Guys, I am so under the weather that I seriously doubt I will have the forum's Grand Opening before Christmas.

This virus-thing is really debilitating.
(Not Covid - in week 3 now.)

Amazingly, I've done several hundred slides for the upcoming Percentages & Probabilities 2022 book and webinar. Not sure when I will be able to actually start recording them.

As for the forum, I've literally made zero progress on what needs to be done. Sure hope I can put this behind me by next week.

I like that!

Not easily available.

What are NEXT OUT WINNERS?

Dave do I become one of those Founding Members yet? Or what do I have to do to be on the list? — Conley

Of course.

When I started betting to make a living I became wary of making changes as there is a fine line between winning and losing. — Tony Kofalt

:up: :up: :up:


OH, SING IT BROTHER K!!!

Winning can be so very fragile.

I like longshot closers in a chaos race for my contrarian urges. — RanchWest

How do you determine that a race is chaotic?

[Moved this thread to Handicapping.]

:grin:

Love it.

Or are you like one guy I knew... a Big Chief Tablet handicapper? Do you have confidence in what you are doing? — RanchWest

What the heck is Big Chief Tablet?

Is it this?
https://www.amazon.com/Original-Big-Chief-Writing-Primary/dp/B0094ILCJC

I've decided to change the FOUNDING MEMBERS to be only 10!

Keep your ideas coming.

This may require some thought but at first pass I don't like the idea. I also see some issues with jockey safety as well. I should study up on this as some folks believe it is a good idea. lol — Tony Kofalt

I really look forward to your POV.
I thought it would IMPROVE safety for the riders because you wouldn't have the guys coming through on the rail.

I actually hope you're right because CHANGE is the ENEMY of UNDERSTANDING.

You're very coachable.
Glad this is working out well for you.

Hope you guys don't mind but I'm going to move this to the handicapping forum.

Welcome, and Thank you.

Quick question about your Par Times:
Did you say that when I purchase the 2021 Electronic/Hard Copy Par Times this year I will get the 2022 Pars for free? And did you say on or before December 15th? — Conley

Yes. We do that every year.
In YOUR case, you can order now and we'll give you the 2022's when they're available.

Dave, I would take advantage of this but I believe that I literally own everything that’s not HSH specific. — Steven

Well, I'm going to build the new P&P just for you. :cool:

I believe I need to focus more on including the best speed horses. Here is my plan of attack.
!) it is acceptable for all of your contenders to show early speed of lay close to the pace.
2) it is acceptable to include a mix of speed type (early and late) on your tickets
3) it is NOT acceptable to build contenders when none of them figure to press or be involved early.
The exception would be an off the pace 'single'.
I don't know how I let this happen but the post race autopsy gave me the insight to implement a solution.
Any thoughts? — Tony Kofalt

My research on this - and where I began with the Early Speed Series - is to do something I call SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

You saw a hint of it in the 8-Point Horse post.

That is, asking the question, "What happens if the 8-point horse doesn't win?"

Assuming the Percentages & Probabilities 2022 product does well, I will continue to do more products. My prime focus will definitely be on SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

Teaser:
My belief is that late horses are not typically predictable.
It's more like saying "Late horses win when early horses lose."

Trust me when I say that the impact of that is almost as startling as the 8-point losers.

Great idea!

And, boy, do I agree.
At the very least it should be part of the equation.

Unfortunately, we don't have a system that allows "Likes."
It only supports "Loves," and no other choices.
Worse, the mechanism is not programmable.

But there are also other issues with that approach:
1. Many board members do not use that system.
2. It causes the reward system to be dependent upon the actions of others instead of the posters.

I have some other ideas for gamification, but it is not for the start up phase.

Of course. And he deserves credit for being profitable.

That’s interesting. I’ve heard lots of people (non pros) say they would be making more money working at McDonald’s than playing the horses. — Steven

Such is the difference between the true professionals and everyone else. One fellow on PaceAdvantage - in the discussion about our post about Whales talked about having a friend he called "whale" who was making about $80,000 per year.

While $80k would qualify him as a low-end professional in my mind, I'd never equate that with a WHALE betting $100m per year or more. In fact, the comparison is laughable.

That PA discussion can be found here.
WHALES: A little back story Part 1

I'd like to see some contests for typical racing. I remember the old Aqueduct Inner Dirt P4 contests. That was a lot of fun, though a bit long, the entire season. Maybe a one-day contest followed by discussion. — RanchWest

This would be for everyone, right?
i.e. not just as a Founding Members perk, right?

I know it seems like "What's the big deal?" BUT...
...the problem with contests is that someone has to devote an entire day to that endeavor just to keep score, moderate closing races, etc. Thus, the cost is measured in thousands of dollars for a weekend contest.