I wish I could find it again, but someone posted odds based on yesterday's double with the Belmont. Mo was 2-1 and WTP was 2.9-1. The Derby winner Rich was about 6/7-1. So looks like your odds could be a little better than 2-1 on WTP.

I plan on doing the same-- P5. R8 I'll try to beat Arrest Me Red. R10 try and beat Gufo. I plan to use both on my ticket but go 5 to 6 deep with other contenders.

I like Mo Donegal. Was 10 wide in the Derby. Will get a better trip. WTP is the only +5 Q (E6), but doesn't have extreme E1/E2 pace numbers. Will he bounce off his ATH speed figure? Certainly can get the lead. But will there be any pace pressure? I think Mo will be a little closer to the pace. Always swings wide, but won't have to go 10 wide. Has solid pace and speed numbers versus the field, and I'm looking for him to improve off the Derby effort.

Wow!! Very nice. A lot of data there. Like the color coding. But I see the point of your original post.

Dave, thank you for the video. At least for me, it was very helpful. I have a few questions, if fellow handicappers in the forum could please provide their thoughts.
1. I use BRIS. From what I've read, horses with a +6, +10, etc Prime Power point advantage win at a very high percentage (of course many times at very low odds like 1-2). How to play? Many do not look vulnerable but still get beat.
2. How to play small 5 and 6 horse fields where you land on the 8-5 and 2-1. Always separate using jockey/trainer (and other factors), or Dutch? Also, happens in 7+ horse fields, then Dutch?

I'm thinking time and money. To build a program to look at factors in multiple ways and to run data in something 3-dimensional versus one horse at a time would take a lot of time and money. I don't think individual horseplayers have either. If they did, do they want to commit to that kind of investment. Finally, can you build something that will work and is profitable?

Working okay now. Thanks.

Is the video still available? Watched it this morning and getting an error now. Thanks, JIm.
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<Code>AccessDenied</Code>
<BucketName>hstreet</BucketName>
<RequestId>tx000000000000000087c82-00627afc95-13e350d78-us-east-1-iad1</RequestId>
<HostId>13e350d78-us-east-1-iad1-us-east-1</HostId>

I pretty much use them like you. A <5% trainer, I'll leave the horse off my ticket most of the time. I may wager on a horse if the trainer has a high win percentage in an individual statistical category such as "46-90 days away" even though the trainer's overall win percentage is <10%. But I look at other factors, not just the positive trainer stat.

I'm hoping to dig into this a little more this week. E, E/P, P or S-- is there any trend? High early pace or late pace ranking?

Try again.

I found a 2013 article that someone over on PA posted that has the information (see below). The data would have to be dusted off since it's from 2013. Probably not too many changes. But it's not in any ready to use mechanical/Excel format. Guessing that a table behind the scenes would have to be built. Not sure if this is something you want to undertake as a programmer? I understand if you don't. The effort to program, and then the visit to the "rabbit hole" as you say. May not be worth it. Thanks, Jim.

Good afternoon, Steven. I'm interested with working with you on a new spot play. Or at least running it by you. This idea is from my brother. It's a little unique. Also, may be difficult to code since I don't think that the different track's configurations are easily available in current files. Maybe I'm wrong on that.
1. Last race was a 2-turn race. Any distance but was run at 2-turns.
2. Today's race is a 1-turn race at 6.5 to 8.0 furlongs.
3. Today's qualifier(s) have a high ranked late pace (LP) [1st, 2nd], or the LP is within *5 points* of the 1st ranked LP.
For example, a horse runs a 2-turn race at 1 1/16 miles, and today is running 1-turn at 7.0 furlongs. Has the 2nd best LP.
It gets a little tricky since some tracks have 2-turn 8.0's and others are 1-turn. So, it's not always a cut back in distance. The distance could be the same, but today the race is 1-turn versus 2-turns. Also, the "shipper" angle then comes into play.
Thanks, Jim.

Thanks Steven. Let me give some thought to any add-ons. I agree with your statement about 100% mechanical methods and angles. Tom did post this-- "hitting over 50% winners in the top 2, 64% in the top 3, and 25% exactas in the top 3." Thanks again for your help.

I'm not sure what to make of the results. Below is from yesterday 15JAN2022 at GPX and TAM. I tossed 1 maiden race at TAM since there were several FTS's. I highlighted a couple of overlays. There is at least 1 overlay in almost every race. So I think you need to add additional handicapping and/or use in verticals and horizontals. I know Tom provided a few working examples at the start. Perhaps he can provide a few more.
GPX
ML 3 / UOL 4.5
ML 3.5 / UOL 3.5
1.2 / 4.5
15 / 15
4.5 / 3.5
1.2 / 1.8
4 / 2.5
4 / 4
2.5 / 2
3.5 / 3.5
20 / 56
TAM
ML 30 / UOL 22
ML 2 / UOL 1.6
3 / 15
3.5 / 3.5
4 / 6
2 / 3.5
5 / 7
10 / 4.5
2 / 1.8

Thanks Steven. I'm very busy this week. But I have the new version downloaded and will try and test drive it this weekend or sometime next week. Thanks, Jim.

Okay, if it's an easy fix.

Okay, I was not aware of this rule-- "the software will only rank the top 5 horses, all others will be 100-1." I checked several entries, and this appears to be what's happening. The top 6th or 7th low ML entries that I checked are earning points in the 5 categories, but LESS than the top 5, therefore are 100-1. I think you'll see the same. Just had me concerned when I saw it. Thanks, again-- Jim.

Good morning Steven. There appears to be a bug where some UOL's are defaulting to 100-1. I checked a few entries today 12/30 from AQU, GPX and FGX. I tried to find a pattern, but didn't see anything. If you check some of the low ML entries, 3-1, 4-1, etc, you'll see where the UOL's are 100-1. Thanks, Jim.

Thanks for the updates Steven. Mixed results today. But, just looking for overlays with no other handicapping. 2 Wins and 5 Places. Did catch another $40+ winner. Also, noticed a few selections that were bet down to, or close to the UOL, that would have been thrown out if you were simply looking only for strong overlays.
FGX
R3 - #4. (ML 5-1 / UOL 2-1). Out. #10 (ML 10-1 / UOL 4.5-1). Out.
R4 - #2 (6 / 2).Out.
R5 - #1 (8 / 5). 2nd - $9.20. #13 (10 / 3.5). Out.
R7 - #9 (8 / 2.5). Out. #3 (6 / 3).Out.
R8 - #1 (8 / 3.5).2nd - $5.20.
R9 - #6 (8 / 2.5). Out. #12 (15 / 3.5). Out.
R10 - #7 (8 / 2.5). 3rd.

HAW
R1 - #5 (5 / 2.5). 1st - $7.80 / $4.20.
R2 - #3 (6 / 3). 2nd - $5.20.
R5 - #1 (10 / 4.5). Out.
R6 - #10 (8 / 3.5). Out.
R7 - #6 (8 / 3).Out. #10 (12 / 6). Out.
R8 - #5 (4.5 / 2). 2nd - $3.20.
R9 - #2 (15 / 7). Out.

PRX
R3 - #9 (5 / 2.5). Out.
R4 - #4 (4.5 / 2.5). Out.
R6 - #1 (4.5 / 2). Out. #8 (6 / 3.5).Out.
R7 - #6 (5 / 1.4). Out.
R8 - #9 (10 / 3). 1st - $47.20 / $15.20.
R10 - #6 (6 / 2.5). Out. #5 (6 / 3). 2nd - $6.20.