Late Odds Changes

Dave Schwartz

Someone made a post on the PaceAdvantage board about last minute odds changes.

Pace Advantage thread here

I think it is worth discussing.

To be clear, the issue is NOT past posting.
It is the lack of real-time reporting.

When YOU AND I click the button on our wagers as the 1st horse enters the gate, OUR money will not show on the tote board for anywhere from 15 to 45 seconds, depending upon various conditions. Of course, we are not betting enough to tilt the tote board.

None of us like this but it is the nature of the parimutuel system, exacerbated by the fact that a handful of the largest bettors in the world (whales) use highly similar handicapping approaches.

Remember that 1 out of every 6.5 dollars wagered in N. America comes from just SIX betting pockets.

When they agree, the odds plummet.

The fact that they wager at the last minute - just like you and I - contributes to the odds shifts.

The fact that those big odds shifts are very often on the winners is a function of the whales being such good handicappers.

BTW, you know how there are days where favorites just win race after race?
Take some solace in the fact that when that happens the whales generally lose!

Late odds shifts help nobody make money, including them.

It's not like they are betting one horse per race.

Please chime in with your two cents.

Conley

There have been a few times when I had nice longshots like between 20-1 to 30-1 to win and see them get "late money" and the odds would drastically go down to like 15-1 or 10-1 which is not bad but would have appreciated a much better return/payout lol

Or even on the times I would be on a "logical favourite" at 2-1 5/2 or 3-1 at the most then it see go down to even money (1-1) 9/5 8/5 7/5 6/5 which again lowers the payout

Tony Kofalt

Little question that late odds changes can be very frustrating to us that wager. It's a very delicate issue for the industry as it pits 'perception' against valuable handle.
For us that wager, I've found that the most effective way to predict the finals odds is to utilize the 'will pays'. Take a moment each race and look at the will pays for P4's, P3's and DD's. If a horse is heavily bet in those pools expect that to be the case in the win pool, regardless of the odds a few minutes to post. While not a perfect solution I've found the results will give you very good idea of the 'off odds' in an upcoming race.

William Zayonce

Someone made a post on the PaceAdvantage board about last minute odds changes.

Dave Schwartz
While I'm with everyone one dislikes late odds drops , I'm also pleased when my 4/1 selection increases to 9/1 or when I've bet what I thought would be no worse than second favorite at 3/1 and get 9/2 . It goes both ways . I take the position that I can't control the odds so just accept what I get or pass.

RanchWest

For us that wager, I've found that the most effective way to predict the finals odds is to utilize the 'will pays' — Tony Kofalt

Good point, Tony. I think in many instances, it not only points to the off odds, but may actually drive the off odds from people tracking this info on computer.

Dave Schwartz

It goes both ways . I take the position that I can't control the odds so just accept what I get or pass. — William Zayonce

Alas, it doesn't go "both ways" very often.

We bet on what I call "Gate Odds" but get paid on "Winner Circle Odds".

If the winners odds went up even remotely close to how often they go down, then it would GO BOTH WAYS.

However, the winners' GATE ODDS actually GO DOWN 74% of the time!!!

Tony Kofalt

↪William Zayonce

I know this is a hot button issue for so many people. Not so much for me. I do understand the frustration of not getting the payout you expected due to late bets but you are correct that odds on other horses go up. Improvements in technology may display the odds changes sooner but won't change the outcome.

William Zayonce

Tony Kofalt

know this is a hot button issue for so many people. Not so much for me. I do understand the frustration of not getting the payout you expected due to late bets but you are correct that odds on other horses go up. Improvements in technology may display the odds changes sooner but won't change the outcome.

[/quote
I agree! This ranks up there with "take and breakage". It's annoying , but beyond our control. We can play with it or stop playing. I won't let it deter me from playing, and enjoying said play.

Dave Schwartz

↪Tony Kofalt

& @William Zayonce,

My position is that depending upon the tote board makes me crazy.

I've adopted the practice of betting into PROJECTED ODDS.

This works so well that I only use the tote board as a last minute check for HIGH ODDS horses that SHOULD BE LOW ODDS.

Coming before Christmas is a tool that will allow all of you to let go of your dependence on the tote board.
I really need to build a sticky thread called, "What I'm working on NOW & SOON."

William Zayonce

Dave Schwartz

I've adopted the practice of betting into PROJECTED ODDS.

This works so well that I only use the tote board as a last minute check for HIGH ODDS horses that SHOULD BE LOW ODDS.

I'm glad we share this view! Can't count the number of times that none of my contenders was in my acceptable odds range until 1 minute to post.! Some very nice scores were had

William Zayonce

Dave Schwartz

However, the winners' GATE ODDS actually GO DOWN 74% of the time!!!

Thanks for this interesting stat Dave! Im not so sure that the "Whales" were in action when I last played daily a decade ago.Since 2019 I've only played sporadically and selectively.Perhaps that's why I didn't recognize the pattern .

Dave Schwartz

Thanks for this interesting stat Dave! Im not so sure that the "Whales" were in action when I last played daily a decade ago.Since 2019 I've only played sporadically and selectively.Perhaps that's why I didn't recognize the pattern . — William Zayonce

They've been playing since around 2005, but their betting approaches all changed about 2014/15.

They used to feed the money in gradually, so as to not disturb things, but then changed to an "when the first horse loads."

Remember that $1.00 out of every $6.50 wagered in North America comes from SIX companies.

William Zayonce

Dave Schwartz

They've been playing since around 2005, but their betting approaches all changed about 2014/15

.
That would explain why I didn't notice them. My last daily play was January of 2011...I restarted as a casual player September of 2019 . Just this year decided to get back in with both feet.

William Zayonce

I wonder if these "whales'" have been investigated for money laundering. It seems an odd choice of investment for a legitimate company, particularly if its a publicly traded one.

Dave Schwartz

↪William Zayonce

Seriously?
One company wagered $300m and made $27m profit.

That's a +9% ROI.

But even more amazing is that they did it out of a $3m bankroll.

Thus, that is 9x on their money for the year.

They have 100 employees.

William Zayonce

Interesting!

William Zayonce

I wonder what their tax return looks like.

William Zayonce

Dave Schwartz.

Seriously?
One company wagered $300m and made $27m profit.

That's a +9% ROI.

But even more amazing is that they did it out of a $3m bankroll.

Thus, that is 9x on their money for the year.

They have 100 employees.

Are these companies whose sole endeavor is investing in horse racing wagering or do they also conduct other business?

William Zayonce

Please forgive me if Im getting tedious. My curiosity is piqued and I tend to delve deep to satisfy it.

William Zayonce

Perhaps we can learn something from their approach..

Dave Schwartz

↪William Zayonce

Nothing to forgive.
Sorry if my message was not worded properly.

The point is that these are viable business entities.
While they are small potatoes in the world of corporations, they are huge in our industry.

William Zayonce

Dave Schwartz.
I guess that I overlooked the "Private" part of " private companies" and consequently they must be "privately" funded.. In that light they must be viewed as dangerous competitors.Still wonder what sort of "deep pockets" are funding these 6 ventures.
...My suspicious nature showing.lol

Dave Schwartz

Minimum start up is typically $450,000 in infrastructure & development before bankroll.
Most such corporations never make their first bet because they can't build a winning system.

William Zayonce

So...someone already possessing such a winning system could conceivably syndicate it to generate startup and bankroll ...

William Zayonce

Would need some wealthy backers though.

Dave Schwartz

So...someone already possessing such a winning system could conceivably syndicate it to generate startup and bankroll ... — William Zayonce

This is a common misconception.
The whales are not "syndicates."

A syndicate implies that a bunch of guys got together and decide upon picks or strategies. That is just not how they work.

The game they play is just too difficult for that type of operation.

These are businesses.
They start with a plan to figure it out, which takes experts. A "quant" (at $20-$30k per month) is usually at the core, coders to write software, analysts to test & track the output of the current system(s) in play, as well as the actual bet makers - usually called "analysts" as well.

Nobody makes any kind of decision. The software must do it all.

In order to play at that level (i.e. bet $100m per year minimum) one has to play

play 7 days a week
80% of tracks on each day
80% of races at each track
80% of the pools in those races

When I was involved with a small (by comparison) operation, it took 15 people (minimum) on the schedule to fill all the shifts. Small days you can get by with 2 (one race analyst and one supervisor) but on weekends it takes a minimum of 4 and a supervisor to make it work.

In other words, it is not a trivial operation.

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