Yes, I'm very much interested in this. I don't have any new ideas other than the work you already did for $net and =>3-1 odds at GPX, TAM and PRX. So I'm open to any suggestions and the BALO idea may be a good start.

@Jim Pommier & @PickMaster

You have both been added to the research group.

I would be interested but I do have limited time because I run my own company. But I do have some good ideas I believe.

Duffy, here's a BALO idea I thought of (not sure if it's something we can do by simply running reports). Contenders with ML 2-1 or less. Which factors point to these contenders being a BALO. Maybe the low $net factors? Opposite of picking winners. IOW, contenders that Rank 1 or 2 in these factors are BALO's. Create an Object we can then test.
If not, I like you're idea of back-checking 1,000 BALO races and coming up with the factors that way.

I've got scads of ideas and have been conducting scientific research studies for four decades.

Not a subscriber but an interested party as I have had discussions with Dave in the past and we have had personal discussions on his design of DeTerminator etc. I would be interested just in terms of Speed Ratings in your win % and pricing in terms of Improvement or regression in Speed numbers for Classes with less than 7-8 starts and we would all assume that this would show numbers for 2 Yr Olds or horses not making their debuts until 3 or 4. I am just interested in seeing how to compare drops in speed or improvements in their speed. Up in Class or Drops. does not matter just trying to see average drops or jumps after trainers/owners make their decisions on where to fit their horses as they drop and rise in their classes. Does this make sense?

Chuck: I’m sorry but I don’t know how to test that.

Does this make sense? — Chuck

You have described many potential subsets, leading to many permutations of data.

1. Regression or progression in speed ratings - i.e. form cycle
2. Considering...
age
number of starts
class changes
trainers class management

This is a very complex study.

Respectfully, because speed ratings are so far down on the MAKE-A-DIFFERENCE-IN-PROFITABILITY LIST, I doubt that anything of value would be found.

Today's racing environment is just far different and BEING COMPETITIVE TODAY demands a far different way of looking at things.

I see, I understand the profitability angle. I was wondering how your software handled the profitability based on the many factors of handicapping but I have found one of the hardest parts of the game and the understanding of the improvement or decline particulary as many trainers today take long lay offs and you see good size dips or good size improvements in their given speed figure. I understand now why men like Pizzolla and others use to recommend leaving maiden special weight races alone or would recommend passing certain races. In my studies, during 2024 I have more or less keeping eyes and stats on tracks and class in terms of races that pull off an odds of 10-1. I guess I would ask Dave, how does DeTerminator in terms of your thousand of AI and handicapping angles. Maybe it would be easier to ask if it shows more of a percentage of your Chaos races, are they garnered to cheaper claiming, or special weights ? More or less curious and hope you are well as we have not spoke in awhile.

Chuck from Toronto

DET removes the issue of segmentation of races.

Essentially, after DET has done its work, the races have been normalized to reflect that.

This is a very difficult thing for players to adjust to because they think there is more to do.

The role of the player is different.