I continue to think that %Median is a very important figure. I see a lot of longshots that figure to like races that match their best energy... some of them don't seem to have much else going for them.

Ranch, I agree that when a pace falls apart, the horses to look for are the ones running late.
Normal factors won't always get it. When I use Timeform, the first thing I look for is the
Pace Projector suggesting a hot, contested pace and then look for the best LP horses,
particularly ones that show apparently dull recent races, ie, not hot paces.
've caught a lot of very nice prices that way.

Bris has race shapes in their PPs, but I find them to be ridiculous in many races.

I have several patterns of when the pace falls apart.

1) Nearly all of the horses have low %Median as their typical pattern.
2) Giles Speed Points is zero.
3) Giles Speed Points is very high, like above 6.

Now, I have taken the median %Median of each horse and then the median of all horses. The likely winners are usually near that race median, even if they show few other positive factors.

@RanchWest
I'm always pleased to see your interesting observations.

@RanchWest
Have you considered using "multi factor pattern matching" to test your idea that %median is a strong factor in finding winners in these "pace collapse" or "paceless" races?

No anecdotal evidence suggests it works very well except when there are legit heavy favorites.