I appreciate the kind words @Dave Schwartz ... but I am horrible at picking the Kentucky Derby (my niche has always been the Preakness). After the great Smarty Jones, I had a drought until Always Dreaming finally won to break my slump. I spend no more time on the Kentucky Derby than I do any other race (granted for the years I was paid to write about it, I had to make it sound sexy which took a little extra time and effort). I will admit that one well placed superfecta one year I didn't have the winner on top in my selections yielded a handsome payout (and the IRS agreed).

To me, "the work begins" as I set out on my new chapter of having an online presence in this great sport we love. Helping to educate, have constructive discussions, and learn a thing or two along the way (and probably turn the last 30+ years of my handicapping upside down).

Good luck to all those who have a good feeling or the data gives you an edge... I can't wait to see the discussions and points made for (and against) the contenders!

Good luck all - we are all going to need it as those horses pinball coming out of the gate!

The one positive aspect to 'big race days' at the track is large betting pools. With a little creativity and a lot of luck sizeable P5's loom. The all stakes P5 at CD this year includes race 8 thru 12. I'm looking at 2 potential singles (Race 8 and 10) and then spread in the remaining races hoping for some value.
In race 8 I will try to beat Just One Time who is bred and still partially owned by some friends of mine. I've watched her train many times and she is the real deal. But she is a bit fractious near the gate and that may bite her one of these races. She will probably start with a blanket in the gate.
I'm getting good vibes from Bell's The One who figures to go post at odds of 4-1, making her a good single.
In race 10- Jackie's Warrior will prove difficult to catch. His main rivals will need help from someone to soften him up and that scenario does not look likely. Jackie is the probable favorite but we only need one decent winner to sweeten the ticket

I take the Pizzolla approach! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXMnDzQ4wEs&t=10s&ab_channel=PostTimeSolutions%2CInc.

Do they lower the takeout for the Derby? :lol: