Good to see you back, old friend.

I think the issue becomes how many other races point to CHAOS and what percentage of them actually produced a chaotic winner?

Also, have you seen this blog post?
How to Score the Big Dollar Horse in a Chaos Race

Most people look at 20/1 winners and say that they only happen very rarely, so why bother? I look at those races as untapped potential. — RanchWest

I completely agree.
I know you know this but...
It is imperative that we identify when such a race is LIKELY to happen because to swing for the fences in every race is to subject ourselves to a gigantic number of losers.

In P&P 2022, I showed a stat that said (if memory serves) for every winner above 8/1 there are TWENTY FIVE starters at 8/1 and above. Picking the right one out of 25 is not something one does easily.

My state does not allow ADW's anymore. Are conditional wagers still available? Odds of 11/1 or more are probably not going to drop significantly in the last seconds, are they? — RanchWest

Up or down.
So, 8/1 is a pass and pays $28 but was missed, while the 12/1 that went off at 7/1 was a loser.

It's like they have a mind of your own: "Dave is playing this system. Let's mess with his head."

May I suggest that this topic is TOO GOOD to languish as a response in a thread?

Perhaps copy/paste it into its own topic?

So, how do we become profitable then — Bill Madsen

An easy answer does not exist.

And if it did, I think most players would resist because it will necessitate a change in what they're doing.

If there's anything I know about horse players it is that they like what they're doing - even if it isn't serving them well.

That's not so terrible if they're really profitable. — Bill Madsen

Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger.

But certainly some go off at higher prices. — Bill Madsen

Yes.
And they become profitable at around 11/1 (as I recall).
Across all races, at all tracks, you'd find about 3-4 bets per day.

Surely that can be turned into profit somehow? — Bill Madsen

All such factors - and others that are high level - correlate so closely with the tote board that it makes it almost impossible to profit from them directly.

In fact, one would do better tossing such horses.
Except that they will will win crushing percentage of races.

In Percentages & Probabilities 2022 I showed how those factors could be used for profit but not in the conventional way.

Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort? — RanchWest

PSR is a proprietary rating from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW). It closely resembles BRIS' Prime Power rating.

We have 3 such ratings, all similar, yet different.
All 3 get 30-32% winners on the top-ranked horse in each race.
(Which really is similar to BRIS' number.)

Lack of interest.

There were 2 men involved. Each spent less than two years in prison. They were ruled off as undesirable so they never returned to the track. — Tony Kofalt

That is as it should have been.

Good real life post.

2 Questions
1. How much time did your friends serve?

2. Did they go back to racing?

You think that's funny... when he finally told the truth, that meant he had committed perjury, which is a felony. — RanchWest

Even funnier.

The fog incident was in a race with such a low purse that the jockey could not be charged with a felony. — RanchWest

LOL
That's funny.

The most infamous incident at Delta was the "fog jockey" incident. — RanchWest

I remember that!

Another set of stats that might be ripe is workouts. Is there a difference between when the horses win and lose? Does the trainer work the horses long or short? Any difference for distances or surfaces? Fast or slow? Frequency? Does the typical layoff after a race disclose anything? Does the trainer have access to a private training facility? — RanchWest

I love stats that nobody else has.

Personally, I like to concentrate of performance stats.
That is, things like: "How does this trainer perform with horses who..."
Rank 1st for speed rating in their last race?
(or 2nd,3rd,FrontHalf,RearHalf)

• Best of Last 2 Races?
• Best of Last 3 Races?
• Best 2 of Last 3 Races?

That worked.

You did not share what you think you shared.
Download it yourself and see.

Theoretically, yes.
The standard approach for a whale group is to lose 3.5% and make it up on rebates.
I'm not suggesting that his approach provides enough handle for whaledom, but it should work providing it is profitable and remains such.

Because his selections (logically) are low-odds...

• He can bet a lot of money if he chooses to ramp up.
• It will take only 1,000 bets or so to verify that the system is valid.
• The next statistical challenge would be some sort of seasonality.
  (i.e. the sample is from RECENT history. Will it work in August?)

If I had such a system in my arsenal, I would use a mild chase-the-money strategy to level out the fluctuations and simply grind out a profit.
This assumes I actually desired to be a 4-day-a-week player - i.e. have a job.