.

You're correct.
I spoke to an attorney friend about how a class action suit actually works when there isn't a potential giant paycheck for the law practice. He said, it generally takes about $500k just to get to the trial date - and this was about 25 years ago.

Ryan Dickey is a fine man - I know him personally.

Could we employ the morning line in the handicapping for the method that you display here? Or do you still recommend against that, and instead to use an "artificial" morning line? Also, in the last video you mentioned an alternative way of being able to play the chaos horses. Would that involve playing all of the horses going off at above natural odds? — Dave Salvini

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Could we employ the morning line in the handicapping for the method that you display here?
I assume you mean in HSH.
But even not, yes, absolutely.

The only challenge in doing it by hand is that you have to adjust for scratches so that the odds aren't out of whack. In the next couple of weeks I will put up a spreadsheet that would make that easier.
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Would that involve playing all of the horses going off at above natural odds?
The best way is not currently available to you. (In the videos, I briefly mentioned "The Neal". That's not something you could reproduce because its 100% AI based.

But other than that, you simply take the longest MLs. Natural odds does not apply to ML, because the scale is different.

Shorter answer: "I think Longest Morning Line method is best ."

Took at stab at doing a little modeling on the races I handicapped yesterday using the Pace 5-Column approach. Not sure if I'm doing this right.
There were 34 races. 14 of the 34 races were won by a horse that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. However, 10 out of these 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk - (Trainer: Today's Track).
Next, looked at a handful of races from last week. 14 winners that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. 5 out of the 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk. Not quite as good as yesterday.
Again, not sure if I'm doing this right or if these results have any significance. — Jim Pommier

Now I have a little time to respond properly.

What you'll notice with this non-DET approach is that the L horses do not dominate.

There must be 2 models - L's & H's.

When you look at the L winners you'll get a drastically different look than when you look at the H winners.

That point might have been a little overlooked last night.

I think Saturday we'll do 2 sessions:
8:30 to 9:30 will be a shorter version of last night and then 10:30 to 12noon will be to actually work on modeling with the TWO spreadsheets.

I watched all the videos. Good stuff! Unfortunately, I couldn't make the meeting. — Dio

We'll get another going - probably Saturday.
We'll also work on the spreadsheet.

I can put the spreadsheet in your DropBox if you like.

If you attended last night's CHALK TALK conversation, I've put the 5-Column Spreadsheet in your DropBox.

For those who didn't watch the videos, please do so and post here.
We'll do another meeting as soon as we get a few responses.

Meanwhile, I will attempt to meet with any of the people below in a meeting late today.

ping: @ponyplayer,@Jim Pommier,@Ira Yorn,@Gillycapper,@Greg Gentzler,@Jeff Capper

Took at stab at doing a little modeling on the races I handicapped yesterday using the Pace 5-Column approach. Not sure if I'm doing this right.
There were 34 races. 14 of the 34 races were won by a horse that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. However, 10 out of these 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk - (Trainer: Today's Track).
Next, looked at a handful of races from last week. 14 winners that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. 5 out of the 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk. Not quite as good as yesterday.
Again, not sure if I'm doing this right or if these results have any significance. — Jim Pommier

(Ping @Gillycapper)

First order of biz for me to do today is to add some robustness to the Model spreadsheet and post it up for you guys. I'll try to have it up by 11am.
[Edit] Looks more like noon.

Excellent videos Dave!! If you had told me that PSR Rank 1 horses that are NOT 1st or 2nd Public Choices only win at 12.2%-- I would not have believed you. The same with FTBL2 and FTB2L3.
Also, "Horses bet down to the Favorite are better bets than horses that were projected to be the Favorite to begin with". — Jim Pommier

Most important was the SIMPLE STRATEGY that I built for the non-DET users - from DET.

In fact, I think we should do a MEETING to discuss all of this.
Going to check with @ponyplayer

Content should be available now.
Please reply here if you can see it.

What are you actually looking for?

You're talking about HDW?

I'll look for an updated link.

We get data every day from them.

You’re working hard at this stuff.

Let me know if you need some time.

Yes
And, when a column contains a minus sign, the purpose is a reminder that LOW is still better.

They are different formulaic approaches to using PSR, CPW, RTG.

The formulas really don't matter, do they?

I think there were two very important takeaways:

1. No matter which approach we used, we had almost every race in our top 3, and usually top 2 horses.
That included a couple of $20+ horses and a whole bunch of exactas.

2. The quote you made: "I have never clicked any of the buttons you clicked tonight."

Saturday everyone will have the version Tony saw tonight.

Sorry that you are struggling.

Perhaps we should do a one-on-one and you can show me what you're doing.

Perhaps I can offer ideas for improvement.

It is a great place to live.

Reno is hardly a gambling town any more.
But they have jacked the prices on everything.
LOL

t's Belterra park!! what do you expect. somebody came along and placed a 500 win bet. :rofl: I remember one night I loved a horse at CT and the odds were 9/1. I bet 800 — Gillycapper

Great story.

Had a business partner about 30 years ago who went to a racetrack in Romania.

He and his wife had a dining room table, looking over the track.

He asked the server why all the people kept coming by staring at him. The waiter said that they wanted to get a look at the rich American who was making every horse the favorite.

He was betting $25 a race.