Dave’s “What’s Winning” workshop goes into much greater detail and explains much, much more.

Those are the values each rank gets. For instance if a horse has 10 firsts, he gets 7 x 10 for 70 points. He has 6 seconds and gets 4 X 6 for 24 points and then he has 5 thirds so he gets 1 X 5 points and then has a total of 70 + 24 + 5 = 99 points.

Thanks Tom. That’s most interesting and thank you for the info.

Hey Gang! I hate to be the one to tell you this but my QES analysis in all of the above is incorrect. I'll post new data in a bit PLUS, I have QES broken out by QES = 7-8, QES = 5-6 and QES = 3-4. That's how I found my bug in QES.

I don't want to derail this thread but Dave..

However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.

Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly.

GPX Turf Routes in PDF

GPX Turf Routes

Annnnnnd....

GPX Dirt Sprints in PDF

GPX Dirt Routes in PDF

And just to cover all bases

GPX Turf Sprints in PDF

GPX Turf Sprints

So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

You should have a good time with that.

I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races?

It really never ends does it?:razz:

Yes.

Horses are ranked according to early speed points so the best early speed points in the race are ranked 1st, second best in the race is ranked 2nd, third best in the race is ranked 3rd.

Dave, there are 4613 runners in 627 dirt sprint races from 1/1/2021 to 11/7/2021 and they are not broken out by shapes.

Interesting idea though and if I can work it in/up without having to stay up late, I'll see what I can do.

GPX Dirt Routes

Nahh. I think you did fine Ranch!

Gulfstream Dirt Sprints

QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI

There were 45 horses that paid double digits, $10.00 - $114.80. If you drop the $114.80 (maiden race) horse, the ROI drops to 2.05 and if the drop the second highest payoff $46.40 (claiming race), the ROI drops to 2.01. Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98.