Based on overall past performance, current connections and today’s race conditions, does this horse figure to improve; regress; stay about the same; or unknown?

NY Bred races can be tricky trying to determine actual class…. I sometimes like to play horses like Tommy moving up and facing better off a MDC score; however, he’s going to face significantly more pace pressure and in my opinion, will have to improve “huge” to keep pace…. I see him wilting at the top of the stretch and fading from contention…. But, at 10/1 plus nothing wrong with taking a shot based on his strong connections.
BOL!

Tony, I’ll chime in and in case you decide to play “Bob”, I’ll help put him in the winner’s circle… I believe this horse has a better chance of finishing last than winning… Poor trip aside, this potential 30/1+ shot is trained by a conditioner that doesn’t appear to properly spot her horses… Her stats are woeful and it’s hard to find one positive category that she excels at?
I don’t play this track; but, based on my “general” bias notes, it seems that the outside draw might be a positive?
Regardless, I would prefer one of the first-time starters and if I could get 4/1+ on the #3, that would be my very tepid selection.
BOL

Sorry to learn you're in poor health.... Please take care!

All the best,
Jack

Question: Do you have performance data that illustrates historical Win%, Impact Values and/or ROI for any of the following features (ranks or otherwise)? If so, can you share this data and the corresponding sample sizes?

Quick Grid Odds Line
BPPELO
Carroll
CSR
VDC
S-Factor
Easy Form
FG
I O
Scott

Tony, nice analysis….hope you hit it!

I’m out after the first leg as I played against the big favorite as I had too many potential short prices in the back end…here’s my stab:
R1) A’s = 3,5,6
R2) A’s = 1,2,3,5,6 / B’s = 4,7
R3) A’s = 3,5,7
R4) A’s = 1,2,6 / B’s = 7
R5) A’s = 4 / B’s = 7,8

Ticket structure...so very important! Thanks for sharing this insight!

Ticket Structure- I'd suggest building multiple tickets requiring an A selection to win at least 3 of the races. B's should be slotted in on no more than 2 races per ticket.

I'm guessing the #6, Liam's Champ, will be 3/5 which should push your horse in the 6/1 or higher range.... Terranova is great with second time starters so your going to be getting great value!

Tony, wishing you big balloons tomorrow!!!

Here's the race files for Jan 29th.... BOL!

Updated file with early scratches.

Yes, Willaim makes a good case for #7 who should be a big price.

Tony, first the positives….

Pirate Rick is clearly in the best form of his life as Cash steps him up to graded stakes company off a six-day layoff! He clearly has a great chance to wire the field with his brilliant early speed and based on his last four “race shapes” of (Slow-Average); (Average-Average); (Slow-Slow) and (Slow-Slow), he certainly has the ability to relax on the lead! Plus, he gets your favorite jockey who seldom lets you down!

My small concern…. It’s been my experience (as I’ve learned the hard way) that “class” usually trumps “pace” in graded stakes company. It doesn’t appear that Pirate Rick has ever faced graded stakes caliber competition; however, as I look through the field this field, I do not see any true graded stakes, classy type winners…so, this shouldn’t be an issue. My biggest concern is the 7 furlongs as I don’t believe Pirate Rick has ever tried this distance? As you know, it’s truly a specialist distance and there’s others in this race perhaps more proven….

As far as Lasix “off”, I doubt that will be an issue as Cash surely knows his horse can handle no Lasix.

Bottom line, I like the aggressive single of Pirate Rick…. I’m most worried about the #3 Drafted or #8 Little Vic upsetting the apple cart…. Why not use them as “C’s” as that will not have a huge effect on your ticket cost…. Regardless, very best of luck!

AQU file for Jan 28th....

New file with early scratches.

Yes, way too much “randomness” for me…I’ve been knocked out of more scores going 4-5 deep in these types of races with some surprise winner…. Or, hit the “all” button and have the favorite romp!

Anyway, I love your approach…find a horse most likely to improve and single accordingly!

Aqu8…Lots to unpack in this one. First, we have a group of MDC 40 state bred claimers who all are lightly races, newly turned three year olds…that’s an immediate red flag for any “pre-handicapping” (especially trying to predict early pace to the first call!). That aside, my EARLY_LATE algo shows a small advantage for #6 to maybe have the lead at the first call; however, my early flag indicator projects an edge in early speed to #3 as well as ranks of 1 in both 1st Call and 2nd Call projections…this can be fairly typical where each handicapper has to decide how to handle conflicting details.

Upon digging a little deeper, my impression of #6, Garth Road, is clearly CHEAP speed as to date, he had been unable to run a decent final fraction (very slow FR3 "feet-per-second" time as denoted by the red (?) in the “FR3 Flag” column)…he definitely has the look of a quitting sprinter…. However, it’s interesting that he was claimed last time out by a decent trainer who puts up a bug boy and in addition, the horse is getting first time Lasix….

I agree with your assessment that the #3, East Call Girl, will most likely be on the lead as the horses approach the second call…. However, I’m also troubled by his inability to put up a decent FR3 (>=50 FPS). I’m also concerned about the first time starter #8, Bustinupishardtotdo, who has a very nice win early type pedigree and attract the services of Carmouche…the glaring negative is Michelle Nevin is 0 for 21 in the last year with her first time starters!

Honestly, I prefer the #1, Tunnel Vision, in this spot…He’s coming out of a much better race and figures to improve as a second time starter…also, figures to get a good stalking position and be right in the mix turning for home.... But, anything less than 2/1 would be "no thanks"!

Finally, the #4, Helicopter Money, drops and gets first Lasix and could be the wildcard?

This is my two cents and not really worth much more as I have an especially hard time with NY bred MDC races!

I won’t be playing this race; but I’ll sure be rooting for your horse to wire the field…. BOL!

Tony, here's tomorrow's AQU file for your review.... Unless otherwise instructed, I will plan on providing for the next few days.

BOL!

Tony, I’m resending today’s AQU file to include early scratches. Also, I inadvertently left out the projected SPD column yesterday… you need a final speed projection or something similar to really make this concept “sing”.

Too bad today’s track is muddy as that can affect all projections! Also, too bad that the jockeys don’t always cooperate with projected running styles!

Best of luck today!

Tony, in order to give you a “feel” for a potential race set-up sorting on projected early speed, I’ve attached a PDF for tomorrow’s AQU races for your review….

When Dave introduced New Pace several years ago, I was intrigued with his “EARLY vs LATE” approach and spent some time developing my own algorithm to accomplish the same…the output is a percentage projection based on who is most likely to have the lead at the first call (using all available PP’s up to and including the last ten)…the corresponding percentages are marked in the column titled by the same name. If interested, I’m sure you could generate something similar.

Unique to my handicapping style, I like to sort the race by best projected early pace downward to get a quick picture of how the race might run…I use generic running styles (pending a final review); Quirin Early Speed Points; an alert for superior early speed; and corresponding 1st and 2nd call pace “ranks” based on best two of last three races. In addition, I use a projected pace pressure gage as shown in each race header…This is something mentioned earlier that Dave / Randy Giles has shared in the past and is based on Early Speed Points.

Again, the idea is to have an automated “projection” to facilitate races of potential interest (and of course, subject to a final handicapping review).

Tony, you got it! Way to go!