Randy Giles in his book Extreme Pace Handicapping says:

We don't want horses that have finished in the money 2 or 3 times.
We are looking for improving horses, not peaked horses.

I find myself getting burned by the horse that jumps up to win
that maybe I thought had a chance, but others seemed stronger.

I asked this question on a Saturday morning get-together in another
way. Are 1-1 horses at the top of their game and will they run again
today? How can I tell they have peaked and are going to decline?
Conversely, what characteristics does the improving horse have
that lead to a better-than-expected finish?

They're going up or they're going down. How do I recognize the
direction change?

Where should I be looking in deTerminator to beat the cycle more
regularly?