I'll be checking out contenders from the Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas Derby's. Also, watch Dave's "My Playing Strategy Plus Kentucky Derby, 2022" video. Search in the Forum and you'll find the video from a few years ago. If you don't like the favorites, this video will help you find the longshots.

I didn't much time yesterday. Will look at it a little more closely over the next few days. Here's a couple I noticed from yesterday.
05APR2025 AQU R12 (Wood Memorial). #1 Rodriguez. PED E. Click thru the Pace-- E 3 until the finish-- Mag 1's. Speed on the Rail and good cEP and cFT-- paid $9.30.
05APR2025 SAX R12. #2 Lammas. 10-1 ML. AI BH 1 1. RED E. Passes most of the Pace E's, EP's and LP's-- and all of the E, EP and LP psr and cls. Went off at 6-1, below the ML and AI (Neal)-- paid $14.40.

Flip-side. 25 Dirt races at MVR, PRX, GPX and TAM (no MSW, MdClm or 4-horse races). RED Running Styles EP, LP and SR. Only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
16 Turf races at GPX and TAM (EP, LP and SR)-- no 8 or 7 ES point winners.
15 Tapeta races at GPX (EP, LP and SR)-- only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
Sample size is small. But it does appear that ES 8 and 7 front runners struggle when the RED Running Style is not E.

Here's a good BALO check (unfortunately it doesn't happen all that often). NOTE: I've been testing all races except MSW, MdClm and 4-horse races.
Dirt races with the Red Running Style E or EP on the My Hcp screen. Horses with Running Style (RS - 402) 4 and 5 with Early Speed points (ES - 202) 0 or 1 Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
Turf races with the RED E (NOTE: I tested GPX and TAM). Horses with 0 or 1 Early Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
GPX Tapeta races with the RED E. Have tested the last 28 Tapeta races with the RED E-- have not come across a horse with 0 or 1 Early Speed points that won.
It takes a pretty good horse with 0 or 1 ES points to close and win a Running Style E race.

Both horses were "high odds" horses. But, both races were "Chaos 5" races. If you decided to swing for the fences, and dutch 6 horses at FG and 5 horses at AQU-- you would have received a nice return.

I can only guess that they ran for "horse grain and/or supplements". Instead of purse money-- a month or two supply of "feed".

I would prefer to leverage the PSR work that I've already completed (and still in progress). Everyone is welcome to it.

Summary: 200+ races (no maiden races). I used GPX, TAM and PRX. PSR Rank 1 contenders win ~31%, Rank 2 ~20% and Rank 3 ~18%. PSR Ranks 1, 2, 3 ~ 70%. Ranks 4 and higher ~30%. Chaos 5 races, Ranks 4 or higher win at a higher percentage.

Keep in mind that the above are averages and results go in spurts (as Dave says above). Streaks where a Rank 1, 2 or 3 contender wins 12 out of 14 races; or a Rank 4 or higher wins 6 out of 10.

All of this circles back to Dave's takeaways above-- Hit Rate and Value. I know that PSR Ranks 1, 2 and 3 contenders achieve hit rate. So what I'm working on now is a BALO process to eliminate contenders with AI Lines <2-1 (1.99-1 or less). Brian just gave me and idea on how to help the process that I think will work.

Then something like this. Chaos 0, 1, 2 and 3 races-- focus on hit rate. Determine if a low odds AI line contender can be eliminated and play the other PSR contenders. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- focus on value. Look to include PSR Ranks 4 and higher contenders. PSR Rank 3 contenders pay about ~$11.60; so you simply cannot dismiss all of the low rank PSR contenders. Need a mix.

My opinion, something like this. PSR Rank 1, 2 and 3 contenders in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- Low Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.
PSR Ranks 4 and higher in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- High Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.

If I have time this week, I would like to calculate a risk score. Have a lot going on plus a full day of auto/air travel. I may be able to complete a small sample just to see what it looks like.

But, I'm not sure how to calculate the risk score or what this would look like in Excel (the values in the calculation)? I usually end up with 2, 3 or 4 contenders. Would the risk score be based on all of the contenders or just the final 1 or 2 I come up with?

Play along Day 1, the 6 mandatory races (after scratches).
OPX R2 - #7
TAM R5 - #8
AQU R6 - #3
GPX R9 - #8
SAX R5 - #4
TPX R3 - #5

Play along Day 1, the 6 mandatory races.
OPX R2 - #7
TAM R5 - #12
AQU R6 - #5
GPX R9 - #8
SAX R5 - #4
TPX R3 - #5

There's also 10 optional races. My strategy would be to filter through all of the eligible tracks for Chaos 5 races looking for price horses. It's tough, not an easy task.

Wow, quite the story.

Why or what would cause H3 to produce inferior numbers to HSH2 (or did it) with some of the factors? Curious what kind of wagers Rook made-- win, horizontal, etc.? 2006, not sure if the Whales were around then?

Duffy (PickMaster) was going to test the BALO's using over ten years of data in his HSH database (the Model folder). We're hoping to further identify losing BALO's.

Ping:
@PickMaster

Sorry, we're looking to see if you kept the actual data-- Date, Track, Race# and Horse #.

Checking to see if we can leverage your work. You may have saw the other thread in reference to starting a BALO research study. I spoke to Duffy and we were thinking to start with 1,000 of your BALO's-- Date, Track, Race# and Horse#. Duffy said he could then bang those races in a study to test against the database and share the results with the group.

Wow-- 10,560. Do you have the win percentage for the BALO's? Also, "AI Line, but not a magnitude 1 horse in either the AI BH, Pace E, Pace EP, Pace LP, or Pace SR"-- did you track the win percentage for say BALO's that failed more than one of the 5 tests? For example, BALO's that failed AI BH plus 2 of the pace tests? Curious if more fails lowered the win percentage.

Public school. The chalkboard pointer stick with the rubber tip across the back of the thighs. Known as "licks". If I remember correctly, two (2) licks for not turning in homework or misbehaving. Gym teacher-- Mr. Barto. First day of class, he read off the rules and punishment like a prison boss man. Like prison, there were still fools who tested the rules.
About 10 days into the new year, there was a knock on the classroom door. Mr. Barto went out in the hallway, came back in and retrieved his trusty pointer stick, and went back out. We then learned that the boss man was also the judge, jury and executioner for other teachers who preferred not to carry out the punishment. The boss man's rules and punishment carried a wide jurisdiction.

Interesting. SAR and TPX-- tough on favorites. Surprised KEE not so much. Also, shows as expected, the Win Pct is much higher than 20-30 years ago. Thanks for the research.

Duffy, here's a BALO idea I thought of (not sure if it's something we can do by simply running reports). Contenders with ML 2-1 or less. Which factors point to these contenders being a BALO. Maybe the low $net factors? Opposite of picking winners. IOW, contenders that Rank 1 or 2 in these factors are BALO's. Create an Object we can then test.
If not, I like you're idea of back-checking 1,000 BALO races and coming up with the factors that way.

Yes, I'm very much interested in this. I don't have any new ideas other than the work you already did for $net and =>3-1 odds at GPX, TAM and PRX. So I'm open to any suggestions and the BALO idea may be a good start.