SELECTION BASED HANDICAPPING is...
handicapping & betting where the toteboard does not play a part.

By strategically taking a stand against some horses projected to be low odds, that we've determined to be big losers... we simply need to cash tickets among those that are left.
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From a Post on Pace Advantage titled [b]DET Video: NULLIFYING the TOTE BOARD![/b]


THERE ARE TWO VERY BASIC RULES
Rule 1: Anything that raises your hit rate lowers your price.

Rule 2: Anything that raises your price lowers your hit rate.

See how simple that really is?


BACK IN THE '80s...
Also known as The Good Old Days to most of us, the best handicappers in the game were far less sophisticated.

Back then, a GOOD HANDICAPPER had the expectation that being able to consistently pick 1 or 2 good horses in each race would have this somewhat ethereal thing called VALUE.

To be clear, VALUE and PRICE are not the same thing, but they ARE CLOSELY RELATED.


A few suppositions...
Supposition #1: Higher Ranks=Higher Hit Rate
This should be obvious.
If we rank those horses using any reasonably robust statistical method, the 1st rank will win more races than the 2nd, the 2nd will win more than the 3rd, the 3rd more than the 4th, etc.


Supposition #2: Higher Ranks=Lower Prices
This is also obvious.


Supposition #3: Higher Ranks=Higher Net Return
This is caused by what is known as the bias against low-odds horses, that cause higher odds horses to be drastically overbet relative to their actual chances.


INTRODUCING A STRATEGY
The strategy is to find SOMETHING that indicates one or more highly ranked horses are, in fact, bad bets long term.

deTERMINATOR and HSH users have been calling these "BALOs" for years. (Bet Against Low Odds horses.)

Imagine the impact of such a thing.

Imagine that you have a BALO in a 5-horse field, where that top horse, instead of losing the anticipated 6% or so, is actually going to lose (say) 20%.

What does that do for all the other horses in the field?

Now imagine that there are TWO-such horses.

In that situation, you could certainly bet YOUR top 2 with the expectation of long-term profit.


BUT GET THIS...
Our small research team, headed mostly by me an The Pony Player, have made some interesting discoveries.

Special Note: One does NOT need DET to use this concept but, of course, the AI will do it far better.

Some Rules to Understand
1. We divide the field into two groups:
L for LOW ODDS
H for HIGH ODDS

2. LOW ODDS are horses who SHOULD BE less than 2/1
(based upon how the public usually bets.)
Special emphasis on SHOULD BE.
Note that this is a highly aggressive line - excessively so.
It does not predict what the tote will be - because the public refuses to go that low.

Don't bother trying to look for what good that is. Instead, see it as just another metric to be used for comparison with something else.

3. Some "L-Horse" Stats
A) 71% of all races has exactly ONE L.
B) 27% of all races has exactly TWO Ls.
C) ~2% of all races NO Ls.
Please don't waste time telling me how that means it isn't an odds predictor. Wasn't meant to be.

4. ONE L RACES come in 2 flavors.
A) Small Losers --- 49 of those 71 horses lose about 0.5 to 2.5 cents per wagered dollar.
B) Large Losers --- the other 22 of those 71 horses lose 16 cents per wagered dollar.

5. TWO L RACES come in just 1 flavor.
A) Solid losers --- 22% per wagered dollar.

6. A Short Summary
A) 27% of races have TWO logical favs that will lose 22% EACH. (The 2-L races)
B) 22% of races have ONE fav who will lose 16%.
C) 49% of races have ONE fav who will lose less than 3%.
D) 2% of races have NO "known" fav to measure.

A WINNING STRATEGY
Looking at race types A thru D (above)...

A & B type races are very bettable.
They're also very beatable.
Loosely speaking, you handicap the rest of the field as if the L horses weren't in the race.
They will beat you often, but you CAN ACTUALLY be profitable.

IF YOU ARE A GOOD SELECTOR, you will win far more often than if you were trying to win with horses that pay $27.


C type Races come with a built-in hedge.
In those races, you split your bet with half on the small loser and the rest on whoever you think has the HIGHEST hit rate.

Remember, this represents 49% - basically HALF of ALL races.

Even though you lose a tiny amount, the other horse (or horses) that you bet should win enough to be profitable.