The one positive aspect to 'big race days' at the track is large betting pools. With a little creativity and a lot of luck sizeable P5's loom. The all stakes P5 at CD this year includes race 8 thru 12. I'm looking at 2 potential singles (Race 8 and 10) and then spread in the remaining races hoping for some value.
In race 8 I will try to beat Just One Time who is bred and still partially owned by some friends of mine. I've watched her train many times and she is the real deal. But she is a bit fractious near the gate and that may bite her one of these races. She will probably start with a blanket in the gate.
I'm getting good vibes from Bell's The One who figures to go post at odds of 4-1, making her a good single.
In race 10- Jackie's Warrior will prove difficult to catch. His main rivals will need help from someone to soften him up and that scenario does not look likely. Jackie is the probable favorite but we only need one decent winner to sweeten the ticket

BTW, HSH does have built in Rag-style numbers.
Do you like those? — Dave Schwartz

I've always felt that the precision in the Thorograph numbers was amazing. I'm comfortable that the adjustments made to the numbers (wide trips, weight on/off, wind) were appropriate and added value. With a little practice, the presentation of the figs in graphs was good for my eye. I felt I could see both obvious and subtle improvements and regressions in a horses form. Key distinction is that I compared a horses recent form with his past form to determine where they may be in their form cycle.
I don't recall reviewing SLT in HSH so a comparison is difficult. I'm not sure what 'number' is used to build the HSH sheets. Could you please add a little detail for me?
I'll address the paceline process soon but right now I'm preparing for Belmont

Experience does help. But I'd have to say that my experience with Thorograph played a big part. Especially the concepts around form cycles

Ranch- thank you for sharing your experience. I have had a similar relationship with Dave for 30 years. He's sharp and always willing to help and share. I have a feeling that 30 years from now I'll be saying the same things about you!!

It can be done through HSH. I did it using ThoroBrain in the past. It's a pretty subjective process for me right now.

Dave, in my experience most trainers provide riding instructions to jocks. Sometimes owners even enter the conversation. For the most part jocks do what they can to follow the instructions but when gate opens the best laid plans often get derailed.
In the mid 1980's I was part of a paddock conversation between jockey Rudy Aviles (high percentage jock) and a 25% plus trainer whom I'll leave unnamed. The trainer got a little carried away and gave what felt like was 5 minutes of instructions. After listening to the instructions Rudy looked at the trainer and said, Steve you train 'em and I'll ride them. The trainer was speechless. Needlesstosay Rudy steered his mount home 5 in front. I don't believe I ever heard this trainer provide instructions again.

I do not represent any jockeys today. I would definitely consider it if I spotted the right rider. It actually is a nice compliment to wagering. In fact I have been pursuing a young apprentice rider currently taking calls at Indiana Grand. I watched her work horses at GP when she was just starting to ride. This young lady has the tools to enjoy a prosperous apprentice year. Her name is Gage Holmes, keep an eye on her. She's currently won 3 out of 45 races but she's been riding longshots for the most part. I expect her to have a big year.

I find that usually use 3 pacelines each weighed a little differently based on the way I feel the form cycle is moving. This is a great thread

Thanks Conley- I often find myself watching YT videos about horse racing at night. This is the first video I've seen moderated by Kali. She was organized and led the flow well. The little guy is just amazing. Love listening to his analysis on most race days as well. He's an out of the box thinker. Really enjoyed this video

Ranch- seriously well thought out group of questions. Thank you!! Here are a few thoughts from my perspective.

But in studies of topics other than bias, we usually talk in terms of a very minimum of 30 wins before we consider there to be any trend. So, why do we look at such a small sample of bias when that is contrary to our normal habits?
By definition, bias is a disproportionate weight in favor of or against something. I suppose that if a bias held up over a larger sample size it would become the norm and lose much of the value it may offer. That being said, I view horse racing as a cyclical game and I'm always looking for 'short term' trends that may offer value. For me a handful of races may be more than enough.
I utilize a similar mindset when betting 'hot' trainers. I'm looking for trainers that win 2 or 3 of their last 4 or 5 races, not 12 of their last 30. My belief is that value is more prevalent in short term trends

Tom, thank you for that explanation

Lol- Conley you are the best!! I love those types of stats although IMO they are not reliable. I remember being touted on a college hoops game once where team A had not lost a road game in an arena whose capacity was less than 15,000 in several years. Well the stat held up as team A won once again.
I prefer angles that match up todays entrants. Such as the last 4 derby winners ranked 1-4 on LP.
Nevertheless I love reading these types of lists. I've had a very bad last 2 days being sick and this list certainly brought back some memories and made me smile

Tom, this is one of my favorite paceline selection scenarios. The return race was good but not his top. Then the 2nd off layup earns a lower fig. I almost always project the third race fig to return to the level of his return. One additional point, if there was additional regression in his 3rd race I am not afraid to project the 4th start equal to the return race. I see this scenario as form cycle at its purest. I realize this is a very simplistic explanation and other factors need to be considered

When calculating factors for each paceline(s) such as E1, E2 etc has anyone ever experimented with a metho Dave calls synthetic pacelines? Dave maybe you could add a brief explanation of the synthetic paceline calculations? That way I won't lead anyone astray. I have to say that synthetic calculations have led me to many lone speed opportunities especially in maiden race.

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour?

Ranch, I'm gonna call it more artful than mechanical. While a similar group of factors are considered there are no 'rules'. For example, if a horse was recently competitive at a level higher than today is that a positive or a negative when handicapping this race? The answer may differ if we are evaluating a young 3yo versus a battle scarred 9yo. I've tried hard not to box myself into a set of rules.

I suspect that like most of us I went through a process to find the ultimate spot play. This occurred very early in my handicapping venture. I was never able to successfully identify a spot play.

This is a very interesting topic to me. I attempt to identify this type of horse (fit and ready) by assigning a projected fig to each horse during my handicapping process. I can then compare this projected fig to each horse's prior races to determine if they are improving or declining. One of my house rules in projecting figs is to assume that all horses will either improve or decline from their last effort. This process is a bit 'artsy' but makes fit and ready horses easier to identify.
Factors taken into consideration in the projection process are

• Prior speed figures
• Projected and past pace setup
• From cycle
• Trainer, jockey, medication and equipment changes
• Competitive class levels

Excellent job Ranch!!!

Dave and Ranch- I can always count on you guys for such insightful and well thought out comments!! I found it interesting that NYRA Bets and The Stronach Group are part owners in this particular ADW. Here are my thoughts regarding the article:

• last minute odds swings do create a negative impression of the game to most players
• the CAW teams are working withing the framework of current wagering laws
• any of us, or groups of us, could build a CAW team and enjoy the same benefits
• the fundamental problem in horse racing today results from the business model between tracks, horsemen and the ADW's

I'd like to focus for a minute on my last comment regarding the article. Existing contracts between tracks, horsemen and ADW's are bad for the business. Let's take a high level view of how tracks and purses are funded. When a wager is made, a blended 'takeout' is drawn from the paramutuel pools and the balance of the pool is split between winning tickets. Part of this 'takeout' is split between racetracks and horsemen to fund track expenses and purses. Prior to the computer era, a typical split of takeout would by 7% to each the track and horseman. The balance would go to taxes. Remember the betting pools then all came from on track wagers.
Upon the inception of OTB's and eventually ADW's different types of contracts were created that greatly affected the split of the takeout. Short-sighted track management and horsemen groups looked at revenue form OTB's and ADW's as extra revenue never taking into account the long term impact on 'on-track wagering. Most of the current ADW contract provide tracks and horsemen with a 1.5 to 4% of each dollar wagered. The remaining takeout belongs to the ADW's which is used to pay their bills and fund rebate programs.
If the wagering dollar was split in a more equitable fashion less money would be available through rebates resulting in fewer CAW's and the industry would be better positioned to sustain itself..

Dave, you know that I am always searching for a way to include price horses on my tickets. But you are correct as most of the races I handicap correlate to the tote board. The favorite in most races is my first or second selection. Seldom is a 20-1 shot one of my two top choices.
I project a fig for each horse in every race. Intentionally, I attempt to project it higher or lower than the horses last race. That is why the PSR number caught my eye when I was reviewing ThoroManager. By projecting a number unlike a last race I think I distance myself from mimmicking the public to a small degree.