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  • Luan Machado eases before the line
    "Was it intentional?" is the $64,000 question.
    One is a mistake and the other is criminal.
  • New Update Friday 02/28 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Trying to close out this upgrade and, while it is very usable, it just isn't quite ready for Prime Time.

    Been at it for hours.
    Apparently not the CODE WARRIOR I was 20 years ago.

    Anyway, Brian's got the newest, and if he says it's "READY ENOUGH,", I'll release it today.

    Otherwise, it will have to be tomorrow early.

    What I am stuck on is the data columns not quite refreshing the way they should be and the new data does not make it to the Results.

    Stay tuned.

    Signed,
    The Tired Guy
    (Who isn't prepared to do 60-hr weeks any more.)
  • New Update Friday 02/28 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Ponyplayer, will you guys have a public video for this? — Mark

    Mark,
    @ponyplayer will send you the invite.

    Dave
  • Report update AP+PS+LR
    Mostly Brian.
  • Report update AP+PS+LR
    ↪ponyplayer

    This has amazing possibilities!

    Can't wait for you to teach this!
  • Dave's "Key to the Mint Strategy" from Wed 02-12 meeting
    Special note:
    This was written a LONG TIME AGO.

    Back when you could actually use the tote board. - I'd guess sometime in the 1990s.

    Ironically, just today - and I do mean TODAY, February 14, 2025 - I recorded the deTERMINATOR version of this.

    @ponyplayer had no idea I was recording such a video.
  • Having great difficulty and changing your mind?
    ↪Mark

    Very astute
  • Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?
    DET removes the issue of segmentation of races.

    Essentially, after DET has done its work, the races have been normalized to reflect that.

    This is a very difficult thing for players to adjust to because they think there is more to do.

    The role of the player is different.
  • Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?
    Does this make sense? — Chuck

    You have described many potential subsets, leading to many permutations of data.

    1. Regression or progression in speed ratings - i.e. form cycle
    2. Considering...
    age
    number of starts
    class changes
    trainers class management

    This is a very complex study.

    Respectfully, because speed ratings are so far down on the MAKE-A-DIFFERENCE-IN-PROFITABILITY LIST, I doubt that anything of value would be found.

    Today's racing environment is just far different and BEING COMPETITIVE TODAY demands a far different way of looking at things.
  • How Favorites Performed In 2024
    I don't see KD in the track list - is that intentional? — Tom Atwater

    KD is a "circuit 0" track. That is, it is a very small or non-standard track.

    Most people would not want to include circ0 because it would skew the data.
  • How Favorites Performed In 2024
    @PickMaster
    I'm confused.

    Ah... Favorites.


    Also, look at your posts. (Edit one)
    I wrapped them in "code" tags.
  • Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?
    @Jim Pommier & @PickMaster

    You have both been added to the research group.
  • 4 Types of Races
    I don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions. — Jim Pommier

    And I agree with your position as well.
  • No wonder I can't win at Sunland
    I used to do well at that track but in the recent few years it fell off my list.

    Besides, there are just so many races to choose from in my 3 hours + one race.
  • Gulfstream closing??
    To be clear... if the state allows them to have a casino without a race track, then the race track is history.

    Very ugly.
  • what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?
    Ryan Pip has a newsletter about handicapping. https://substack.com/@ryanpip — Mark

    Thanks, Mark.
  • what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?
    Who is Ryan Pip?
  • what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?
    @Jim Pommier,
    100%.
    In addition, when one keeps a track profile, they must be aware that the mix of running styles in a given race is a huge factor.

    For example, a Quirin ES Points race that had 8877 is far different than a race with 5433.

    This forces one to keep multiple models.

    Would your experience support that?
  • what is the best way to use the deT when there is an extreme track bias?
    How would you know there is a PACE bias?

    Are you keeping a model?
  • January is Difficult - in case you haven't noticed...
    Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures? — Jeff Capper

    Of course!

    But you had me at:
    I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. — Jeff Capper
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