(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.) — Dave Schwartz

If that were true, I would be A rich man.
Would you contact NYRA and explain that to them?

TY

It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been."

At NYRA tracks, jockey is a big part of my pace evaluation.
Too many riders refuse to use a horse's speed and some of them are big names,
When evaluating early horses, I have to take that into account.

A stat I look at is the riders's record by running style.

What I do is first look for overlays in the top 3 or 4. If I find a decent one, say my 7-2 line 3rd horse is 8-1, I'm really interested. If noting jumps out, I look at the lowest line horse and disparage it. Why can't it win, what's negative in its record, why can't it win? Often, the lowest line horse is just "terrible" on paper, all of its good numbers coming from a turf marathon on yielding grass a year ago in a stakes race and today it's in a 5.5F claimer on dirt. I may mentally add a half point for each major negative I find, say taking the horse from 9-5 to 3-1. Or just say "no thanks" and move on.
Since only the last line is used, I also double check to see if a potentially top rated horse got left out due to a bad last race that is really excusable.

If I have a 8-5 top horse, and the next horses are bunched, say 4-1, 9-2, 5-1....I might consider a part wheel over them, or, if the top horse is suspect, I might bet 2-3 others to win or W/P. The handicapping begins once the line is ready. Funny, it is much like the process Beyer outlined in his chapter "Putting it All Together" in his book Picking Winners," and just yesterday dnglfnk at PA talked about HE uses that very chapter in his process.

The composite and synthetic pace ideas make think your RegSpeedSort method might work well to elimiate the abberant pace figs and allow a deeper comparisob between early and other than early horses.

I came across a horse that might be relevent to not only paceline selection, but eliminating loe priced horses as weel. Today at Tampa Bay, R8, the 2-1 ML favorite looks suspicious at first glance. He dropped in class after a good race returning from a layoff, but not only didn't he win, he ran a significantly lower Beyer figure. Today, he is rising back up in class.

His DRF PPs and commentary are in the attached PDF file.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet.

That says more than many handicapping books!
Thanks for the list.

Tony,

An idea put forth by Randy Giles was to use the best of last 3 E2 and LP to rate horses who met certain criteria. I have used that many times over the years with annecdotal success (no data).

I have also tried best 2 of last 4 E2 and LP, and using the last 3 and throwing out the best and worst. So far, I having good results. I make 4 ratingd, E2, LP, Total, and Factor W (E2+E2+LP) / 3. I have tried the late version (E2+LP+LP) / 3, but results were marginal on dirt but slightly encouraging on AW rotes and turf routes.

Interesting to see what Dave says about composite pace.

Good list.
I like to find 2 lines, to make I'm not using abberant lines.
I want to to use lines that will show what the horse will do when at the right distance, surface, and class level. So I am not afraid to use lines #7 and #10 if that's what it takes. I am looking at pace ability, nothing else. Class, form, trainer intent can be evaluated using recent races, works, riders, etc.
Howard Sartin used to stress, don't put horses in the computer that you think can't win, and if you think a horse can win, don't use a line that won't let him.

One thing I watch out for are extreme paced races. BRIS has race shapes listed, and I am hesitent to use races where the race shapes are beyond +6 or -6. That is +/- 3/5s of a second. Steve Davidowitz once did a study that suggest that range was more realistic than Quirrin's +/- 1/5, and my own research when I was using HTR gave the same results.

If today's race has more than one horse likely to run extreme early, I will use those extreme lines.
Another thing I look for is riders. If the rider who last won or finished close on the horse, I may go backand use a line where he/she was on.

Of course, we have to take what the PPs give us. Sometimes we can't find ideal lines and have to use what there is. Or pass.

There are a lot of races every day, and there is another one coming up in 5 minutes.

Oh yeah, and the trifecta in that was Dave's video premise of "within 1 of the third ranked horse."
There were only 3 contenders, and they ran 1-2-3.

Ranch, looking at you Aqu5th example, the lone early, and favorite, was the best speed fig by a significent gap, but that number was his best ever and came almost 2 month ago. The rest of the field was a cluster, so as you suggested, when the early dosen't show, chaos can step in.

Going back over the data I used to set up my Ultimate Odds project, 90% of the winners were ranked 1-5 in Bris PP. There were 15% horses that paid $18.00 or more. Of those, 71% were ranked 5 or higher on PP, and of those fully 50% were ranked 1-2-3 in LP last race.

I would have thought early would be the common thread, but it appears your observation of a recent closing effort is worth following. I will be adding a step to my handicapping to look for horses from this group.

Great thread!

Interesting topic. Ranch pushes the creative boundries!
As to the topic of early style vs early figs, I have been testing a new (for me) early rating, simply the sum of the horse's QSP + the sum of the best two of last four BRIS E1 ratings. So far, it been very useful in seperating the early horses and identifying contentious early races. It's not a single line value so I thought it would out-perform.

Ranch, you mention the big race, and I agree that is positive, I have come up with a hierarcy of last race performance, that is my best case scenario.

1-The big win
2- A good race
3-Acceptable race (front half of the field, within 6 lrngths)
4-Excuse race, not good, but not a failure
5-A Failure race


=

If they shut off betting 2 minutes to post time, there would be chaos at Gulfstream, where they leave the gat 25 minute after[/i post time.

The turnback to a one turn race has been a profitable path for a lot horses, I think, because the two turns give front runners a break, while turn forces them to use more energy early. The cavet that the closer be ranked 1-2 late in the two turn race means it was earned in a negative situation and today will be facing early horses without that edge. Something I will keep in my list of evaluating horses.

The premise is interesting. I would think it would be useful in NYRA turf races, with so many courses and so many distances (and so many turf rail settings!). And Belmont dirt, with one turn route races.
I will definately check it out.

At my age, having a good day IS long term.

I was doing very well at Aqu up until the rains came, then the track just went bomkers, and now, we have a cuople weeks with all pacelines being suspect due to extreme biases. I stopped playing it altogether. For me, Parx and FG are far better tracks to play lately. NY can't seem to control it's track surfaces.

And here is the file for routes.

Sorry to be late, but I wanted to clean up the presentation.
What I did was graphically display the Bris Pace/Speed Chart using the 3 sample pars
they used to explain their pace figures. I did a regression on the three vpace figures as they related to the speed figure, and the results were they had 4 different scales that overlapped and added more
confusion than OJ left DNA.

I set up a chart to use to convert the pace figures to the speed figure scale. Just find the pace figure(s) and slide over to the SR coulmn to get the equivalent on the speed figure scale/
I converted the 3 par examples to the new scale to illustrate.

This peoceedure has a huge impact on calculating turn time if you use that factor in your play.
It also allows better compare sprint pacelines to routes.

The attached file is for sprints. I will post one for routes later.

Tom

Andy Serling does a good job keeping the bias/trends updated.
Another NYRA feature, since we are on the subject, id the Trackus charts.
For all NYRA turf races, they give the last 2 furlongs data no matter what the distance, so you
can directly compare the same closing efforts on the same exact part of the track