Tony Kofalt

Although maiden races are not my forte, I took a look at these. I found no reason to disagree with your strategy in race 1. Any of these could win. In race 4 ,I like your reasoning in taking the improving "Inkblot". It won't take much more improvement to outfoot the logical favorite Just a Nyquist. I did, however, give the inside horse, Valentia Island ,a long hard look ,mostly due to the strong connections and rider. She had an acceptable debut while staying close to the leaders in her debut, then a 5 month layoff . She came back in a sprint with a bit of a troubled trip. Now, after a shorter layoff and 5 works in the interim ,I have to think Castellano will have her close to today's pace, if not setting it. Personally, I'd have both "Inkblot" and "Valentia Island" as strong contenders on top with "Just a Nyquist" in close pusuit.

Bill- I like your thoughts on Valentinia Island. I placed her 3rd on my list behind Inkblot and Just A Nyquist. Feels like we see this race the same way. Good luck !!!

Race 1: My automated line has 6-1-3-2-4-5 and I think that is a good line. On paper, the 6 gets the nod over the 1. I rank the firsters fairly close. The problem in wagering is that if the 6 fails, the 1 could run a good race. But if the 6 runs well, then I toss the 1 and go with 2 and 3 as my alternates. I'm inclined to lean toward the 6 returning well.

Race 4: If they're on turf, my automated line has 4-5-8-11-7. Tough to get a complete fix without knowing the scratches. For the matchups based on BRIS Prime, I've got 1-4-11-13-7-5. I like those Prime rankings. I'll pick 1-4-11 with a longshot on the 9 based on her ability to close. Valencia Island went at auction for 200K and in her 3rd start she's offered up for 40k... concerning. I don't see a lot in the 6, but Clement is good with firsters.

Thanks for the feedback thus far. I love trying these pieces of the puzzle.

Tony, I’ll wade in with the following comments…

Bel1) In my opinion, #6 looks like a clear winner and has a minimum 50% chance of winning this race…most likely will go off at 3/5 or less. However, they’re all basically “unknowns” and much like your opinion, I would like to try and beat the favorite (especially in these types of lightly raced, state bred races)…but, I would still use the #6 as an “A” along with two others… My initial preference would be the two longest prices on the board… Or, if one of the first timers was being bet at or below their morning line, I might consider… Regardless, I would definitely play against (not use) the #1 who figures to be the likely second choice!
An interesting trainer tidbit = Schosberg in the last 365 days is 4 for 8 with second time starters… #5 was well bet in her debut and has a bit of an excuse in her first attempt… With a ML of 12/1, I would most likely be using her!
Anyway, I would wait for a look at the tote board and most likely I’m using three A’s = #6, #5 and a last- minute decision on one of the first timers….

Bel4 / Turf Only) Sorry, I really can’t make a case for the #2… If she was turning back to a turf sprint off her last effort, I would wholeheartedly support your opinion! I just don’t see her turning the tables on the #4 who figures to improve in her second start for new trainer Atras… Anyway, I’ll certainly be rooting for you and your valiant strategy to single #2!
If I were playing, I would probably look first to all the MSW droppers as potential “A’s”… #1, #7, #8, #11 and #13 with a first preference = #8... For me, the #4 and #6 would be "C's" at best.

Tony, best of luck!

Also,
When playing horizontals, it’s important to remember the math…. Assuming, Tony is playing the early pick5 at Belmont and has found a single that should be a big price (#2 in race 4)…. Let’s assume Tony feels his “single” has a 25% chance of success and in the other four legs Tony feels he has an 80% chance to score.

On a “caveman ticket”, this means .8 x .8 x .8 x .25 x .8 = .1024

So, Tony has a 10% chance to hit this ticket or a 9/1 chance…. If he’s correct with his probability estimates and even though it’s hard to know exactly what the pick5 payout might be, he definitely has value at 9/1!

But, if his actual probability is .5 x .5 x .5 x .15 x .5 = .0094, he has a 1% or 99/1 chance of hitting his ticket….

Most of us know this, but just wanted to share a friendly reminder on how hard it is to hit the pick5! Most importantly, and even though it’s a best guess, it’s valuable to assign probabilities to each leg and make a forecast for success.

Not sure why I feel the need to share this; but, oh well....

Interesting race. Todd is listed as 24% 90 days or more, but EB shows him only 9% 180 days or over.
The 1 horse was recently scratched from a maiden claimer and the FTS are all negative to my guidelines, but the 4 is close, and has an interesting WO line, nothing for 6 weeks from mid march until early may, then a bullet wo and steady works since then. The 5 is definitely a contender, so I would use 4,5,6 in Race 1.

BEL R1 - #6/3/1
BEL R4 - #11/4/2/1

R4 I would make 4 an A, 1 a B, and 2,7 as Cs.
I really like the move with the 1, speed fade in MSW, dropping into MC with a bullet a few days ago, and a race in a sprint with "Eric the Anchor" aboard to darken his form.

In R4, scratch #8, #12, #13. Twinspires is still showing 14 and 15 in, but they are MTO and turf is showing Firm.

R1 ran 6-2, with 6 at 1-5.

R2 was interesting. The longest morning line horse went off as the favorite and won. Looked to run well up the stretch and didn't disappoint.

R3, at 12 MTP, the 2 is the favorite. Huh? I like 5-4-1.

I struck out on R3. 2-5.

Tony, that was a bad beat! The #2 ran great and you made a great pick! Great handicapping!

R4: The Clement firster got it paying $17 to win.

Lots of possibles in R5. I'll say 4-5-6-8. 8 seems low priced at 3/5.

Sheesh, I can't pick my nose today.

I'll give it another try. R6: 2-1-5-3

R6; my 4th choice won, should've been stronger in my opinion on that one. No horses are closing any ground.

R7: 4-5-6-1A

They lulled me into the front end mindset and the 2 comes from off the pace, a horse that figured, paid $41.40.

R8: 7-10-3-9

Made up for the earlier trash. 10-7, 10 at 24-1. Exacta paid 117.00

R9: 10 8 9 7

No bueno, 3rd, 4th and 5th.

One solid hit like that per day will keep you going. Nice score!

One solid hit like that per day will keep you going. Nice score! — William Zayonce

Just like golf.