While early is certainly usually overbet, that definitely is not always the case.

Check out today's (4/13/22) 7th at KEE. By nearly all of my metrics, #1, Buck Moon, was supposed to be on or near the lead. The horse went off at his morning line price of 12/1 and paid $26.80 $9.40 $7.20.

Of course, this is one of those cases where you still have to be a bit gutsy to pull down the big price. The last running line drew this comment... Antsy in the gate; speed to front; taken up stretch; walked off. If you could overlook that performance or lack thereof, you could have a winner that closed out a P3 that paid nearly 10 grand.