I've done quite a bit of work on negative spots against low-odds horses, with quite a bit of success.

In this age - where the whales dominate our game - these NegSpots have become antithetical in nature.

Example: (Weekdays only) top jockey + top trainer + low odds = play against.

But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race.

But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, I have one going right now that has hit 38.9% and still losing 17%. And, that wasn't even an intentional play against! I look forward to getting into the intentional ones!

Losing 17% is just not strong enough.

The bidding starts at -35%.
But it won't be a single factor that produces that. It would be a combination of factors.

Yes, my point was that I got half-way there unintentionally. lol

I was also pointing out that hitting a high percentage does not ensure a profit.

I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.

I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar. — RanchWest

Ironically, THAT is what I generally look for in a play-against horse: the overwhelmingly obvious.

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour?

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.

Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

Yes, that is one of the tools.
We also have one called the OBJECT MASTER that allows you to turn on as many as 300 factors and optimize and object using a pretty cool approach.

Imagine 300^4 = 8.1 billion permutations - searching for the best object for (say) $net in the #1 rank. You can run something like that against 20,000 races in about 3 hours.

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data. — RanchWest

Actually, ultimately, it boils down to a few meaningful objects with the right application.

Still the game isn't easy.

I'd say that one of my typical spot plays would have about 7 factors.

Attached, here's a "bad favorite" checklist I picked up somewhere that may be of interest.

Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet.

That says more than many handicapping books!
Thanks for the list.

That was from Fraser Rawlinson.