Thanks Jeff and group. Doing better each day. Had a deviated septum (difficult to breathe) which led to chronic sinus infections that antibiotics could not get rid of. After 25+ years, decided to take care of it before 2026. The surgeon broke the septum and areas around the sinuses in 4 places. Then removed some bone and tissue. Then scraped out all of the mess and infected tissue in the sinuses.
No more packing with gauze/fabric post-op. They use what's called Doyle splints that are sutured around the septum to keep it in place for a week. Get the splints removed in 3 days. I'll start to really breathe and feel better in about 2-4 weeks. Wish I had taken care of this years ago. I'll be "back in the saddle" before too long.

Nasal surgery. Chronic sinus infections, etc, etc for 25+ years. Decided to get it taken care of before the new year. Went well, no issues. Back in the saddle within a few days.

I checked the higher priced winners and found several of them that ranked high in Abby Pace BH (abPACE). Maybe something to add.
GPX R5 - #2 BH2
GPX R1 - #6 BH2
FGX R5 - #2 BH1
GPX R9 - #8 BH1
TPX R3 - #10 BH2
DED R6 - #4 BH2
TPX R8 - #5 BH2
RPX R7 - #3 BH1

Your initial results look promising. Could you please provide an example or two? I want to make sure I'm following exactly what you're doing.
I would start with some quick and simple modeling. Maybe to start, take the 10 winners and check them versus Core Pace, abPace and the Neal. I would be looking at (for example) Best Horse and SR. Do the winners fall within a certain ranking? Is there a range in the Neal where you're finding the winners.

Sometimes it's easier to simply let the value/price horses come to us instead of trying to search for them. Here's a few from yesterday 03DEC2025.

TAM R1 - #8 $12.00. 3 contenders here. The #8 has good Core LP and SR. 88:4 - also qualifies using the "Neal" 142 rating.
TAM R2 - #8 $22.40. There were just 2 contenders and the BH 2 won-- Dutch both contenders. Notice that Core Pace also had this horse as a BH 2 making it a very strong play.
PRX R7 - #3 $29.60. 3 contenders here. The #3 ranks 1st with Jockey and 2nd with Trainer.
TPX R1 - #5 $9.58. Just 2 contenders here-- Dutch both. Core Pace also has #5 as a BH 1 making it a very strong play.
TPX R8 - #10 $23.30. Just 2 contenders-- Dutch both. Not exceptional in any one factor, but solid across all of the Tie Break factors.
TPX R9 - #11 $15.38. 3 contenders here. Core Pace has #11 as a BH 1, and rank 1's LP and SR-- making it a very strong play. Also, qualifies using the low 88:6 "Neal" 37 rating.

If any questions, please let me know.

PARX cancelled after 2 races today, but another nice day at MVR.
7 races, 5 winners on top. Another missed by a nose. Prices not too big, but these BH Rank 1's and 2's work well as "leverage" and sometimes pay nice prices.
R1 - #1 $9.00
R4 - #1 $7.80
R5 - #1 $2.80
R6 - #8 $8.20
R7 - #9 $5.80

Good day at PARX today. 5 winners on top*. Two others were BH Rank 2's.
R1 - #3* $6.60
R4 - #3* $19.20
R5 - #4 $2.40
R6 - #4* $5.20
R7 - #1 $7.40
R9 - #3* $6.60

Also, 4 BH Rank 1 winners at MVR.
R3 - #2 $7.80
R6 - #3 $5.00
R7 - #4 $5.40
R8 - #1 $4.20

I use the Tie Breakers when I have 3 or 4 contenders-- and then I try to narrow my wagers down to two horses. Can't wait to see how this works.

Curious if you're capturing "Cap" the weights that are there or if you've played around using your own weights?

Other ratings like PSR also include other factors like statistical data, pace, running style, jockey, etc. It's not just a form rating. Since both are proprietary, we don't know the exact factors or how they're weighted. Higher is better. Guessing the ELO would work well for selecting contenders.

I don't use AmWager. Curious how their ELO scores compare to PSR, cPwr, cRtg or BRIS Prime Power? Specifically ranking the horses in a race. For example, in a 6 horse field, do the horses rank 1 through 6 the same using AW ELO and PSR? Maybe check about 10 races to see any differences and how it performs.

So, it can't use AI, rather it uses statistical methods-- using a lot of data.

An "atypical" couple of days with large fields, foreign invaders and the public wagering much more than usual. Isn't representative of the CAW's impact on most racing days. I would still prefer cutting off the CAW's 2 to 5 minutes to post.

Okay. While modeling, I was wondering if the results would hold up at other tracks. Looks like you're getting similar results using SAX which is good news.

Is the 20 races a mix of tracks or only tracks that you play? The modeling I completed used BAQ, GPX, WOX, FLX, MVR and PRX. Curious if you were using different tracks.

Finished with modeling. Maybe get back to it in the next few weeks just to see if there's any significant changes. I used Brian's spreadsheet, but I tailored it towards what I wanted. So it's a little different.

"L-0: No low odds horses." 12 of 30 winners were BH Rank 1. Again keyed by LP, SR and Spd. The BH Rank 1's are strong contenders. Average win payouts in the L-0's was about $12.58. There were 6 +$20 winners in this category.

"L-1: 1 horse <2.91-1." This is by far the largest category. BH Ranks 1 and 2 were winning at 28.9%. Again, LP, SR and Spd. Also, E and EP not far behind. BH Rank 1's were winning at 28%. Seems a good handicapping strategy would be to ignore the BH Rank 1's, or only include them if they are very strong. Even then, look to adjudicate them if they are ranked low in trainer, jockey and/or condition (or whatever factors you like to use).

"L-2: 2 horses <2.91-1." BH Ranks 1 and 2 won at 53.8% of the time. Again-- LP, SR and Spd work well. Noticed that BH Ranks 2 with E and EP together work well. Also, BH Ranks 1 and 2 won the same number of races at 26% each. Note: 50% of the winners-- tTrk (Trainer at the Track) were Rank 1 or 2.

If any questions, please let me know.

Thanks Dave, gave me another idea to add to my handicapping approach.

Thanks. Plan to check out a few more races next week. Not sure if it matters, but I've been modeling only the 3-4 tracks that I wager on.

Excellent videos Dave!! If you had told me that PSR Rank 1 horses that are NOT 1st or 2nd Public Choices only win at 12.2%-- I would not have believed you. The same with FTBL2 and FTB2L3.
Also, "Horses bet down to the Favorite are better bets than horses that were projected to be the Favorite to begin with".

Yes, it's there. Jumping into the first video now-- thanks.