Do you define "turn time" as the 4f time in a 6 furlong race or is it the actual fractional time from 1st call to 2nd call?

One factor is that some horses don't do well next to the rail, especially lightly raced horses. When it comes to turn time, I get concerned about horses too slow at the turn time. I have to have some reason to believe those horses can effectively close a lot of ground.

I have been looking at the actual internal fraction around the turn.

I have been looking at the actual internal fraction around the turn. — Jim Chiamardas

That's how I see it as well.
Just wanted to make sure I understood.

Jim, I've considered playing around with turn times before but it seems to me the reported 2F, 4F, etc splits available fall into different spots on the track for different tracks. What are you using to figure the actual turn time around the turn?

Also, My 2 cents on the concept of inside runners vs outside runners in the turn is a much more difficult question to assess. Many have done the math to simply state that every path out from the rail a horse is, it costs them one length. However, I don't think ground loss can be this easily assumed to be a disadvantage.

From an energy distribution view, the inside horse is having to negotiate more centrifugal inertia while also sometimes on a flatter portion of the track while the outside horse may be on a more banked surface without fighting those centrifugal forces of circling a tighter turn. In the end, I think ground loss vs centrifugal forces can often cancel each other out in a general sense and it really just comes down to a case by case basis on the actual horse, track configuration, pace scenario, etc.

I tend to agree with your assessment on positions from the rail out, although a track like Charlestown has tight turns and a short stretch run after the final turn which is way different than a Belmont. In a 6F race you can calculate the second call fraction by subtracting the first call and adjusting accordingly for lengths behind. Or you can cheat a bit by using Bris E2 pace numbers. Using those numbers and a horses finishing position/lengths behind, you can guesstimate if a horse is improving or declining. Those are my thoughts anyways.

Regarding ground loss I see both sides of this debate. But I do utilize Thorograph sheets at times and ground loss is a big component there. I've found the Thorograph performance figs to be the MOST accurate figs I've ever used and their presentation is very comfortable to my eye. So if I had to pick a side in the ground loss debate I'd have to conclude that ground loss does matter

The horses I have seen have all been lousy at geometry and such.

I think it has to do with class, distribution of energy, proximity to the rail, position relative to the other horses vying for the lead, the composition of the track surface and such. The distance traveled is a fairly minor aspect in my opinion.

Ok, I got you...so it's a little bit of manual estimation to get your actual turn times. That makes sense, was just making sure there wasn't some awesome set of turn data out there I wasn't aware of.

Ok, I got you...so it's a little bit of manual estimation to get your actual turn times. That makes sense, was just making sure there wasn't some awesome set of turn data out there I wasn't aware of. — Dustin Korth

Well, there is in our software.

We see all the numbers as having 4 distinct fractions and the ratings attached to them.

I'm currently working on Percentages & Probabilities 2022, which will be available before Christmas. After that, my next publication will contain some high-level pace analysis materials that addresses factors and their potential value as a predictor.

Can't overdue those stats from a global perspective, though, because they are likely to change across track-surface-distance-pace shape.

Dave Schwartz
Should I wait a little longer for the 2022 version of P&P ?

Should I wait a little longer for the 2022 version of P&P ? — William Zayonce

If you buy it now, I'll just give you a full credit towards the new one when it is available.

Very good! It'll still be about the 25th of this month.