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The Ultimate Odds Line
  • Tom
    89
    This is a method I came with as a tool for my handicapping based on the results my "Figuring Out What's Winning" at several tracks and a need to come up with some lower-level odds line for recreational level play. It is a paper and paper type method that uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs, hence the name.

    The whole thing is outlined in the PDF along with a couple of examples from this past weekend at Aqueduct, not to red board, but to illustrate a couple key situations I have found to be potentially profitable. I assure, I find more races that offer no bets than those that do, but it is, by design, quick and easy enough that I can handicap any bet several tracks in real every afternoon.

    Tom
    Any comments, suggestions are welcome.
    Attachment
    Ultimate Odds Line (385K)
    Tom Options
  • William Zayonce
    41
    It looks like an intriguing and simple method of producing spot plays .
    William Zayonce Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    361
    ↪Tom


    This is really good work!

    Do you recall how Huey Mahl did this thing he called The Length Variant? This connects me to the next idea, and all of it connects back to YOUR WORK.

    When I was doing work for some AUS a couple of years ago, I found some of their ideas quite intriguing. One was the idea of expressing "How They Ran" in terms of Odds & Beaten Lengths.

    Thus, if you look at each odds range, and come up with the average lengths behind, one could say that a horse who ran (say) 2.5 lengths behind ran like he was (say) 5/2.

    Your work is similar but expressed as a win percentage (I assume).

    This is a really goods idea.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Tom
    89
    I remember Length Variant. That was a great product.
    Tom Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    Great work, Tom. I'd just point out that this could be implemented with any 5 factors. Using the Fibonacci scale, your equivalent odds line could be used. I suggest research based on modeling for anyone interested in pursuing such a direction. While you've already invented the wheel, maybe some might not want to use the BRIS Ultimate, for whatever reason.
    RanchWest Options
  • Steven
    113
    Hey Tom. Is the Early Pace figure the E1 or the E2 figure?
    Steven Options
  • Tom
    89
    E1 in routes, E2 in sprints
    Tom Options
  • Steven
    113
    Thanks!
    Steven Options
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