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Paul Michael
0Hello Everyone, Hello Dave...
Dave, I know you have been following and have replied to 1 or 2 of my threads (AutumnLotus) over at the PaceAdvantage forums regarding my handicapping having quite successfully getting a field down to 3 optimal contenders, in which 70% (fluctuating at the end of any given 50 handicapped races +/- 10%) at least 1 of my 3 choices make it for the win, and not at all surprising to see 2 of the 3 Win / ITM (ITM in my case I count as 1st thru 4th being a Superfecta player).
Recently I've come around to reading about "The Monty Hall" enigma. Dave, I saw and read this web page where a Mr. Ray Wallin goes into his experiences with The Monty Hall enigma and has quoted You a few times:
https://pacemakestherace.com/using-monty-hall-to-handicap/
I was curious to know if there is any more intricate information specifically as it relates to singling out a lone contender from the 3 contenders I find myself scrutinizing over with no satisfactory, or clear and concise reason(s) for choosing 1 over the other and so on.
Much Appreciated, In Advance! Look forward to what may come of this!
Paul Michael -
Dave Schwartz
361
This has the potential to be a very worthwhile conversation, but it really needs to be an interactive conversation as opposed to a Dave Lecture.
Some Basic Questions to Start
1) Are you interested in applying the Monty Hall approach to your 3 contenders?
2) Do you want to HANDICAP your 3 contenders down to a single play?
3) Do you want to bet all 3 horses in some sort of Dutch? -
Jim Pommier
81I'm not a Dutch bettor, but I'm interested in the subject. For me it would be 2) and 3). Handicap my 3 contenders down to a single play and/or bet 2 or 3 horses in some sort of Dutch.
Another question-- when is betting 2 horses better than 3 in a Dutch wager or vice-versa? Is it the projected final odds of the contenders, my handicapping cannot separate the 2nd/3rd contenders or other factors? For example, I have 3 contenders. One I like over the other 2, but not as a single. But I can't separate the other 2. Should I even try to separate the other 2, and if yes, when? -
Jim Pommier
81Maybe an example will help. Today, GPX R8. Using BRIS early/middle pace I narrowed the contenders down to #1, #3, #4, and #10. #8 has an overwhelming Prime Power number but in my opinion is vulnerable. Breaks between races and now in for the tag. Favorite in last 7 with 6 2nds/3rds. Just the 1 win. Irad is off.
Next, I toss the #4 based on class and question the blinkers today. Leaves the #1, #3 and #10. I like the #1, so it's the #3 or #10. #10 has a tough post, but no real speed inside so should be okay. So, my decision is to Dutch these 3 rather than tossing either the #3 or #10. Let's see how it goes. -
Jim Pommier
81Finished #10/3/6. The Even money favorite #8 was 4th. Wagered $60.00 and returned $63.00. +$3.00. I wasn't able to bet the race live. The 15-1 #10 ended up going off at 5-1. I knew 15-1 wasn't reasonable, thought more like 8-1. The 6-1 #3 ended up going off at 14-1. Did not expect that. Would have had a better profit if my projected final odds were better. On the positive side I did throw out the Even money favorite and 2 of my contenders finished 1-2. But it's not always this easy.
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Dave Schwartz
361Finished #10/3/6. The Even money favorite #8 was 4th. Wagered $60.00 and returned $63.00. — Jim Pommier
Questions
1. How did you split the money?
2. Why did you do it that way? -
Jim Pommier
81I used a Dutching calculator that's on-line. There's several out there and they seem to work the same.
I was busy and couldn't be there for the race, so I estimated the final odds using the ML and my handicapping. ML #1: 4/1. #3: 6/1. #10 15/1. I estimated 3/1, 4/1 and 8/1. I thought these 3 horses would take money.
Wagered $60.00 total. $28, $21, $10 on the #1, #3 and #10. Turns out the #4 at ML 8/1 who I tossed took quite a bit of money and went off at 7/2. The #1 went off at 6/1, #3 at 14/1 and #10 at 5/1.
Not being there for the race cost me since I would have had more money on the #10. Or if my estimated projected final odds had been better would have helped. -
Dave Schwartz
361
Understand that I am not being critical here.
I'm on your side.
#1 $28 6.4 $23 #3 $21 14.20 $11 #10 $10 5.30 $26
So, you bet $10 on the winner and should have bet $26.
Do you see that Dutching from a poorly estimated tote doesn't work?
Consider that 74% of all winners are bet down from their GATE ODDS, while the losers go up.
It does NOT average out!
I believe that if you play a couple of days of races and track how you bet vs. how you should have bet and you will see that this is the norm. If you are constantly seeing your winners' odds going do and your loser's odds going up, then you know your betting strategy is not sustainable.
You cashed a ticket but squandered a chance to make big money and basically broke even instead of winning $100.
Consider Howard Sartin's old approach with 2-horse betting.
He advocated a 60-40% split, with 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the higher odds.
Now, consider the stat that I offered where I said that 74% of winners are bet down from their gate odds and the losers are bet up.
That's equivalent to saying, "I'm doing it backwards."
So what if you REVERSED it and played an ANTI-DUTCH?
WHAT?
How does that work?
Consider your original bet in the race: $60.
So, each horse gets the DIFFERENCE between $60 and his bet.
Let's pretend that's how we split the money.
Total = $121#1 $28 becomes $32 #3 $21 becomes $39 #10 $10 becomes $50
Use THOSE BETS to divide the money.
#1 $28 becomes $32 32 / 121 x 60 = $16 #3 $21 becomes $39 39 / 121 x 60 = $19 #10 $10 becomes $50 50 / 121 x 60 = $25
What do you think? -
Jim Pommier
81Interesting. So hypothetically, let's say for this race I was able to watch the race. 1-2 minutes before the gates open the odds are #1 at 5/1, #3 at 11/1 and #10 at 7/1. Closer to what I had originally estimated.
#1 $27 becomes $33 33 / 122 x 60 = $16
#3 $12 becomes $48 48 / 122 x 60 = $23
#10 $19 becomes $41 41 / 122 x 60 = $20
The amount wagered is less on the 5/1, but more on the 11/1 and 7/1 than my original Dutching numbers (hence Reversed). Still a profit if any of them wins.
Would 2 horses work like this? 7/5 and 5/1 and wager $40. I saw this on-line.
#1 1/1.4 x 100 = 71 71/91 x 40 = $31
#2 1/5 x 100 = 20 20/91 x 40 = $9 -
Dave Schwartz
361I think you need to get past expecting profit if any win.
If this race is a good example of the races you bet, and usually you're betting horses that go off at 5/1 and above... consider this table:
NM Races. 201-PubChWIN BETS Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC <5/1 13,869 3,745 27.0 $1.68 1.81 1.04 $6.20 2.12 1.99 Above 21,504 1,264 5.9 $1.43 0.43 0.90 $24.32 11.48 5.59 Total 35,373 5,009 14.2 $1.53 1.00 0.98
This represents a 5,000-race random sample from 2023 of all horses below 5/1.
(There were obviously 9 deadheats.)
Of the 5,000 races, 3,745 winners were under 5/1.
That's 74.9%, leaving you just 25.1% of races producing winners such as the one above.
NM Races. 201-PubCh+174-rPSR WIN BETS Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC <5/1 r 1-3 11,135 3,180 28.6 $1.66 1.90 1.04 $5.82 1.95 1.86 <5/1 above 2,734 565 20.7 $1.73 1.42 1.04 $8.35 3.11 2.53 Above r 1-3 4,653 413 8.9 $1.59 0.63 0.95 $17.86 7.70 4.38 Above above 16,851 851 5.1 $1.39 0.37 0.88 $27.46 13.18 5.92 Total 35,373 5,009 14.2 $1.53 1.00 0.98
Imagine that your horses are ALL one of the best 3 horses in the field. (Here I've used PSR as an indicator Like BRIS Prime Power.)
Above r 1-3 4,653 413 8.9 $1.59 0.63 0.95 $17.86 7.70 4.38
I question that you can consistently bet 3 horses per race, Dutch, and expect to make profit long term.
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