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RESEARCH from HSH: aML 38% and above
  • Dave Schwartz
    371
    This is the first little Research Project I came up with.

    Epilogue: It worked out so well when tested that it needs to be public.
    ______________________
    First idea:
    Using the aML object (Artificial ML) on the top-ranked horse at 38% of pool or higher.

    This would be equivalent to a horse at 1.21 or below.

    Each of these factors represent what happens if the horse is NOT ranked 1st. (i.e. ranked 2nd or worse)

    Field       Rank     Starts   Pays   Pay%   $Net     IV    PIV    ExW   PExW
 176 rML     2-9        850    245   28.8  $1.53   1.73   0.98  141.2  249.1
  69 rSCB2L3 2-9      2,328    780   33.5  $1.58   2.09   0.98  372.9  793.7
 103 rPWB2E  2-9      2,816    953   33.8  $1.58   2.12   0.97  448.6  983.3
  68 rSCBL4  2-9      2,652    899   33.9  $1.59   2.13   0.99  423.0  912.2
  72 rSCAV2  2-9      2,293    771   33.6  $1.59   2.09   0.98  368.6  783.0
  67 rSCBL3  2-9      2,584    874   33.8  $1.59   2.12   0.98  412.6  889.6
1651 rgFTHi  2-9      2,442    801   32.8  $1.59   2.05   0.98  391.2  820.2
  93 rPWBL3  2-9      2,533    859   33.9  $1.59   2.14   0.98  402.1  878.4
 168 rcRtg   2-9      1,071    333   31.1  $1.60   1.91   0.98  174.7  338.4
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    371
    Rank of 4th or worse...

    Field       Rank     Starts   Pays   Pay%   $Net     IV    PIV    ExW   PExW
 158 rcPwr   4-9        317     91   28.7  $1.46   1.78   0.90   51.0  101.0
  83 rFTB2L4 4-9        339     97   28.6  $1.49   1.81   0.92   53.7  104.9
 157 rcFT    4-9        151     42   27.8  $1.52   1.72   0.90   24.5   46.5
  95 rPWB2L3 4-9        503    155   30.8  $1.53   1.96   0.95   78.9  162.3
  75 rSCB1E  4-9        862    274   31.8  $1.54   2.05   0.97  133.7  282.6
1655 rgLPHi  4-9        757    226   29.9  $1.54   1.91   0.95  118.5  239.1
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    371
    Yesterday, @ponyplayer and I tested what I called the KILLER object.

    I tested and he watched.

    Basically, we divided ALL AI Line horses under 2/1 into two groups:
    Qualified & Not Qualified.

    QUALIFIED BETS
    Race           Prg Horse                     Win 
 2/08/24 GP 01   5 MYSTIC SUNRISE            2.80
 2/08/24 MVR01   2 FUEGO CALIENTE                
 2/08/24 GP 03   2 ANDIE ONE                     
 2/08/24 MVR02   1 PRANCIPANTS               7.60
 2/08/24 MVR03   8 INDY PRINCESS KOKO            
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 FG 01   1 RUN DREAMING              5.00
 2/08/24 GP 05   4 SHARAR                        
 2/08/24 FG 02   1 SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN        2.80
 2/08/24 MVR05   6 HARSH TRUTH                   
 2/08/24 GP 06   5 JOE DI BAGGIO                  4-10    18.20
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 FG 03   5 HIGH TIDE                     
 2/08/24 FG 04   3 STRAWBERRY SUNDAE             
 2/08/24 MVR07   3 SWEET UNIQUE              7.60
 2/08/24 GP 08   6 PRETTY LIAM                   
 2/08/24 FG 08   5 CARPIS                         5-15    25.80
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 TP 01   8 STUNNEM                   8.04
 2/08/24 PEN01   5 FASHIONISTA              11.40
 2/08/24 DED01  10 SLEW SKIES                    
 2/08/24 FG 10   6 NERVY                     3.20
 2/08/24 TP 03   6 SAVANNAMARIE                   8-20    48.44
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 CT 01   6 FIRST HOMESTEAD               
 2/08/24 PEN04   6 UNCLE DAR                 4.00
 2/08/24 CT 02   4 CRUZ IN THE CASTLE        6.20
 2/08/24 TP 05   3 GATITA SUAVE                  
 2/08/24 CT 03   5 KEEP ON SPURRIN                10-25   58.64
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 PEN05   1 BACK FORTY                4.60
 2/08/24 CT 04   1 LATE NITE MISTRESS            
 2/08/24 DED06   1 ASTERN BANKER                 
 2/08/24 PEN07   6 DOWSER                        
 2/08/24 TP 07   5 UP AND DOWN                    11-30   63.24
______________________________________________________________________
 2/08/24 CT 07   4 DUNCAN IDAHO              2.60
 2/08/24 CT 08   6 DE'S CASTLE                    12-32   65.84   $2.06
______________________________________________________________________
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    371
    UNQUALIFIED BETS
    (A new BALO!)

    Race           Prg Horse                     Win 
 2/08/24 GP 02   6 SGT. PEPPER               3.40
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 GP 09   5 TATANKA                       
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 FG 06   6 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY              
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 GP 04   1 PEP RALLY                     
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 MVR06   4 LIVING THE DREAM              
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 MVR08   1 MOBIL MEMORY                  
 2/08/24 MVR08   4 KAT TRAX                      
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 FG 09   6 DEER CROSSING                 
 2/08/24 FG 09   7 UNIFIED REPORT                
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 TP 02   9 RIBALDRY (IRE)                
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 PEN02   2 CHARM ALARM                   
 2/08/24 PEN02   4 GIRVINIZED                    
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 2/08/24 DED02   5 FROSTY BREW               6.00
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 2/08/24 MVR04   1 ESTILO CLASICO                
 2/08/24 MVR04   3 SCRATCHOFF                    
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 PEN03   4 GIUSEPPE                      
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 2/08/24 DED03   2 MAGNOLIA SPEED                
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 2/08/24 TP 04   8 TIGER PAW (IRE)               
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 DED04   3 RAZZ                          
 2/08/24 DED04   9 DEAL WITH HIM             3.80
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 2/08/24 DED05   2 SERENA'S SERENADE         3.60
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 2/08/24 TP 06   1 I'M SO NAUGHTY                
 2/08/24 TP 06   7 SHE'S SPLENDID                
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 2/08/24 PEN06   1 CONTINENTAL DIVIDE            
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 2/08/24 CT 05   6 STRATEGIC                     
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 2/08/24 DED07   5 FLOWER CAT                4.00
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 CT 06   4 GRAN ANDREWS              4.80
 2/08/24 CT 06   5 HANALEI'S HOUDINI             
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 PEN08   1 LUCCA'S LEGACY                
 2/08/24 PEN08   4 BRIGHT PATH               4.80
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 DED08   3 RUN FOR JOY                   
_________________________________________________
 2/08/24 TP 09   7 NORBERT                       
_________________________________________________

7-34 30.40  $0.89

    7 wins from 34 bets and a $net of $0.89 per $2 wager.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    371
    I tested 2 more segments of races with similar results but the QUALs were 45% wins and almost all short prices.

    Wound up with a $Net of $1.97 - not bad as a hedge.

    Did not track the losers but it was quite obvious that they were a huge losing proposition.

    Unlike the 1st sample, the ratio of plays was split with about 35% (qualified) and 65% (BALO). Many of the BALO races contained TWO horses. In fact, that was a big reason for the qualification.

    This is the kind of research that comes from the public session we did yesterday - it often turns into a giant whiteboard session which leads to new ideas for research.
    ____________________________
    In yesterday's video (not rendered yet) I mentioned what it takes to join the research group.

    There are 3 requirements:
    1. Own HSH with a substantial database
    OR
    1. Have a mind for research that you are willing to share with the group.

    2. Be willing to share what you know, etc. with the group.

    3. Be a PROLIFIC PUBLIC POSTER who is committed to growing our community of horse bettors.
    _________________________________

    Respectfully, if your goal is to simply improve your own play, without the community aspect, you do not fit the requirements.

    If you are such a person please reach out privately so we can figure out how to get you onboard.
    Dave Schwartz Options
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