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Is BRIS a better Metric than adjusting Pacelines?
  • Tim Romero
    1
    Hi All,

    I am expanding my handicapping knowledge and just finished the Tom Brohamer book "Modern Pace Handicapping".

    In the book there is a lot of work done on establishing a $10K PAR which establishes the average call times of a race around the $10K claiming level and this is done across tracks and for sprints/routes and dirt/turf, also included is the DRF track variant range. The end result is a way to adjust a paceline for each horse for when they are shipping and when the DRF track variant is outside the normal range.

    The invention of the BRIS Pace Ratings numbers would seem to make the need for PARs obsolete, since the BRIS is "are fully adjusted for track variations, comparable across North American tracks". Is my thinking correct?
    Tim Romero Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    429
    The invention of the BRIS Pace Ratings numbers would seem to make the need for PARs obsolete, since the BRIS is "are fully adjusted for track variations, comparable across North American tracks". Is my thinking correct? — Tim Romero

    Respectfully, I would say that your thinking is very NOT CORRECT.

    I assume that you know I've been in the Par business for over 3 decades.

    I will further assume that you know BRIS has pars somewhere that are used to build those pace numbers.

    My question to you would be, "Why would you assume that BRIS' ratings would be better than anyone else's?"
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Tim Romero
    1
    My question to you would be, "Why would you assume that BRIS' ratings would be better than anyone else's?" — Dave Schwartz

    I never made such a statement - that one was better than the other. My question was they seem to be measuring the same factor
    Tim Romero Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    429
    ↪Tim Romero


    Then why would pars be obsolete?

    Or do you mean, "If I use BRIS data, why would I need to buy par times?"
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Tim Romero
    1
    Or do you mean, "If I use BRIS data, why would I need to buy par times?" — Dave Schwartz

    Yes, that is correct. I already have BRIS data and I can develop PAR times if I need to. The issue comes down to developing a test environment. If I choose to use PAR times, then I need to buy or develop the times in relation to the timeframe I am testing. So if I'm running data from 2025 then I need par times from 2024 and so forth for each timeframe change. Basically I would need a continuous pars database OR I could use the BRIS data that is updated as of that race date and attached to the data source. Just like you have used DRF Speed Ratings and then applied a track/distance/surface PARs offset to get to a universal speed rating.
    Tim Romero Options
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