________ 2/08/24 CT 07 4 DUNCAN IDAHO 2.60 2/08/24 CT 08 6 DE'S CASTLE 12-32 65.84 $2.06 ______________________________________________________________________
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RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and aboveRank of 4th or worse...
Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW 158 rcPwr 4-9 317 91 28.7 $1.46 1.78 0.90 51.0 101.0 83 rFTB2L4 4-9 339 97 28.6 $1.49 1.81 0.92 53.7 104.9 157 rcFT 4-9 151 42 27.8 $1.52 1.72 0.90 24.5 46.5 95 rPWB2L3 4-9 503 155 30.8 $1.53 1.96 0.95 78.9 162.3 75 rSCB1E 4-9 862 274 31.8 $1.54 2.05 0.97 133.7 282.6 1655 rgLPHi 4-9 757 226 29.9 $1.54 1.91 0.95 118.5 239.1
Dave Schwartz
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