Great responses!! Ranch you always provide a lot of food for thought. Jim and Conley, thank you for the feedback as well. Some good ideas out there!!
One thing I didn't mention in my prior text is that I give more value to 'short term' trends. I can do this more effectively by limiting my play to 1 circuit. I love situations where a trainer starts to heat up or go cold. Sometimes making betting decisions based on very short term trends falls flat on its face but that's one of the risks associated with what we do.

I agree Dave, totally different concepts. But I think that whatever concept you choose it has to fit your personality. From reading Formula's posts it's obvious he has a scientific approach to horse racing, and I would speculate life in general. That's his comfort zone. I'd assume that if Formula had an adequate sample size and showed profitability he would continue to research ways to improve on his results.
I don't have a good 'feel' for Bustin Stones. But he seemed to believe that Formulas approach was wasting time for little benefit. He would be more comfortable swinging for the fences on any given day. Its been quite some time since I thought about the velocity of money.
My two cents- I like a mixture of the two approaches. Formula is attempting to validate his research. It's a bit slow moving but a legit approach. I have confidence in my approach over the long run, but believe I have to take some chances as well.
I loved the discussion about favorites though as I see vulnerable favs as a way to help overcome the take.

Lol- was the P4 contest on Paceadvantage? If so I played one year. It was a blast. I managed to finish 3rd but there were some good players in it

Ranch- I do maintain a rolling track profile. Nothing fancy just hand written notes. I also input any biases into notes that carry forward with a horses PP's. Aqu has had many days this winter where speed and the inside part of the track have been golden. I probably missed some winners here as I try not to jump to bias conclusions quickly. Then there have been a number of days where speed carried for 5 races or so followed by an outside closers track for the last few races. Very inconsistent.
Thanks for the ideas Ranch

Thanks for the reply Tom! I may simply be struggling with the same issues. I hope track maintenance gets their arm around this soon.

Thank you Tom!! I love the way you attack the races. I enjoy reading your posts paceadvantage as well

I've had a difficult time at Aqu this winter. My win percentage is down sharply and I'm struggling to understand why some of my selections have run so poorly. The easy way out is blame the track, which has been hard as hell to read. There have been many biased tracks but I'm not convinced that is the answer. If it wasn't for a few P5's I'd be down 5 figures several times over.
Has anyone else been struggling at Aqu this winter? I'd appreciate hearing about any insight you may have.
Thanks

Thanks Tom! Appreciate that. I can see that being very helpful especially on turf races.

And, if you work with a tool that permits 'notes' you can add these track trends so they become a permanent part of a horses PP's

Ramon- Thank you for your work!! Much appreciated

Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job

Good explanation Conley!!

Ranch- regarding my post about leveraging the vulnerable favs here is why I decided to include Ocean Deep on my P5 tickets.
1) I felt I had 2 races (5&6) with pretty vulnerable favs.
2) I felt I had 2 races (7&8) which I had narrowed down to 2 horses.

Ocean Deep did not offer very attractive form. I was leaving both top choices off my ticket in this race so I decided to spread using 4 horses. Ocean Deep and Top Effort both exited the same last race with Top Effort beating Ocean Deep by 2 1/4 lengths. I had noted the track on Dec 30 as one that heavily favored horses on or near the early lead. I felt that Ocean Deep may have been compromised by the track on Dec 30 and may have been good enough to finish with a length or so of Top Effort that day. I was also intrigued by the sudden improvement for a lifetime best sprint on 12-11 with todays rider in the saddle.
Ocean Deep had plenty of negatives but I felt he had a right to improve at big odds.
There was nothing scientific about using him. Just a race that I felt lent itself to a pricy winner. I've lost plenty of races and I'm not afraid to lose a bet. I just hope that in the long run I win enough of them.

Ranch, a real life example of how beating a vulnerable fav can stack the odds in your favor. Today I post 2 vulnerable favs at Aqu. Both favs lost and the winners of those races paid $10.60 and $60.50. Neither winner looked great on form but were reachable if you looked deep into their form. If you delved 3-5 horses deep in horizontals on the races some nifty gimmicks were available

I believe it's important to recognize that most longshots have plenty of negative factors in their form (or they wouldn't be longshots). We have to look past those negatives and search for the positive factors. Look for a reason(s) that the horse 'could' win. This type of horse should offer some value so I would make sure the odds justify investing.

Ranch-
Interesting thought. For myself I look for opportunities when a favorite looks vulnerable. For example, I typically post a vulnerable fav at Aqu or Bel every day. The vulnerable favs are winning at about 24.5%. But when they lose the average win price on the winner of the race exceeds10-1. I see these races as a good place to look for price horses. But I do use standard handicapping in this process.

I also remember reading an article regarding longshot horses. I always meant to followup with some research but never did. The premise was to build a list of positive handicapping factors. The factors could span any part of handicapping, trainer, pace, speed figures etc. The idea was to count the number of 'positive' factors each horse accumulated and bet well priced horses that earned a certain number of them. I will go back and do some research to find that article.

Thanks Conley

Latest version up and running on my PC. Thanks again Steven. It will be interesting to monitor this puppy in January

Wow- at first glance very thorough trip notes. I will spend some time evaluating them. I don't play Cal tracks normally but I am giving the early P5 at SA a shot on Sunday with NY closed and a likely over bet firster in race 4. I have to believe Q B One will be over bet as the first foal of Beholder to make the races.

IMO, the current scratch list is an example of incomplete information that can be misleading. For example a vet scratch. What was the reason for the vet scratch? Was the horse lame/sore during a pre race exam? This could be significant. Or did the trainer not like the race and tell the vet the horse didn't eat up and shouldn't run. Or does the horse have a fever of sorts?
While it may not be possible to categorize all the different scenarios an explanation such as sick or lame would help us evaluate the next entry. Sometimes incomplete info can be misleading.