Wow, quite the story.

Why or what would cause H3 to produce inferior numbers to HSH2 (or did it) with some of the factors? Curious what kind of wagers Rook made-- win, horizontal, etc.? 2006, not sure if the Whales were around then?

Duffy (PickMaster) was going to test the BALO's using over ten years of data in his HSH database (the Model folder). We're hoping to further identify losing BALO's.

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@PickMaster

Sorry, we're looking to see if you kept the actual data-- Date, Track, Race# and Horse #.

Checking to see if we can leverage your work. You may have saw the other thread in reference to starting a BALO research study. I spoke to Duffy and we were thinking to start with 1,000 of your BALO's-- Date, Track, Race# and Horse#. Duffy said he could then bang those races in a study to test against the database and share the results with the group.

Wow-- 10,560. Do you have the win percentage for the BALO's? Also, "AI Line, but not a magnitude 1 horse in either the AI BH, Pace E, Pace EP, Pace LP, or Pace SR"-- did you track the win percentage for say BALO's that failed more than one of the 5 tests? For example, BALO's that failed AI BH plus 2 of the pace tests? Curious if more fails lowered the win percentage.

Public school. The chalkboard pointer stick with the rubber tip across the back of the thighs. Known as "licks". If I remember correctly, two (2) licks for not turning in homework or misbehaving. Gym teacher-- Mr. Barto. First day of class, he read off the rules and punishment like a prison boss man. Like prison, there were still fools who tested the rules.
About 10 days into the new year, there was a knock on the classroom door. Mr. Barto went out in the hallway, came back in and retrieved his trusty pointer stick, and went back out. We then learned that the boss man was also the judge, jury and executioner for other teachers who preferred not to carry out the punishment. The boss man's rules and punishment carried a wide jurisdiction.

Interesting. SAR and TPX-- tough on favorites. Surprised KEE not so much. Also, shows as expected, the Win Pct is much higher than 20-30 years ago. Thanks for the research.

Duffy, here's a BALO idea I thought of (not sure if it's something we can do by simply running reports). Contenders with ML 2-1 or less. Which factors point to these contenders being a BALO. Maybe the low $net factors? Opposite of picking winners. IOW, contenders that Rank 1 or 2 in these factors are BALO's. Create an Object we can then test.
If not, I like you're idea of back-checking 1,000 BALO races and coming up with the factors that way.

Yes, I'm very much interested in this. I don't have any new ideas other than the work you already did for $net and =>3-1 odds at GPX, TAM and PRX. So I'm open to any suggestions and the BALO idea may be a good start.

You're correct. With DET, we have the AI Line, AI Best Horse, Chaos 1-5 and the 62: & 88:. I guess that sometimes we tend to line-up what we have with his "Boards". I prefer the combination of what DET has. Chaos 1-5, we could make the argument that there are five (5) different types of races versus the four (4) "Boards".
I don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions.

I grew up in Louisville, so I still get excited about the KY Derby-- the lead up to it and the Triple Crown. My passion for horse racing and handicapping started at a young age while living in Louisville.
I don't have any early bets. It's been a crap shoot for me over the years. Best I did was Lil E. Tee back in 1992. Pat Day's only Derby winner. Had Mo Donegal a few years ago. Ran okay in the Derby and ended up winning the Belmont. Wasn't quite ready on Derby day. I have a feeling that a Baffert horse will win this year. He's hell bent on winning the Derby again after being suspended (just a 6th sense feel on it).

The new PRS factors are in the "Christmas Upgrade" thread.

There's also the new PSR horse and PSR race factors that you can use to setup a report/object.

Yes, I agree. As far as BRIS and Pip, I would question how they determined the bias and then how do you go about using it.

I've found track bias very difficult to use-- it's like trying to "time" the stock market. Check out Bob Pandolfo's track bias comments for Aqueduct at handicappingwinners.com . Pandy has a very detailed day-to-day analysis. Look how often he says there's a bias, but the next day it's gone. Pandy likes to play horses in their next race that for example performed well against what he determined was a speed/closing bias. But, that takes a lot of work and tracking, and it's somewhat subjective.

My opinion is that you don't always eliminate the Top horse. I think it needs further research and testing. As I said in the the other thread-- maybe start with the AI BH, the Neal and the *PS genre using the Obj Odds of the Top 2 horses. Test 50 races and see what you find.

One of the tracks I play is Gulfstream Park. The PSR Rank 1 horse has won 22 out of the last 87 races-- 25.29%. The PSR Rank 1's have won only one (1) out of the last 11 races. PSR Rank 2 & 3's have won 15 races each-- 17.24% each. 8 FTS's have won. Seems PSR Rank 1's are a little short right now. Maybe the winter or the competitive meet going on now.
On the other hand, at PARX, PSR Rank 1's have won 30 or 33.33% of the last 90 races. The Rank 2 & 3's have done very well at 18 and 17 wins each. PSR has been very strong the last 90 races at PRX. PRX has had recent runs where the PSR Rank 1, 2 or 3 won in 9 and 12 straight races. Not sure how long this trend will continue.

I'm hosting tonight since Brian is out. The Zoom is now open.

I'm not sure that any of these factors can be used by themselves and be more predictive then the key past performance data as a whole. While a contender may have an advantage in 1 or 2 key factors, they may rank lower in others. I think you have to look at for example-- speed and pace with these other forms of class.