Good observations!! But yes I did get sucked in by this one. I ended up singling Pirate in a bad call by myself. I typically try to avoid horses going for 4 or 5 consecutive wins. One thing for sure in this business, you can't win them all.
The feedback this team provides is excellent and should help make us all better players.

On 1-29 I do 'like' a horse in race 5 at Aqu. In this race I can key my selection in both P5's. I expect Now Showing to run a much-improved race.
In her 11-20 debut all starters (excpet Now Showing) have already run back. 7 of the 8 starters improved their Beyers in the subsequent start with several improving significantly. Only the winner did not post an improved Beyer but finished 2nd in a $100k Stake race.
I realize.that there is a Pletcher debut horse as well as 2 horses from Chad Brown in this heat. Hopefully they will sweeten the potential return on Now Showing.
Good luck to all.

I'm guessing the #6, Liam's Champ, will be 3/5 which should push your horse in the 6/1 or higher range.... Terranova is great with second time starters so your going to be getting great value!

Tony, wishing you big balloons tomorrow!!!

Thanks Jack. Sometimes balloons deflate quickly. lol I was disappointed in the final odds on Now Showing @ 5-2. It was interesting that Liam's Champ and Chad's FTS (the winner) both worked on 4f on 1-22. I don't know if they worked in tandem but the FTS worked 3/5 quicker than Liam's Champ. I may have downplayed that fact in my analysis.

Tom, thanks again for your thorough explanation. I've followed your posts on this and other forums and it's clear that you have a lot to offer. I really appreciate your time. Here are my thoughts on your suggestions!!

Many E horses can run as EP horses if they need to. Be very cautious labeling one a need-t-lead.
Good observation. I will admit that speed duels do not always develop when I expect them to. This is something to keep in mind!

An EP horse drawn inside may be forced to send early.
I 100% buy into this statement. We can find examples of this at every track, every day!

An E horse drawn outside the other early speed may well sit off the pace.
Interesting observation, one supported regularily by Richard Migliore on America's Day At The Races. I really trust the Mig's analysis.

When 2 E horses are side by side,, re-examine the QSPs. An E4 may well show moe early speed than expected and challemge or even out-pace an E6 . QSPs, if limited to the lat 3 lines are as much form as speed. The E4 might well be an E7 or E8 when in good form. I use Dave's definition of an improving horse as good reason to look at back-speed.
I have to research this one a little more. I use a lot of Dave's processes in my handicapping and wagering but I haven't found his definition of an improving horse yet. But your point is well made.

Dave's New Pace idea for rating early is tedious by hand, but excellent in practice.
I'm going to have to 'brush the dust' off my copy of New Pace. I have to admit I got a little sidetracked when listening to it and never really evaluated it fairly. Thanks Tom

The Rs/Pos method by Jim Crammer iis excellent and structureenough to take out a lot of indecision.Much detailed iFREE nformation at HDW.
I am familiar with RS/POS as I used the ThoroManager product during a brief stint as a jockey agent. What I found interesting is that RS/POS used the fastest first quarter time. The raw time was used with no adjustment for track or variant. The results were surprising accurate. For some reason I have never put enough time into pace evaluation in the past.

If you use BRIS or have access to pace figuures, try adding the QSPs to the E1 or the E2 pace rating. I use B2L4 pace figs at E1.
I have no real experience with current BRIS products. I occasionally download a card and print it for a friend of mine, but I have not looked at their pace numbers. Maybe I'll download a card and look at the pace numbers. As PP's I prefer DRF Formulator. On a similar note, do you have any comments or experience with TimeFormUs or EquineEdge. Both products tout accurate pace numbers. CJ from TimeForm appears to be a stand up guy. I've heard him on many podcasts and he certainly does his homework.

If you play NYRA, use the Track Trends column for rail bias, very good information
I love and use track trends. I think I mentioned it in another post on this board. I supplement my own bias notes for NY with Andy's thoughts on track trends.

Tom, your feedback is much appreciated and I will provide updates as I progress. Thanks again

Jack, thanks for sharing you analysis sheets through the weekend. The chicken-scratch all over my printed PP's is not nearly as professional as your approach.

Dave, does the HDW download into HSH utilize Jim Cramers pace numbers? The same figures available in RS/POS? I'm still spending a lot of time seeing how I can improve the 'pace' portion of my handicapping. Thanks

It does.
Those are the best pace numbers I've ever seen and far better than what are generated using my own par times.

I know his formula (because he shared it with me), and could implement and improve it using my pars. But that would just not be cool.

So, I continue to utilize his numbers.

BTW, in dirt route races the best ever F1 top rank is slightly profitable ($2.02 $net).