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LESSON 6: SUCCESSFUL PLAYERS NEED TO HAVE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
___________________________________________________ — Dave Schwartz

I know some people will say, "That's too complicated," but the truth is you already subscribe to this on some level.

If you didn't you'd believe that a 4f dash for 2-year old maidens could be handicapped exactly the same way as the Kentucky Derby.
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Now that you get that you're already doing STRATEGY MODIFICATION based upon the race CONDITIONS, I want to introduce the idea that you want to do it based upon RACE SHAPE.
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WHAT IS RACE SHAPE?
If you ask most people what Race Shape means, they will describe something that has to do with the pace of the race; or how the race figures to be run.

Iin order to be truly competitive in the Whale Era, one must become expert at SEGMENTING RACES according to THEIR OWN CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE RACE WELL BEYOND THE PACE SHAPE.
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WHY IS THIS SO IMPORTANT?
Because what you are doing now is the way everybody does it.
Including the whales.

Like most players, the whales have adopted this strategy:

• Make a line for each horse
• Bet into the tote board.

So, if it's good for the whales, why not for you?
Because you are not that good.
Neither am I.

Besides, even if you were that good, without a component that predicts the final odds with a high degree of accuracy, when you are betting one gate odds, the line you're betting into is likely to be way off.
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The whales have such a component.
In fact, it might be the most important difference that they possess because it is so difficult to build.

It demands a ton of minute-by-minute tote data.

Ironically, the people who have that (dedicated tote watches) typically use ONLY that component and ignore any other form of handicapping.

I am not saying that the Whales are Tote Watchers, looking for betting "signals." I'm saying that they have enough data to predict how the betting patterns inside of (say) 5 minutes will correlate to final odds.
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If everything you do is based upon the solid handicapping of yesteryear, you are practicing a strategy I call, "Push the winners to the top."

Same as the whales.

No wonder the end result is NOT GOOD.
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LESSON 7: DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT DOES NOT HAVE TO MEAN SHARPER HANDICAPPING. SOMETIMES IT MEANS DOING FAR LESS HANDICAPPING.
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