Yes, I agree. As far as BRIS and Pip, I would question how they determined the bias and then how do you go about using it.

I've found track bias very difficult to use-- it's like trying to "time" the stock market. Check out Bob Pandolfo's track bias comments for Aqueduct at handicappingwinners.com . Pandy has a very detailed day-to-day analysis. Look how often he says there's a bias, but the next day it's gone. Pandy likes to play horses in their next race that for example performed well against what he determined was a speed/closing bias. But, that takes a lot of work and tracking, and it's somewhat subjective.

My opinion is that you don't always eliminate the Top horse. I think it needs further research and testing. As I said in the the other thread-- maybe start with the AI BH, the Neal and the *PS genre using the Obj Odds of the Top 2 horses. Test 50 races and see what you find.

One of the tracks I play is Gulfstream Park. The PSR Rank 1 horse has won 22 out of the last 87 races-- 25.29%. The PSR Rank 1's have won only one (1) out of the last 11 races. PSR Rank 2 & 3's have won 15 races each-- 17.24% each. 8 FTS's have won. Seems PSR Rank 1's are a little short right now. Maybe the winter or the competitive meet going on now.
On the other hand, at PARX, PSR Rank 1's have won 30 or 33.33% of the last 90 races. The Rank 2 & 3's have done very well at 18 and 17 wins each. PSR has been very strong the last 90 races at PRX. PRX has had recent runs where the PSR Rank 1, 2 or 3 won in 9 and 12 straight races. Not sure how long this trend will continue.

I'm hosting tonight since Brian is out. The Zoom is now open.

I'm not sure that any of these factors can be used by themselves and be more predictive then the key past performance data as a whole. While a contender may have an advantage in 1 or 2 key factors, they may rank lower in others. I think you have to look at for example-- speed and pace with these other forms of class.

5+ count. I believe this refers to-- the number of early pace horses (E, E/P, P) with 5 or more Quirin speed points.
For example the Pace Pressure Gauge (PPG) is 31 x 1. The 31 represents the total of all E, E/P and P's with 5+ speed points. For example: there's an E8, E/P7, E/P6, E/P5, E/P4, P5 and P3. The 8+7+6+5+5 = 31. The "x 1" represents the one E horse.
When the PPG exceeds 21, the pace bias shifts slightly to a late pace bias. The opposite if it's under 21.
We use Running Style (RS) numbers versus letters like E and E/P:
7 & 8's - Frontrunners
5 & 6's - E/P's (sprints)
4 & 5 & 6's - E/P's (routes)
The total is represented in the bottom scroll line on My Handicap. You'll see something like _ES: (25) 8-6-6-5 or _ES: (18) 6-5-4-3. _ES: (25) - a slight late pace bias and _ES: (18) - a slight early pace bias.

Interesting subject. I read Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping which talks about the Pace Picture and the Cast of Characters-- E, E/P, P, P/C and C. Picturing how the race will unfold based on the number of E's, E/P's, etc. in the race (and their Speed Points).
Personally I found it difficult to pick contenders. For example, races with no E and four E/P 6 and 5's. Who's going to get the lead? Also, I believe you need to consider Post Position (early speed outside of early speed) and any rail bias. Some races are very obvious and you feel like genius when you're right. But, there's so many different scenarios, I had a difficult time with it. Also, I believe that there is a lot of work involved in this handicapping process-- evaluating fractional times and when multiple horses share a running style, compare their performances against similar race conditions. Much to do.

I use the Class factor 213 (or 13 rClass) in my contender selection process. To separate contenders, I don't look at up or down, rather I rank the horses by class and look for a large gap/break. I'll give it a try explaining.
Percentages & Probabilities 2022, Dave refers to this as the "King of Class" (about the 8:26 mark of the video). It's comprised of factors 14, 15 and 16. 14 - Earnings per Start (based on a % compared to today's purse). 15 - Earnings Box Consistency (6 points win, 3 points 2nd, 1 point 3rd divided by the number of starts times 6). 16 - Average Purse Value (based on a percentage compared to today's purse). I think I got this right based on the video.
I like to use the Class factor to separate contenders especially if there's a large gap. That's what I look for. Examples:
Today 08JAN2025 TAM Race 4. Sort and rank by class-- the top ranked horses are 65, 62, 53 and then there's a gap/break to the 4th ranked horse at 34 (19 point gap). To me these top 3 horses have the best class. The #1 Mamba with the 65 class rating won and paid $8.00.
Today 08JAN2025 TAM Race 6. Sort and rank by class-- the top ranked horse is 60 and then there's a gap/break to the 2nd ranked horse at 44 (16 point gap). The #3 Like with the 60 class rating won and paid $14.20.
I like to see large 15+ point gaps/breaks. These horses don't always win, but if they qualify under other factors like Pace, PSR and Trainer-- I have what I believe is a solid contender.

Yes, HDW, but I'm using several factors, not just early early speed. A horse may be close in early speed, but if it ranks low in the other factors, then it's most likely a toss. I don't look at each individual factor and look to qualify a horse as a contender because it just missed in one of them. Otherwise I may find a reason to qualify each horse in the race and for me that would not be a consistent handicapping process.

I would not have had the #8 using my handicapping. The horse had a low projected speed rating, low early speed and low class. Your worksheet says-- "...... 1 point lower ...... qualifying as a contender due to probable margin of figure error." Not sure what this means. I'm not sure you can handicap and consistently pick winners assuming/guessing there are figure errors. To me this wouldn't make sense and I'm not sure how many winners you would find from "marginal contenders". Also, seems like quite a bit of work.

Back to your original question about wet dirt, soft/yielding turf, eased horses and synthetic (Tapeta) tracks. I think you would need to back-test several races in each category and check the results. There's a lot of opinions out there, but I'm not sure if any have been validated. Like you, I struggled with this-- checking the horse's previous starts, trainer stats, pedigree, etc. But, I don't think there's a true answer without digging deeper and documenting findings in each of the categories.

Hello Tim. I'm using DET, but was not an HSH user. My understanding is that DET (the AI) creates a "synthetic" paceline using several fractions and calls. The AI then provides the final output which is expressed as a Hit Rate. It's a very complex process. I no longer use a paceline selection, rather use the DET AI Best Horse and other reports and objects to make selections.

Hello Pio. Welcome to the DET team.

Be careful in turf races because of the large fields and Euro's. The Euro's run well no matter their post position.

Thanks Ram. I'm going to add the BH to the strategy and see how it works. Obviously it seems to be working well at PRX.

Hello Neal. I've been working on a strategy similar to Ram. First I have one (1) report that I use to pick contenders. Then in the Final Step I meld the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines. For Turf and Tapeta, I meld a little different. Under GENRES I've been using ODS 63 with an Obj Wgt of "46". 46 will elevate a horse in this object versus using 50 or higher.
I think the key is being consistent, especially with the initial Prime AI melding. Dirt, sprints, routes, turf, track specific-- be consistent with what you use. I've found using the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines works pretty well for dirt races.

Thanks. I'll be on the call tonight.

Here's what I'm seeing. I want to make sure that I'm doing this correctly.
1. The first pop-up message: Loc: Glo_Filter_Name=NM-sp-s-turf. (17) Abort or Ignore. I select Ignore.
2. The next pop-up message: The AI Engine WILL handicap this race. Warning: Low Confidence Threshold. I select OK.
3. I then see at the bottom of the screen "LOW CONF" and "1". If you click the "1" you get "When you change the default Low Confidence System the race must be closed & reopened so the AI can re-handicap. The new pop-up is now: Loc: Glo_Filter_Name=Y-sp-s-turf. (21). When I reopened the "1" is now a "2".

Georgeontherun-- good name for a race horse.