The. Quirin definition...witin 2 lengths in a sprint or 3 lengths in a route. Steven

Or 3rd

So we're saying a good race is:

Within 90 days
and
(Horse was first
or
Horse finished second
or
Horse finished third
or
Horse was within 2 in a sprint
or
Horse was within 3 in a route)

Am I right on the finished second/third?

How would you define a good race? — Steven

Standard definition is from Dr. William Quirin (found in Percentages & Probabilities.)

Steven, you need not limit it to 90 days. Just dont go back beyond a 90 day layoff

I think this should cover it.

It's the last column

GR%_RANK_49

I think this should cover it.
Attachment
GPX2021_DirtSprint(11K)
Steven

Steven.
Thank-you for your kind efforts!
But I'm unable to open your attachment on my device ( PDF only). Can you suggest an app that will work for me?

Give me a bit. I’ll print it in pdf.

PDF

Steven.
This is an interesting and eye opening study. Just a bit disappointed with the results.Thought there would be an edge there. Thank-you!
Just wondering...does your software allow for isolating occasions where just one entry has a certain attribute?

Most everything I do is hard coded into the software (a result of self training). I would need to know what specifically you're looking for before I could really give you an answer.

And FYI for dirt routes, turf sprint & routes.
CATEGORIES:
#1's
#2's
#3's
TOTAL
$WON
$BET
$NET
ROI
# WINS
WIN%


DIRT ROUTES
GR%_RANK_49
111
78
83
1172
$202.80
$222.00
-$19.20
1.91
22
19.8%

TURF SPRINTS
GR%_RANK_49
47
43
40
541
$82.60
$94.00
-$11.40
1.88
10
21.3%

TURF ROUTES
GR%_RANK_49
62
54
38
688
$58.40
$124.00
-$65.60
1.47
11
17.7%

Essentially, I'm looking to test factors that apply to 1 and only 1 entrant . For example; the only 1 to reach the 5pt threshold in QES pts, or perhaps being the only 1 to have 2 wins in last 10 starts .The list is long. My idea is to find which "unique" attributes can complement each other to boost a 20% hit rate to 30+%

Two examples of simple "angles" that I like are these; "1 : the only entrant to win its last race ( combined with a few "complemenary " factors) ."2 : the only entrant to finish 2nd or "good" race ( again with qualifications).

Two examples of simple "angles" that I like are these; "1 : the only entrant to win its last race ( combined with a few "complemenary " factors) ."2 : the only entrant to finish 2nd or "good" race ( again with qualifications). — William Zayonce

Interesting approach to spot plays.
I have a project on my agenda for the spring which is called Subset Handicapping.

It begins with a subset of horses and asks the question "What makes ________ horses win?"

My concern about your current approach is that these angles you mention above are just not as exciting as you'd think.

I know you have tacked on some other conditions to your angle but the bottom line is that the difference between "Good Race Last = YES" and "Good Race Last = NO" is really negligible. Sure, the IV & hit rate is higher but it does almost nothing for the $net ($2 is break even) because the gains are destroyed by the huge downward tick in the average odds .

(from P&P, 2012)

Interesting approach to spot plays.
I have a project on my agenda for the spring which is called Subset Handicapping.

It begins with a subset of horses and asks the question "What makes ________ horses win?"
Dave Schwartz
These are precisely the sorts of insights and stats that I'd like to see . While a "naked" angle might not be productive in isolation but shows a 20% or better win% , results might improve with the addition of "complementary" factors.

William, your angles would involve much more programming and work than I want to take on right now.

Be aware that this will be a PRODUCT - as opposed to something free.

Be aware that this will be a PRODUCT - as opposed to something free.
5mReplyOptions1

.Of course! Wouldn't expect you to do all the heavy lifting without compensation! Im certain that it'll be worth the investment.

Steven.

• William, your angles would involve much more programming and work than I want to take on right now.
  Thanks for your help so far Steven! I understand that it's a large and cumbersome project.