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Tony Kofalt
397The 3rd race at Belmont on 5-29 posed an interesting betting decision that we all have to make every day. Do we focus on the logical contenders or do we look to take advantage of a possible overlay? What is best for the long term health of our betting bankroll? First let's look at the participants at least from my perspective. We could discuss countless aspects for each horse but I'm focusing only on the major factors as I see them.
To me the likely favorite and probable winner is the 5- Price Discipline. The Klaravich Stables paid $300k for this NY bred. His last serious work was on 5-16 when he posted a 2nd best of 16 5F work. He followed that up with a maintenance work 6 days later. The barn wins a high percentage with first time starters and he hooks a bunch that have never run to par. I expect him to be the horse to beat and the favorite.
From the inside, I'm supporting the chances of 15-1 Storied Fella. I prefer horses that show signs of improvement. Storied trailed the field in his debut over a muddy track in Md. In his 2nd lifetime start Storied showed signs of life while battling for the lead nearly 85% of the race over a FAST track. I'm drawn to that type of progress, especially at 44-1. There was only a 13 day rest period between those races. Freshened for 37 days he ships to NY and steps up from a near bottom level claimer to face NY bred MSW types. I expect he will sprint to the lead.
Lastly I lean to one of the two Abreu entrants as fringe contenders. However, I believe they will both go postward at 4-1 or less. I find myself leaning slightly against them.
I'm primarily a P4 and P5 player. So how do I proceed? I've got a solid favorite whom I expect will run a big race and probably win. I peg him with a 55% win probability. Then we look at the improving Storied Fella who I project has a 20% win chance at best. I like my chances using only those two, but how do I wager?
I decided to treat both contenders as A's but to press wagers on Storied Fella three times greater than the probable fav. So for each $1 wager including Price Discipline I will make a $3 wager including Storied Fella.
How would you approach this race? Who are your contenders and what type of wagers would you make?
Good luck -
Dave Schwartz
361To me the likely favorite and probable winner is the 5- Price Discipline. — Tony Kofalt
5- Price Discipline
Some Data...
Trainer Stats
zoom in...
1. His win% is not even the best in the field.
2. Only 18 wins over the past several years with horses like this one at NYRA.
3. His RTG ("Rating using 6-3-1) is a just OK but not best.
4. RATIO this means the RTG of this horse to all his starters.
1.08 is not something to get excited about.
(The excitement starts about 1.25.)
Ironically, a fav with a weaker-than-expected trainer is actually a GOOD SIGN.
After all, how does such a horse become a favorite? Certainly not because of the trainer.
His weak spot is, of course, his lack of Early Speed.
But when we look at his Trainer Stats at Early Speed Factors...
... We find his numbers are ALL good.
And his $2.86 $Net glows in the dark.
When we look at his GO SIGNS...
(i.e. Ratios of 1.50 or higher.)
... we find quite a few things.
Let's put this in perspective and compare to the rest of the field.
The important things here are:
FACTORS (Purple)
This means that #6 has 13 factors (out of 147) that have Go Signs of 1.50+.
By comparison, #1 & #2 are higher.
FX% (Green)
This is - by far - the most important trainer stat when it comes to low-odds horses.
It is nothing but the 1st 2 columns multiplied together:
Win% x Factors
19% x 13 = 2.47, rounded down = 2.
BTW, the win% uses the IVs from the horses for each trainer who have go signs.
CONTROL FACTORS are...
... things the trainer has control over.
Better to look at the field in context.
Most important here is RATIO.
Since High ratios = Go Signs, we're looking for trainers who have found a race that FITS THEIR STYLE.
Nobody in this field is more than average.
TRAINER CHARACTER
Not a comment about whether or not you should lend him money. LOL
Actually these 21 factors are about the kind of horses, races, and situations he is good with.
For example, this is very important with young horses. Some trainers are amazing with 2-year old fillies but not so good with colts at that age.
RTG & Ratio are what drive this.
Look at "Adj ML" in the 5/2 range. "47" is a good number.
But I'd prefer the 5,000-foot level.
Here's the race:
I'll continue in the next reply because there might be a limit on number of pics in a post. -
Dave Schwartz
361PERFORMANCE RATINGS
This is how each starting RANKS in 54 different factors.
Examples are:
- ES Points
- Class of Last Race
- Avg Competitive Level
- Works in last 8,14,30,45 days.
- Speed Ratings in 13 different ways.
(Doubt that you've ever seen a report like this from any other source.)
If you are a believer in Workouts...
... checkout his $nets.
BTW, the most important Workout Factor is Best Workout in the last 45 days.
Of course, that is across all races, for all trainers.
Trainers have their own approach. -
Dave Schwartz
361I could go on like that forever, but the truth is that all of that is just too much work for me.
So, I'll just use my objects.
aML 1st Tier
(Who SHOULD be the Low-Odds Horses?)
Just #6 - Two for Charging.
He figures to be very well-bet.
Does he Have Early Speed?
He does not.
BTW, my system for using this object tells me that the ultimate winner will likely challenge for the lead at the 2nd call.
Along with my other conditions for determining how to handle this horse, I have decided that:
6 Two for Charging is BALO - Bet Against Low Odds.
Because I have a BALO who projects to be VERY LOW ODDS and the field is 7 or more, the race is CHAOTIC.
I would NORMALLY do no further handicapping and bet 1,2,4,7.
(The 4 & 7 will be difficult to handicap to the top tier.)
Were I forced to pick contenders in this race, I'd have 2,3,1.
But we have a problem...
The FTS, # 5 Price Discipline.
He aMLs at odds of 2.81. (And that might be high.)
How do we compare a FTS with the others fairly?
FTS Handicap Object.
The use is really quite simple and is comprised of a single question.
"Does any FTS have a Pct within 1 point of the 2nd highest contender?"
(Contenders are marked in yellow.)
Since the 2nd-highest contender has a pct of 4, any FTS with 3 or more pct should be considered a contender. Therefore, #5 qualifies.
So, we wind up with this:
And gets bet like this:
FOR CLARITY...
My approach to this race would be to bet CHAOS.
However, because of the FTS, I have no idea how to play because I skip such races.
My gut feeling would be 2 & 5 as shown above.
Exactas would be:
2-5 (box)
(2-5) / (6) (one way)
The safe way for me to play this race is to take a stand against the favorite and #3.
Exactas would be:
(1-2-4-5-7) / 6 (one way) -
Tom
89My contenders are 1,6,3.
1 has two nice angles, Pandy's pace angle, ran against by far the best pace last race, and top notch rider accepting the mount from a lesser trainer.
6 has next best pace, with good turn time rather than E1, should have first run at the 1 and be well ahead of the rest.
3 Horse has more excusable races than usable races, good "back early speed" and a good trainer move, if 4-1, I will bet 1W3P
Overall, 1,3,6 box
Win bets on 6 if 5-2 or better. -
RanchWest
503My odds line: 6,2,3
#5 is a firster with an impressive work tab for Chad Brown.
Early, I look for 2,3,7,1 to compete for the front end.
I look for the race to be won up the stretch, but with my only elimination there being #1.
I wouldn't bet this race with your money, but...
i will pick #5 if he'll lay a little off the pace and wait for the horses to come back to him.
For a horizontal I would take 3,4,5. -
RanchWest
503My approach to this race would be to bet CHAOS. — Dave Schwartz
It was chaos, but with a solid horse in place to take advantage. -
Dave Schwartz
361It was chaos, but with a solid horse in place to take advantage. — RanchWest
Who won? -
RanchWest
503BTW, with the scratch, can't have CHAOS in a 6-horse field. — Dave Schwartz
The running of the race said chaos. 4 horses battling on the front end, the 5th place horse blew by them like they were in slowmo. The 4th quarter went faster than the 3rd. -
Tony Kofalt
397Thanks to all for your input. It's fascinating to me watch someone's analysis. Always seem to learn something. I apologize for the scratch. Dave your use of HSH is top notch! You are definitely one of the most prepared players I know.
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Dave Schwartz
361
Apologize for the scratch?
No need for that.
All that trainer analysis is too much work for me, but the tools are their.
Of course I could simply turn those columns into factors and use the factors in objects.
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