• Congrats to Conley
    Congrats! Nice achievement.Tom

    Thank you Tom!
  • Congrats to Conley
    Thank you Tony for the kind words!

    Yes you are correct on that I have accepted a track handicapping position and this is at my local harness racetrack Grand River Raceway so I am super pumped to be on and also to display my selections to the betting public!
  • Researching negatives

    I am doing it the old fashioned way in a notebook ;)
  • Researching negatives
    Ranch right now I am keeping track of track biases and specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can see

    I am doing almost 99% of the tracks on North America right now and have data starting from the start of this month if anyone wanted a quick sneak peek of what I do (which is probably nobody)
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I worked all day yesterday and did not post for the "jinx" when I post early so I had 8-1-5-4 in case anyone wanted to know
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    My next line is I was the jockey. So don't say "bad ride", it was just nerves.Biniak
    must have got bit by the bug (bug boy) lol
  • Old Racing System
    How bad would it be if I posted some systems that are NOT copyrighted? Dave thoughts? or is that a bad idea

    Just thought if I would post others around here can play around with the systems and test to see how "good" or "bad" they really are plus it is a good learning experience to see what works in a system and what doesn't so that person can create there own set a rule that works for them!

    BTW: Ron Stabiles Figs Winning System doesn't have a copyright on it's cover
  • Old Racing System


    You are correct did find the title later on.

    I have tons of systems just like this which I also found yesterday
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Wow!
    If you have a systematic way of producing numbers that results in a flat bet profit, that makes you the only one that I am aware of.
    Dave Schwartz

    Can you please be a reference when Woodbine calls for the analyst position in the next few weeks?
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    How good are those figs of yours?
    Any stats?
    Dave Schwartz

    I did test them at Keeneland Fall 2021 I also did do Breeders Cup last year
    Final Stats for the 2021 Keeneland Fall Season
    Winners on Top: 27/78 (34.6%) Bet: $156.00 Returned: $217.20 Profit/Loss: +61.20
    Winners Top 2: 35/78 (44.8%)
    Winners Top 3: 48/78 (61.5%)
    Winners Top 4: 58/78 (74.3%)

    Breeders Cup 2021
    Friday
    R6: no hits
    R7: #6 $3.60 + Exa Tri Sup
    R8: #1 $21.80 + Exa
    R9: #12 $4.80
    R10: no hits

    Saturday
    R4: 3rd pick won + Exa Tri Sup
    R5: no hits
    R6: #5 $3.80 + Exa
    R7: #8 $10.60
    R8: #5 $24.60 (2nd choice but I count still as winner T2) + Exa
    R9: #3 $6.20
    R10: no hits
    R11: no hits
    R12: #5 $8.40

    8 winners Top 2/14 races
    5 exactas 2 trifectas 2 supers
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Has anyone ever tried Thorograph? Can you offer any comments on the layout and the data presented? How do you deal with pace in the product? Just curiousTony Kofalt

    I have and did for a short period of time due to the information being very expensive but then I created my own ThoroGraph "figure" and now I don't buy them since I do the figures myself

    It took a while to get a formula going for it but now I use it for my every day handicapping which I call the "CFigs" which I thought was pretty inventive lol

    I also do my own harness ratings which combine Form Class Speed Driver and Overall rating of the horse to create 1 full rating for each horse

    Sorry for getting off track but I think if everyone works hard to make themselves better in the game you can go very far in life!
  • Just watched a great video on YouTube
    Thanks Conley- I often find myself watching YT videos about horse racing at night. This is the first video I've seen moderated by Kali. She was organized and led the flow well. The little guy is just amazing. Love listening to his analysis on most race days as well. He's an out of the box thinker. Really enjoyed this videoTony Kofalt

    No problem Tony glad you enjoyed the video! Hope to see Byk and CJ(TimefomUS) do the same great videos like Andy
  • Just watched a great video on YouTube
    look forward to watching this.

    Thank you.
    Dave Schwartz

    Conley,

    Thanks for sharing your research!
    Biniak

    No problem Dave and Biniak glad I can help! :)
  • What's Winning
    Can you explain what these factors are?Mark

    Column headers are ranks of:
    ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
    PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
    PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
    QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
    PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
    EP_25 EARLY PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    LP_26 LRS_27 LATE PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
    B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
    HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
    LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
    FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
    Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
    SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
    TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
    JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
    WO_39 HIDDEN WEOPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
    TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
    CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
    PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
    COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
    DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
    TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
    DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
    TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
    ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
    GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE
  • Is bias real?
    I am a firm believer in track bias and so much so that I have been keeping a notebook full of notes for keeping up with track bias at (almost) every track in North America for TBs

    What I do is look at the charts (preferably Equibase) and dissect them so that I get the full understanding of how the track was playing out and also what disadvantages I need to jot down so next time I see a shipper shipping into a track I am playing with a troubled line I can look back to see if I have that tracks notes and date to see if the horse was disadvantaged that specific day which does help so you don't throw away that horse just because he/she had a poor start without a lot of knowledge of how that horse REALLY ran

    Right now a big bias I am noticing in the following tracks is:
    Keeneland for Dirt Sprints favouring Front Runners with Stalkers at a disadvantage
    Tampa Bay favouring heavy Front Runners on Dirt Sprints with Stalkers/Trailers/Outside disadvantage
    Parx favouring Front on DS/DR with posts 4-6 13 wins last 3 race days and also Stalkers/Outside bad
    Turf Paradise DS/DR favouring Front Runners with Stalkers and Outside disadvantage


    Hope this helps in some sort of way but I am always willing to add something to this project if someone would like me to Thanks
  • Has the Kentucky Derby winner already run his last prep?
    Here is the "Winning" Profile for the last 4 Derby winners
    1) No layoff line since the last race
    2) Posts 7-7-18-20 were the last 4 winning posts
    3) Beyers were 82 101 91 107 Average Beyer exiting last race was 95 so 90+ Beyers LR best
    4) Either show no regression in L3 (Beyer either stays the same) or drops a few and picks back up in L3
    5) 22% Average Jockey win %tage and 26% for Trainer
    6) Last race prep track horse has already had 1 start on that track prior to LR
    7) Shows outside post in LR prep (6/8 8/11 and 6/7 were shown from L4 winners)
    8) Shows being the favorite in at least 1 of the L3 races
    9) Born in the month of either march or may
    10) Shows at least 1 start in the "Wet"
    11) Shows 1 part of the race not moving positions (Ex 33 44 55 etc)
    12) Either is Bay or Chestnut color
    13) Sire Stud Fee Over $20k
    14) Has at least 1 horse in today's field that has raced with him/her prior to today
    15) Average TF Early 100 Late 91
    16) Average Odds on morning-line 14-1 (County House was 30-1 so it skews the data)
    17) Trainer has at least 1 stat over 20% (does not matter for stat but GrdStk was 24% Avg)
    18) Shows at least 1 workout after LR with a workout over or at 5 Furlongs
    19) Trainer/Jockey combo is over 25%Year not track (26% was the Average)
    20) Shows going wide in at least 1 of the L3 races
    21) Winner was bred in Kentucky
    22) Shows a Career BB of at least over 90 (Average was 99)
    23) Shows Career earnings of over $300k (Average was $575k)
    24)Shows at least 1 weight change in L3 races
    25) Shows at least 1 Itm finish L3 races

    There is probably more that I missed but there are at least 25 different angles for the Last 4 winners and yes I did count Mandaloun as being the 2021 Derby winner for stats purposes :)
  • WHALES: A little back story Part 1
    I know that this posting I am about to put up is off the topic of the op but I would like to throw a few ideas around and see if anyone would like to start them

    1) A Panel on Stakes Races and other important racing days with posting an analysis with selections or having a "LIVE" session via Zoom or some online video (even Facebook messager does a great job)
    I think if there were a few of us here who wanted to do this I would be willing to be a helping hand here and this would be mostly for big prep races for the KY Derby/Breeders Cup but also other stakes around the county and here in Canada :)

    2) Writers for Blog Posts for Horse Racing Sports Stocks etc
    Again I would be willing to help in this situation but in this case, this is not about me but others who are way more advanced than me on certain topics! The writers can write whatever they want (well I didn't mean you know xxx stuff or political stuff lol) and this will create an "audience" and the writer can also take suggestions along the way to write about topics; The point is that the more than a writer can teach on here and gain a public showing the more they can feel confident in writing and in life! The majority of the topics will mostly be on Horse Racing (ex Why Favourites are Good Bets or Creating a Value Line For Longshots) and also on Sports/Sports Betting (ex Finding Value in College Sports or Gaining An Competitive Edge on Football)

    That is all I have right now I don't mean to be all "me me me" or trying to take over this forum I just wanted to have a helping hand in improving and expanding the forum to new heights plus having fun along the way! Let me know folks how these ideas sound and we can go from there

    Thank you
  • Trainer stats
    Simple rule for me

    I like to see the stat being 20% winners in over 10 starts with an ROI of anything positive is good

    A super stat would be 40% winners and over $2 ROI which I have seen a good chunk of winners winning just using that trainer stat alone while handicapping the race

    It is a great way to start handicapping trainers if you are just starting or if you are wanting to switch up your methods IMO

    I can provide examples if anyone is wanting to
  • For NY Players
    Great tool Tony!

    The cool thing is that they also archive these Track Trends so you can look back at them
    Aqueduct now-2016
    Belmont Park now-2017
    Saratoga now-2016
  • BRIS E1/E2/LP
    WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BRIS PACE RATINGS AND THE BRIS SPEED RATINGS ?
    Unlike the BRIS Speed Ratings which employ a differing points-per-length scale depending on the race distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings use a fixed scale of 2-points-per-length for all pace calls (2f,4f, etc.) - regardless of the race distance. The fixed 2-points-per-length scale is based on the fact that, regardless of the entire race's distance, the ground covered for any given pace call (2f,4f,etc.) is the same - that is, a 1/4 mile call is equal to two furlongs regardless of whether the entire race is six furlongs or ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles). Since the pace calls being measured are equivalent across differing distances ( a 1/2 mile call in a sprint is the same distance as a 1/2 mile call in a route), the BRIS Pace Ratings use the same 2-points-per-length scaling for all pace calls across all distances.

    HOW CAN I CALCULATE "TURN TIME" USING THE BRIS PACE RATINGS ?
    It's easy! Simply subtract the 1st call Pace Rating (2f Pace Rating for sprints, 4f Pace Rating for most routes) from the 2nd call Pace Rating (4f Pace Rating for sprints, 6f for most routes):

    BRIS Turn Time = E2 Pace Rating - E1 Pace Rating
    or
    BRIS Turn Time (sprint) = 4f Pace Rating - 2f Pace Rating
    or
    BRIS Turn Time (route) = 6f Pace Rating - 4f Pace Rating


    For example:
    BRIS PACE TURN
    E1 E2 ( E2 - E1 ) TIME
    HORSE "A" 90 96 ( 96 - 90) = +6
    HORSE "B" 92 96 ( 96 - 92) = +4
    HORSE "C" 96 96 ( 96 - 96) = +0
    HORSE "D" 100 100 (100 - 100) = +0
    Horse "A" has the fastest turn time (+6) which is one length (2 points) faster than Horse "B" (+4).
    Also, note that HORSE "C" & "D" have the same turn time (+0). Horse "D" (E1=100) ran 2 lengths (4 points) faster up to the 1st call than Horse "C" (E1= 96) but Horse "D" (E2=100) was still 2 lengths faster up to the 2nd call than than Horse "C" (E2= 96). Therefore, Horse "C" and Horse "D" ran the same speed between the first two calls.