Comments

  • TESTING deTERMINATOR BALOs
    Back to the Red SR and Running Style. Trying to wrap my head around how it relates to the 4 objects. Or does it? I see in some of the race examples with a Red SR that it's a Green 2 or a Green 4. Green 2 being its 2nd most in agreement with the Projected Odds. Green 4 being in least agreement with the Projected Odds. So, while Red SR is the most important running style, when checked against the Projected Odds, it could be in or not in agreement? IOW, the IA firsts determine the Red SR, but then when checks the Projected Odds it determines which Pace Objects agrees or least agrees with the Odds?
  • TESTING deTERMINATOR BALOs
    First, very good videos, easy to follow. Two questions.
    1. Maybe I missed it. Along the paceline, between o AIBH and o Pace E there's a bold red pace figure like "SR". I wasn't sure what that was for?
    2. Chaos races. I'm guessing that the AI ranks a Chaos "5" more chaotic than a "1"? In one of the races, you knew that it was a chaos race. Is that because there were two (2) contenders (2 Non-BALO's) or was there a field or something that indicated it was a chaos race? The Instruction or Strategy screen that you went to-- is that just for chaos races? It's a nice feature.
  • Reshaping this forum - Your ideas, please
    I also like the following ideas that Pony listed:
    A deTermnator board are where users can (with screen shots/jpg's)
    interact on problems and solutions to common questions/redboards.

    Invite guest user/handicappers to do a complete card with explanations.
  • Reshaping this forum - Your ideas, please
    Types of Wager Strategy & Money Management. I would like to better understand what to do once we've handicapped a race. For example, a 6-horse or an 11-horse field with a BALO. Or the opposite, there's no BALO in the field. We have our contenders, so now what do we do-- Win, Place, Exacta, Tri or Double wagers? Do we always wager on our Win contender(s) followed by an Exacta? Do we box the Exacta? Does field size come into play?
    Do we set-up separate bank-rolls for each type of wager? If yes, what percentage of our bank-roll should we wager within each. If we have a solid selection process, is it better to simply stick with Win bets? One unit to Win and 6 units to Place? When do we branch out (or should we) to Pick 4's and Pick 5's?
    There are so many different types of wagers available once we have our contenders it sometimes feels overwhelming. Then deciding how much of our bank-roll should we wager based on the types of bets.
    I need to and want to develop or more standardize approach if possible. Scenario A I make these wagers using this percentage of my bank-roll(s). If it's a Scenario B, I do this.
  • Ques004: AI BEST HORSE - ODDS SENSITIVE (LONGSHOTS)
    AI Best Horse: Odds Sensitive Handicapping. The AI BH odds go <2/1, <3/1, <9/2, 3/1+, 4/1+, 8/1+, 17/1+. Curious why the <9/2 and then 4/1+. I know the B=6 and we're looking at 5/1+, so it doesn't factor in, but just curious.

    B=6 is 5/1+ and B=11 is 10/1+. So, are the odds always minus 1 of B? B=8 would be 7/1+.

    Looking at the race example MVR05. #11 Scarlet is showing AI Odds 14.63. The 17/1+ column is circled red. Should that have been under the 8/1+ column. It's still a 1 & 1. Again, just following along and trying to understand the screens.
  • Ques001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING
    Maybe getting ahead of myself. The videos, I think, gave me a few ideas. I prefer to play horizontal wagers. Using the Daily Double as my example. Race 1 my contenders are #4 (rank 1) and #5/6 (rank 2). Race 2, #1 is a BALO. The contenders are #8 (rank 1) and #9 (rank 2). So, my Doubles would be something like #4 - #8 (4 units). #4 - #9 (2 units). #5/6 - #8 (1 unit). #5/6 - #9 (1/2 unit).
    PK3/PK4/PK5's I'm not sure about knowing that BALO's do win sometimes, maiden races with first time starters and all the other factors that come into play over 3, 4 and 5 race sequences. Look forward to the rest of the videos and maybe will answer some of my questions.
  • deTERMINTAOR Update
    Thanks for the update. I was thinking about this the other day. Look forward to seeing the videos.
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    Thanks for the information. I'll get back to you if I have any more questions.
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    Interesting. So hypothetically, let's say for this race I was able to watch the race. 1-2 minutes before the gates open the odds are #1 at 5/1, #3 at 11/1 and #10 at 7/1. Closer to what I had originally estimated.
    #1 $27 becomes $33 33 / 122 x 60 = $16
    #3 $12 becomes $48 48 / 122 x 60 = $23
    #10 $19 becomes $41 41 / 122 x 60 = $20

    The amount wagered is less on the 5/1, but more on the 11/1 and 7/1 than my original Dutching numbers (hence Reversed). Still a profit if any of them wins.

    Would 2 horses work like this? 7/5 and 5/1 and wager $40. I saw this on-line.
    #1 1/1.4 x 100 = 71 71/91 x 40 = $31
    #2 1/5 x 100 = 20 20/91 x 40 = $9
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    I used a Dutching calculator that's on-line. There's several out there and they seem to work the same.
    I was busy and couldn't be there for the race, so I estimated the final odds using the ML and my handicapping. ML #1: 4/1. #3: 6/1. #10 15/1. I estimated 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1. I thought these 3 horses would take money.
    Wagered $60.00 total. $28, $21, $10 on the #1, #3 and #10. Turns out the #4 at ML 8/1 who I tossed took quite a bit of money and went off at 7/2. The #1 went off at 6/1, #3 at 14/1 and #10 at 5/1.
    Not being there for the race cost me since I would have had more money on the #10. Or if my estimated projected final odds had been better would have helped.
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    Finished #10/3/6. The Even money favorite #8 was 4th. Wagered $60.00 and returned $63.00. +$3.00. I wasn't able to bet the race live. The 15-1 #10 ended up going off at 5-1. I knew 15-1 wasn't reasonable, thought more like 8-1. The 6-1 #3 ended up going off at 14-1. Did not expect that. Would have had a better profit if my projected final odds were better. On the positive side I did throw out the Even money favorite and 2 of my contenders finished 1-2. But it's not always this easy.
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    Maybe an example will help. Today, GPX R8. Using BRIS early/middle pace I narrowed the contenders down to #1, #3, #4, and #10. #8 has an overwhelming Prime Power number but in my opinion is vulnerable. Breaks between races and now in for the tag. Favorite in last 7 with 6 2nds/3rds. Just the 1 win. Irad is off.
    Next, I toss the #4 based on class and question the blinkers today. Leaves the #1, #3 and #10. I like the #1, so it's the #3 or #10. #10 has a tough post, but no real speed inside so should be okay. So, my decision is to Dutch these 3 rather than tossing either the #3 or #10. Let's see how it goes.
  • Monty Hall Inquiry
    I'm not a Dutch bettor, but I'm interested in the subject. For me it would be 2) and 3). Handicap my 3 contenders down to a single play and/or bet 2 or 3 horses in some sort of Dutch.
    Another question-- when is betting 2 horses better than 3 in a Dutch wager or vice-versa? Is it the projected final odds of the contenders, my handicapping cannot separate the 2nd/3rd contenders or other factors? For example, I have 3 contenders. One I like over the other 2, but not as a single. But I can't separate the other 2. Should I even try to separate the other 2, and if yes, when?
  • The deTerminator
    Thanks for the update. There're several program features that I think I'll enjoy using.
  • The deTerminator
    Interesting, not what I had pictured. Where do the odds or actual odds come from? Is it from the software, live odds or what I think the odds should or will be? Or any of these?
    It looks like I could use only the Choice column if I wanted. For example, the 1 and 2 are my contenders to win. 3 and 4 could possibly place. 5 and 6 maybe 3rd and 4th. 7 and 8 are longshots. Something like the following:
    1: 1
    2: 1
    3: 2
    4: 2
    5: 3
    6: 4
    7: 8 (or blank)
    8: 8 (or blank)
  • The deTerminator
    Sounds good. Thanks for the update.
  • My Las Vegas Experiences - circa 1970s
    Thanks, maybe for a later date. I'll always remember the look on Steve "The Kid" McQueen's face when Karl "Shooter" Malden was I think dealing bottoms. He wanted to beat "The Man" played by Edward G. Robinson so bad, and on the straight. You didn't know if The Man recognized what was going on, but I think he did. Very good movie.
  • My Las Vegas Experiences - circa 1970s
    Interesting story. Not sure if you can say or not, but did your friend and the mechanic run their scam? Instead of a big score, with their talent, seems that they would be able to run small scores over time. Where the friend wins and loses, but over time is up money and splits with the dealer. I would be too nervous to try something like that, especially in the '70's-- sort of like my fingers and my life as you say.
  • My Las Vegas Experiences - circa 1970s
    In reference to the 4-deck shoe. I'm guessing to start; each deck is new so the cards are in what I would call a "new deck order". What I've seen is the dealer then spreads the cards face down on the table and then swirls the cards around in a circular motion. Shuffles the cards and then into the shoe.
    1. Did the mechanic after several hours of practice figure out how to arrange the cards into the shoe?
    Not knowing exactly how you would play each hand-- hit(s), hold(s), split(s), etc-- seems impossible.
    2. Was he taking 1 card from the shoe each time or was he able to slide out 2 with just the one hand? Again, watching the shoe closely seems it would be easy to see more than 1 card coming out of the shoe.
  • Yes, I Am Back!
    Great news! I know you've put in a lot of time and effort into the new software. Look forward to seeing the "really cool stuff".