Congrats! Nice achievement. — Tom

Thank you Tom!

Thank you Tony for the kind words!

Yes you are correct on that I have accepted a track handicapping position and this is at my local harness racetrack Grand River Raceway so I am super pumped to be on and also to display my selections to the betting public!

I am doing it the old fashioned way in a notebook ;)

Ranch right now I am keeping track of track biases and specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can see

I am doing almost 99% of the tracks on North America right now and have data starting from the start of this month if anyone wanted a quick sneak peek of what I do (which is probably nobody)

I worked all day yesterday and did not post for the "jinx" when I post early so I had 8-1-5-4 in case anyone wanted to know

My next line is I was the jockey. So don't say "bad ride", it was just nerves. — Biniak

must have got bit by the bug (bug boy) lol

How bad would it be if I posted some systems that are NOT copyrighted? Dave thoughts? or is that a bad idea

Just thought if I would post others around here can play around with the systems and test to see how "good" or "bad" they really are plus it is a good learning experience to see what works in a system and what doesn't so that person can create there own set a rule that works for them!

BTW: Ron Stabiles Figs Winning System doesn't have a copyright on it's cover

You are correct did find the title later on.

I have tons of systems just like this which I also found yesterday

Wow!
If you have a systematic way of producing numbers that results in a flat bet profit, that makes you the only one that I am aware of. — Dave Schwartz

Can you please be a reference when Woodbine calls for the analyst position in the next few weeks?

How good are those figs of yours?
Any stats? — Dave Schwartz

I did test them at Keeneland Fall 2021 I also did do Breeders Cup last year
Final Stats for the 2021 Keeneland Fall Season
Winners on Top: 27/78 (34.6%) Bet: $156.00 Returned: $217.20 Profit/Loss: +61.20
Winners Top 2: 35/78 (44.8%)
Winners Top 3: 48/78 (61.5%)
Winners Top 4: 58/78 (74.3%)

Breeders Cup 2021
Friday
R6: no hits
R7: #6 $3.60 + Exa Tri Sup
R8: #1 $21.80 + Exa
R9: #12 $4.80
R10: no hits

Saturday
R4: 3rd pick won + Exa Tri Sup
R5: no hits
R6: #5 $3.80 + Exa
R7: #8 $10.60
R8: #5 $24.60 (2nd choice but I count still as winner T2) + Exa
R9: #3 $6.20
R10: no hits
R11: no hits
R12: #5 $8.40

8 winners Top 2/14 races
5 exactas 2 trifectas 2 supers

Has anyone ever tried Thorograph? Can you offer any comments on the layout and the data presented? How do you deal with pace in the product? Just curious — Tony Kofalt

I have and did for a short period of time due to the information being very expensive but then I created my own ThoroGraph "figure" and now I don't buy them since I do the figures myself

It took a while to get a formula going for it but now I use it for my every day handicapping which I call the "CFigs" which I thought was pretty inventive lol

I also do my own harness ratings which combine Form Class Speed Driver and Overall rating of the horse to create 1 full rating for each horse

Sorry for getting off track but I think if everyone works hard to make themselves better in the game you can go very far in life!

Thanks Conley- I often find myself watching YT videos about horse racing at night. This is the first video I've seen moderated by Kali. She was organized and led the flow well. The little guy is just amazing. Love listening to his analysis on most race days as well. He's an out of the box thinker. Really enjoyed this video — Tony Kofalt

No problem Tony glad you enjoyed the video! Hope to see Byk and CJ(TimefomUS) do the same great videos like Andy

look forward to watching this.

Thank you. — Dave Schwartz

Conley,

Thanks for sharing your research! — Biniak

No problem Dave and Biniak glad I can help! :)

Can you explain what these factors are? — Mark

Column headers are ranks of:
ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
EP_25 EARLY PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
LP_26 LRS_27 LATE PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
WO_39 HIDDEN WEOPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE

I am a firm believer in track bias and so much so that I have been keeping a notebook full of notes for keeping up with track bias at (almost) every track in North America for TBs

What I do is look at the charts (preferably Equibase) and dissect them so that I get the full understanding of how the track was playing out and also what disadvantages I need to jot down so next time I see a shipper shipping into a track I am playing with a troubled line I can look back to see if I have that tracks notes and date to see if the horse was disadvantaged that specific day which does help so you don't throw away that horse just because he/she had a poor start without a lot of knowledge of how that horse REALLY ran

Right now a big bias I am noticing in the following tracks is:
Keeneland for Dirt Sprints favouring Front Runners with Stalkers at a disadvantage
Tampa Bay favouring heavy Front Runners on Dirt Sprints with Stalkers/Trailers/Outside disadvantage
Parx favouring Front on DS/DR with posts 4-6 13 wins last 3 race days and also Stalkers/Outside bad
Turf Paradise DS/DR favouring Front Runners with Stalkers and Outside disadvantage

Hope this helps in some sort of way but I am always willing to add something to this project if someone would like me to Thanks

Here is the "Winning" Profile for the last 4 Derby winners
1) No layoff line since the last race
2) Posts 7-7-18-20 were the last 4 winning posts
3) Beyers were 82 101 91 107 Average Beyer exiting last race was 95 so 90+ Beyers LR best
4) Either show no regression in L3 (Beyer either stays the same) or drops a few and picks back up in L3
5) 22% Average Jockey win %tage and 26% for Trainer
6) Last race prep track horse has already had 1 start on that track prior to LR
7) Shows outside post in LR prep (6/8 8/11 and 6/7 were shown from L4 winners)
8) Shows being the favorite in at least 1 of the L3 races
9) Born in the month of either march or may
10) Shows at least 1 start in the "Wet"
11) Shows 1 part of the race not moving positions (Ex 33 44 55 etc)
12) Either is Bay or Chestnut color
13) Sire Stud Fee Over $20k
14) Has at least 1 horse in today's field that has raced with him/her prior to today
15) Average TF Early 100 Late 91
16) Average Odds on morning-line 14-1 (County House was 30-1 so it skews the data)
17) Trainer has at least 1 stat over 20% (does not matter for stat but GrdStk was 24% Avg)
18) Shows at least 1 workout after LR with a workout over or at 5 Furlongs
19) Trainer/Jockey combo is over 25%Year not track (26% was the Average)
20) Shows going wide in at least 1 of the L3 races
21) Winner was bred in Kentucky
22) Shows a Career BB of at least over 90 (Average was 99)
23) Shows Career earnings of over $300k (Average was $575k)
24)Shows at least 1 weight change in L3 races
25) Shows at least 1 Itm finish L3 races

There is probably more that I missed but there are at least 25 different angles for the Last 4 winners and yes I did count Mandaloun as being the 2021 Derby winner for stats purposes :)

I know that this posting I am about to put up is off the topic of the op but I would like to throw a few ideas around and see if anyone would like to start them

1) A Panel on Stakes Races and other important racing days with posting an analysis with selections or having a "LIVE" session via Zoom or some online video (even Facebook messager does a great job)
I think if there were a few of us here who wanted to do this I would be willing to be a helping hand here and this would be mostly for big prep races for the KY Derby/Breeders Cup but also other stakes around the county and here in Canada :)

2) Writers for Blog Posts for Horse Racing Sports Stocks etc
Again I would be willing to help in this situation but in this case, this is not about me but others who are way more advanced than me on certain topics! The writers can write whatever they want (well I didn't mean you know xxx stuff or political stuff lol) and this will create an "audience" and the writer can also take suggestions along the way to write about topics; The point is that the more than a writer can teach on here and gain a public showing the more they can feel confident in writing and in life! The majority of the topics will mostly be on Horse Racing (ex Why Favourites are Good Bets or Creating a Value Line For Longshots) and also on Sports/Sports Betting (ex Finding Value in College Sports or Gaining An Competitive Edge on Football)

That is all I have right now I don't mean to be all "me me me" or trying to take over this forum I just wanted to have a helping hand in improving and expanding the forum to new heights plus having fun along the way! Let me know folks how these ideas sound and we can go from there

Thank you

Simple rule for me

I like to see the stat being 20% winners in over 10 starts with an ROI of anything positive is good

A super stat would be 40% winners and over $2 ROI which I have seen a good chunk of winners winning just using that trainer stat alone while handicapping the race

It is a great way to start handicapping trainers if you are just starting or if you are wanting to switch up your methods IMO

I can provide examples if anyone is wanting to

Great tool Tony!

The cool thing is that they also archive these Track Trends so you can look back at them
Aqueduct now-2016
Belmont Park now-2017
Saratoga now-2016

WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BRIS PACE RATINGS AND THE BRIS SPEED RATINGS ?
Unlike the BRIS Speed Ratings which employ a differing points-per-length scale depending on the race distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings use a fixed scale of 2-points-per-length for all pace calls (2f,4f, etc.) - regardless of the race distance. The fixed 2-points-per-length scale is based on the fact that, regardless of the entire race's distance, the ground covered for any given pace call (2f,4f,etc.) is the same - that is, a 1/4 mile call is equal to two furlongs regardless of whether the entire race is six furlongs or ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles). Since the pace calls being measured are equivalent across differing distances ( a 1/2 mile call in a sprint is the same distance as a 1/2 mile call in a route), the BRIS Pace Ratings use the same 2-points-per-length scaling for all pace calls across all distances.

HOW CAN I CALCULATE "TURN TIME" USING THE BRIS PACE RATINGS ?
It's easy! Simply subtract the 1st call Pace Rating (2f Pace Rating for sprints, 4f Pace Rating for most routes) from the 2nd call Pace Rating (4f Pace Rating for sprints, 6f for most routes):

BRIS Turn Time = E2 Pace Rating - E1 Pace Rating
or
BRIS Turn Time (sprint) = 4f Pace Rating - 2f Pace Rating
or
BRIS Turn Time (route) = 6f Pace Rating - 4f Pace Rating


For example:
BRIS PACE TURN
E1 E2 ( E2 - E1 ) TIME
HORSE "A" 90 96 ( 96 - 90) = +6
HORSE "B" 92 96 ( 96 - 92) = +4
HORSE "C" 96 96 ( 96 - 96) = +0
HORSE "D" 100 100 (100 - 100) = +0
Horse "A" has the fastest turn time (+6) which is one length (2 points) faster than Horse "B" (+4).
Also, note that HORSE "C" & "D" have the same turn time (+0). Horse "D" (E1=100) ran 2 lengths (4 points) faster up to the 1st call than Horse "C" (E1= 96) but Horse "D" (E2=100) was still 2 lengths faster up to the 2nd call than than Horse "C" (E2= 96). Therefore, Horse "C" and Horse "D" ran the same speed between the first two calls.