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What's Winning at Gulfstream
  • Steven
    113
    Here is What's Winning at Gulfstream Park up through the first week of November. This is ALL races and I'll get around to breaking it down by surface and distance later.


    Column headers are ranks of:
    ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
    PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
    PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
    QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
    PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
    EP_25 EARLY PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    LP_26 LRS_27 LATE PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
    B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
    HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
    LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
    FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
    Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
    SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
    TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
    JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
    WO_39 HIDDEN WEOPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
    TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
    CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
    PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
    COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
    DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
    TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
    DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
    TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
    ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
    GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE
    Steven Options
  • Tony Kofalt
    397
    At first glance some good stuff there Steven. It will be cool to see how these hold up after a fe weeks
    Tony Kofalt Options
  • Steven
    113
    Thanks Tony. I'll get them separated out by distance and surface sometime today.
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    Gulfstream Dirt Sprints

    QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI

    There were 45 horses that paid double digits, $10.00 - $114.80. If you drop the $114.80 (maiden race) horse, the ROI drops to 2.05 and if the drop the second highest payoff $46.40 (claiming race), the ROI drops to 2.01. Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98.
    Steven Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98. — Steven

    Still shows how powerful it is.

    • How many races in the sample?
    • Is it ALL SPRINTS?
    • Have you considered breaking races out by ES Point "Shapes?"


    "Shape" means (for example):
    7-8's in the race?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Steven
    113
    GPX Dirt Routes
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  • Steven
    113
    Dave, there are 4613 runners in 627 dirt sprint races from 1/1/2021 to 11/7/2021 and they are not broken out by shapes.

    Interesting idea though and if I can work it in/up without having to stay up late, I'll see what I can do.
    Steven Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI — Steven

    How are you picking the horse(s) to bet?

    Most points?
    A minimum pct?
    Multiple horses?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Steven
    113
    Horses are ranked according to early speed points so the best early speed points in the race are ranked 1st, second best in the race is ranked 2nd, third best in the race is ranked 3rd.
    Steven Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    ↪Steven

    So, if you had a race where the horses were:
    • 8
    • 5
    • 3
    • 3
    • 1
    • 1
    • 0

    You'd play the 8?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Steven
    113
    Yes.
    Steven Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    ↪Steven


    So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

    And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

    You should have a good time with that.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    ↪Steven


    PS: Exciting, isn't it?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Steven
    113
    It really never ends does it?:razz:
    Steven Options
  • William Zayonce
    41
    What about races in which the top horse is a 5 or 6 AND also holds a 4 point edge?
    Steven
    William Zayonce Options
  • William Zayonce
    41
    Dave, there are 4613 runners in 627 dirt sprint races from 1/1/2021 to 11/7/2021 and they are not broken out by shapes.

    Interesting idea though and if I can work it in/up without having to stay up late, I'll see what I can do.
    Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge?
    William Zayonce Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge? — William Zayonce

    Yes, and please have this on my desk by tomorrow morning.


    Geez, Bill. Maybe clip a couple of c-notes to this request. LOL
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • William Zayonce
    41
    Sorry Dave! Not computer savvy at all. Didn't realize the magnitude of the task suggested. LoL!
    William Zayonce Options
  • Steven
    113
    :rofl:
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

    And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

    You should have a good time with that.

    I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races?
    Steven Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races? — Steven

    Yes.
    I'd expect that a 5-6 horse would perform better/differently in a field where there were no 7-8s.

    This is overly simplistic - and subsets cut down your sample sizes - demanding far more races. Like a full magnitude more.

    But the info you gather is huge, as are the ensuing improvements.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Steven
    113
    GPX Turf Sprints
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  • Steven
    113
    And just to cover all bases

    GPX Turf Sprints in PDF
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    GPX Dirt Routes in PDF
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    Annnnnnd....

    GPX Dirt Sprints in PDF
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    GPX Turf Routes
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    GPX Turf Routes in PDF
    Steven Options
  • Steven
    113
    Hey Gang! I hate to be the one to tell you this but my QES analysis in all of the above is incorrect. I'll post new data in a bit PLUS, I have QES broken out by QES = 7-8, QES = 5-6 and QES = 3-4. That's how I found my bug in QES.
    Steven Options
  • William Zayonce
    41
    Excellent Steven! Thanks for including PDFs! It's very thoughtful of you!
    William Zayonce Options
  • Tony Kofalt
    397
    ↪William Zayonce

    I second that thank you!!! Great stuff Steven!!
    Tony Kofalt Options
  • Tony Kofalt
    397
    Hey Steven,
    I've been looking at your data and have a question. I do see the general flow but there are 3 rows titled 1,4 and 7. Could you please explain at your convenience what each row represents? That will help me understand your sheets fully. Thanks
    Tony Kofalt Options
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