BC and more

Dave R

A few things I have found today. I handicapped all two days of last year's BC at SA. What seemed to get some really good results was using FS. I used AI BH 1.0, the 3 and 4 pace at 1.0. Then I used Meld on, Meld Obj 7, Obj Wgt 30 and #55 RS1. Super results and I would expect close to the same at DMR. I am pretty sure both tracks run pretty similar. Also found that if you play Parx use the same as above but on the genres switch to BH 37. Great results handicapping about 6 cards. Seems like we are tasked with finding the right combinations for each track.

[DES Edit: This thread could help a lot of people, so I've moved it to DET Questions, where it can be seen by the world.]

Dave Schwartz

↪Dave R

Did you check out the Chaos5 races with A+ horses on Friday?

(I only looked at Friday.)

Just to be clear... Last November's races were not included in the training set. The AI was trained during the summer and for Graded races I went all the way back to 2013.

Dave R

↪Dave Schwartz

I will check that later. I expect that pretty much every race will be a chaos5 race because of the big fields

Dave Schwartz

↪Dave R

Surprisingly, it was only the ones that actually had big payoffs, as I recall. LOL

Neal Freedman

Dave R,

Thanks for sharing. Could you possibly share some insights as to how you determined the initial Final Step setting and (e.g. in the case of Parx) how you determined which settings to change,

Thank you in advance.

Dave R

↪Neal Freedman

Same settings everytime. [img][/img] So far today every Rank1 and Mag 1 has won

Dave R

I tried to screen shot but I guess it didn't work LOL

Neal Freedman

I was thinking along the lines of how did you arrive at the original First Step settings (30% object weight and object #55) and how did determine that Parx needed a different object and then determine what object to select?

Thanks again.

Jim Pommier

↪Neal Freedman

Hello Neal. I've been working on a strategy similar to Ram. First I have one (1) report that I use to pick contenders. Then in the Final Step I meld the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines. For Turf and Tapeta, I meld a little different. Under GENRES I've been using ODS 63 with an Obj Wgt of "46". 46 will elevate a horse in this object versus using 50 or higher.
I think the key is being consistent, especially with the initial Prime AI melding. Dirt, sprints, routes, turf, track specific-- be consistent with what you use. I've found using the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines works pretty well for dirt races.

Dave R

↪Jim Pommier

I think BH is working better than AI. Have you compared them?

Dave R

So far today, thru 5 races at Parx, there has been two horses Ranked 1,1 in every race and they have won 4 out of 5 races and narrowly missing on the other.

Dave Schwartz

↪Neal Freedman Hello Neal. I've been working on a strategy similar to Ram. First I have one (1) report that I use to pick contenders. Then in the Final Step I meld the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines. For Turf and Tapeta, I meld a little different. Under GENRES I've been using ODS 63 with an Obj Wgt of "46". 46 will elevate a horse in this object versus using 50 or higher.
I think the key is being consistent, especially with the initial Prime AI melding. Dirt, sprints, routes, turf, track specific-- be consistent with what you use. I've found using the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines works pretty well for dirt races. — Jim Pommier

This is the stuff that makes Super Stars!
Thank you!
______________
Just a heads up... make sure that you track the Genres by Object Name instead of numbers because the numbers are regenerated alphabetically as new genres are added.
______________
I'd like to describe what you are doing with BOXES.

You'll want to make your own, but here's a starting point.

This is meant to be a simple worksheet with 4 races per page.

The top set is the explanation.
There are 4 COMPONENTS to your approach, numbered 1 thru 4.
"OOP" stands for "Order of Preference."

The 2nd set is a race that you won.
After the race is over, you use a highlighter to mark the winning horse.
The Fail Box contains a GREEN 0 to indicate that none of the COMPONENTS failed.

The 3rd set is a race that you lost.
After the race is over, you use a highlighter to mark the winning horse - GREEN to indicate the COMPONENT that had the winner, and RED to indicate that the COMPONENT FAILED.
The Fail Box contains a RED 3 to indicate the precise COMPONENT THAT FAILED.

Dave Schwartz

Although this is not a great form - I'm sure many of us could do better...

Here it is if someone wants it to print out.

Jim Pommier

↪Dave R

Thanks Ram. I'm going to add the BH to the strategy and see how it works. Obviously it seems to be working well at PRX.

Dave R

↪Jim Pommier

2 things I've learned in general is I do not include AI in the process and to only use 30% for the genres.

Dave R

I totally skipped step 1. Should I or shouldn't I include it? It might not matter, who knows! LOL

Jim Michalak

↪Dave R

i was following parx as well today, ram, after your genius recommendations. was the race it missed r4? that race fs suggested the 8 but the 4 which won and paid over $44 was a jockey switch to ruiz and a top work out horse. the $2x paid almost $300! the 8 placed and paid $8.60! thanks dave for your key insight! and jimmy p. thank you as well!

Jim Michalak

r6, at parx had a nice $15.60 winner as well over the 1/5 shot, using dave's approach.

Jim Michalak

ryan pip who is a really good handicapper had this to offer about del mar for the bc:

If you’re someone like myself, I’m not too up to speed with how the track plays at Del Mar.

With the Breeders Cup coming up this weekend, knowing what to expect from a track profile perspective is important. Compiling information from each day of racing this summer at Del Mar is of utmost importance when looking at what horses fit to how the track plays.

A few things stand out when looking at the results from a few months ago:

Early runners won 53% of dirt sprints

58% of dirt routes were won by early runners

Posts 1-3 won 46% of turf routes

Jim Pommier

↪Jim Michalak

Be careful in turf races because of the large fields and Euro's. The Euro's run well no matter their post position.

Jim Michalak

thanks, jimmy. especially charles appleby and others.

Gillycapper

don't forget these are the best horses in the field. traditional handicap or biases will not hold up. This is why on breeders' cup day I take shots! GL!

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