dennis: do you have any stats on balos finishing second or third? thank you!

using fave angle and 3 deT contenders in following race leads to a $2 $262 daily double!

r1 finger lakes: initial contenders were the 2,5,6. 2 was a balo and 5 was an f. so i liked the 6. this is where my favorite angle came in. day of the race jockey switch on the 7 to andrew worrie who was #2 in the standings only 1 win behind the leader, keibar coa. the 7 was also an a+ and a magnitude 2 horse.
so my bets were 6 and 7 to win, 7 to place as well since its' gate odds were 32/1. the double play was 6,7/1,3,6. for the x 6,7/all.

r2 finger lakes: my contenders were the 1,3,6. 1 was an f under best horse and thinking post race i probably should not have included it. the 6 was a balo but was a b+ under best horse. as a group we still seem to be determining when balos should be completely eliminated from the win position.

results: r1 the 7 won and paid $67 and $23.50 to place. the 7/5 x paid $113.75.

results: r2 6/3/1/2 6 won and paid $8.20. as previously noted the double paid $262.

notes: thanks to jimmy p. for asking a great question last night about how to easily and quickly find contenders. thanks to dave s. for a great answer!

usually the way i identify day of the race jock changes is to look them under equibase's track's race changes for the day. i did that today but none were listed for r1. however when i went to the track feed, it was listed on the crawl at the bottom of the page for race changes. so please be aware of that.

dave r. the "ram" please feel free to share some more of your winning stories. i found the first day 15K post and later wins of yours very inspiring!

contender selection:

who is probably going to win; look at:
1) ai line %'s
2) best horse %'
3) 0whales %'s

add horses %'s in each category that add up to a total of 62%! those are your initial contenders.

Dave: very productive meeting. I now know the 3 step approach to select contenders. A real time saver. Thank you Dave!

thanks, dave.

tote odds.

fave was .95/1. next closest horse was 6.80/1. dave what is the exact definition of a dominant odds horse?

the whitney was chaos 1.

early scratches now available at ellis park.

nice step up pony!

Thanks, Dave. Glad it is working like it is supposed to. Awesome webinar last night!

awesome idea.

dennis: great work on the study. i have a question: isn't your definition of a balo stricter than dave's? i thought a horse could be a balo if it was a 1 in aibh but not a 1 in all 4 pace categories simultaneously? i may be wrong. way to get us going, though!

I will attend, Dave. Thank you!

Yes. You should have 2 columns. One is your adjusted time and the other is original time which does not change.

dave: i have been having the same issue, including parx r9, 7/9/24.:grin:

neal; i was just tracking but i would have bet all 6 for a cost of $12. certainly in this case the payout of $39 justified it. as for parx you most probably correctly figured that i liked the 9 because of the jock switch. it also was an a+ horse. if i was actually betting i would have played the p3 as well as win bets. 4 versions. 9/5/4. 1,2,5,8,9/5/4. 9/5/1,3,4. 1,2,5,8,9/5/1,3,4. the 5 in r2 was not a balo and the strongest candidate in my opinion. in r3, the 1, 3 and 4 all had jock switches but i liked the 4 the best as eliseo ruiz is #2 in victories to only the dominant mychael sanchez. i would have played the straight 9/5/4 for 5 or $10 and the rest for a buck.

jim p. i am surprised you missed those. they were natural odds races. still, best of luck on your other races! :smile:

r1 at parx, the winner, the 9 had a race day jockey switch to 2nd leading rider eliseo ruiz as well.

dean: how do you get to psw3? thanks!