With Aqu closed this Saturday I'll step outside my comfort zone and take a look at the late P5 from GP. The P5 consists of races 8 through 13, the last 4 being Grade 3's. Let's give it a go!
Race 8- 3yo a other than Allowance, 1 Mile on the dirt. (1 turn)
Projected figures- The 1 and 7 have a clear edge on my projected figs. Less than trustworthy situation as both horses are exiting maiden wins. The 3 and 6 are the only others projected less than 6 lengths back.
Pace setup- I expect the 3 and 7 to be the most prominent speed types. Pace should be honest but I can't identify any strong advantage here.
Comments- None
A's- 1,7
B's- 3,6
Race 9- 3yo G3 1 Mile& 1/16th on Turf
Projected figures- The 1 and 4 hold a comfortable figure edge with the 2 and 5 sitting a couple of lengths behind. Odds are good that one of these 4 will win.
Pace setup- Favorable inside draw makes the 1 a prominent pace player. Pletcher's 6 horse may be the one to press early. But with a fair break I can't make a case for the 6 to outrun the 1.
Comments- While the 2 finished behind the 1 and 4 last out, he did have a bad trip. Aside from bumping other rivals leaving the gate he also bumped the rail in early stretch. He has a license to improve.
A's- 1,4
B's- 2,5
Race 10- 3yo fillies G3 7 furlongs on the dirt
Projected figs- The projected figs don't narrow this field down as 5 horses (the 3,6,7,8,9) project within 2 lengths. I believe the 3,8 and 9 have the most room to improve.
Pace setup- The pace setup is cloudy as well with the 7 and 8 holding a narrow advantage. I found it difficult to narrow this race down.
Comments- I'm going to focus on the 3yo's most likely to improve.
A's- 3,8,9
B's- None
Race 11- 3yo fillies G3 1 Mile and 1/16th Turf
Projected figs- I've narrowed this one down to 3 contenders using the projections. The 1,2 and 8 have some seperation from the field here. The projection for the 2 were made from dirt races. I feel comfortable trying to beat her.
Pace setup- I believe Rosario will take advantage of his inside post and control the pace. The 1 is capable of rating just off the lead if necessary but I don't anticipate that happening.
Comments- Pletcher's 2-1 M/L favorite, the 7, was less than professional at the gate last out. That's not what I was looking for from a young 3yo. She's off our P5 ticket.
A's- 1
B's- 8
Race 12- 3yo G3 Holy Bull 1 Mile and 1/16th on dirt
Projected figs- My projections lead me to believe this is a 2 horse race, I'll use only the 4 and 8.
Pace setup- It won't be a surprise if two or three of these take shots for the early lead, but I expect the 4 to be the one to survive. If the 4 gets softened up a little, it's possible that Mott's improving 8 can roll by late.
Comments- As an early derby prep, we are sticking with the only two starters that look as if they could progress to triple crown races.
A's- 4
B's- 8
Ticket Structure- I'd suggest building multiple tickets requiring.an A selection to win at least 3 of the races. B's should be slotted in on no more than 2 races per ticket.
Ticket structure...so very important! Thanks for sharing this insight!
Ticket Structure- I'd suggest building multiple tickets requiring an A selection to win at least 3 of the races. B's should be slotted in on no more than 2 races per ticket.