• RanchWest
    503
    I continue to think that %Median is a very important figure. I see a lot of longshots that figure to like races that match their best energy... some of them don't seem to have much else going for them.
  • Tom
    89
    Ranch, I agree that when a pace falls apart, the horses to look for are the ones running late.
    Normal factors won't always get it. When I use Timeform, the first thing I look for is the
    Pace Projector suggesting a hot, contested pace and then look for the best LP horses,
    particularly ones that show apparently dull recent races, ie, not hot paces.
    've caught a lot of very nice prices that way.

    Bris has race shapes in their PPs, but I find them to be ridiculous in many races.
  • RanchWest
    503


    I have several patterns of when the pace falls apart.

    1) Nearly all of the horses have low %Median as their typical pattern.
    2) Giles Speed Points is zero.
    3) Giles Speed Points is very high, like above 6.

    Now, I have taken the median %Median of each horse and then the median of all horses. The likely winners are usually near that race median, even if they show few other positive factors.
  • William Zayonce
    41
    @RanchWest
    I'm always pleased to see your interesting observations.
  • William Zayonce
    41
    @RanchWest
    Have you considered using "multi factor pattern matching" to test your idea that %median is a strong factor in finding winners in these "pace collapse" or "paceless" races?
  • RanchWest
    503

    No anecdotal evidence suggests it works very well except when there are legit heavy favorites.
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