@Tony Kofalt
Looks like a tricky card at a track that I haven't seen much recently,however, I did find 3 on the card that might warrant a second look as having potential to outrun their odds
R2; #4 Prairie Fire
R5; #6 Vasariance
R7; #2 Easy to Bless

I do like your choice in the 4th .

Basic Truth in a general sense should improve on the drop. But his trainer is 0/10 on 2TS. And, I don't like his work tab... 31 day gap followed by a slow work. I think the price should be right on the 4 and the 7.

In Race 8, I like the 9, but likely the fave.

Thanks William! I do agree that there are some tricky races on this card. I did not handicap your selections on top BUT they will be on my tickets as B plays. My feeling is that 'open' races can pave the way to well paying horizontals.
I plan to single the 4th in both P5's. I'm betting that Basic Truth will find himself on the lead turning for home for the first time. 'Truth' may be forced to stalk the 7 early. Good luck if you watch Aqu!

Ranch, you continue to make logical and solid points! Tha's why I love this game. There are often many ways to project a race.
I can't disagree with your analysis. I tend to be more forgiving with horses on the bottom. I estimate that his win possibility is around 30%, meaning I expect he would lose this race 7 of 10 times. All things considered I still feel a value P5 is available.
In Race 8 I thought that maybe we could beat the most logical horses in the 8 and 9. I made them B's. I ended up with the 3 and 7 as A's with one unknown in the 5 horse. The 5's last race was in 2021 but it was a tough event. 5 next winners including 2 horses that went on to win restricted stakes. I decided to add her back in as an A.
Thanks so much for you input Ranch. I always read your posts closely and give them a lot of consideration.

In R8,I do like that your 3 and 7 are first for a tag. But I see a lot of potentials in that race. Guess I will stick with the chalk, the 9.

Good luck Ranch!!

Tony, since you have a strong opinion on R4 - #6 (Basic Truth), I say go for it! I agree that he will most likely be on the lead turning for home….

However, I’ve always had trouble getting the horses to do what I want in bottom of the barrel two-year old races (yes, I know they just turned three)…I think the #10 and the #6 will be the top two betting choices and the most likely winners of the race (respectively 2/1 (or less) and 5/2 – 3/1).

At first glance, I also like a prospective single in both Pick5 legs…the #4 (Gasoline) in R5. To me, he appears to have the most upside as a young, lightly raced and hopefully still improving gelding…he’s always well bet and this looks like a good spot to get his second win….

So, my ticket in the first Pick5 will be a caveman as follows: 1,2,4,5,7 / ALL* / 3,4,6 / 6, 10 / 4
*Note: Trying to create some value in leg 2 hoping someone can snap the #2 (I know, not likely!)

In the second Pick5, I’m trying to create value in the first leg as follows:
R4) A’s = 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 --- B’s = 6, 10
R5) A’s = 4
R6) A’s = 1,2
R7) A’s = 1 --- B’s = 7
R8) A’s = 2,5,8 --- B’s = 1,3,4,6,7 --- C’s = 9

Like you said, “there are many ways to project a race”!

Best of luck today!

Disregard the above as I was hoping for a “fast” track….

Tony, you got it! Way to go!

Very good call, Tony!

Now need Jack's #4 (Gasoline) in R5.

Gasoline did not disappoint. Impressive.

Wow! Tony - Jack Double.

R8, 466 day layoff horse beat me. Maker is 17% on long layoffs and almost 20% first for a tag.

Jack- Excellent call on Gasoline!!! Congrats

Yea as I mentioned in a previous post, I was fortunate enough to make the winner an A horse coming off that long rest. I just couldn't get by the strength of her last race

If I might ask, what gave you enough confidence in Basic Truth to single that one? Was it just the early strength with the class drop or were there other factors? I was not surprised he won, but I thought others might be worth including. Turned out I was wrong.

Hey Ranch, of course you can ask.
First let me say that singling a race in a P5 sequence is not unusual for me. I'm typically looking for a race where my top selection has a strong projected number compared to the field and a fair M/L. In this case I projected Basic Truth to win by 2+ lengths while improving about 9 lengths off his debut. The major factors I used were:

• Improved speed
• Class drop
• Sire average winning distance
• Positive jockey switch

I expect to lose more bets than I cash. While I don't enjoy losing bets that's simply reality. I employ some money management techniques and try to have confidence in my plan.
This was not an especially good day as the P5's returned less than I expected. But I trust that it will all work out in the end. Please feel free to ask if i didn't answer your question.

Ranch,
On Friday there is a similar horse in race 6 at Aqu. I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. He exits a pretty fast debut where the runnerup returned to win a $500k stake. In fact my raw projections give him a 4 lengths edge.

• Lone speed unless a first time starter shows speed.
• Smart class drop.
• Adds lasix
• Adds blinkers

There are a number of similarities to Basic Truth. He's an 'A' play, but probably not a single. The decision to single often comes down a gut feeling.

Thanks a lot, Tony! You are really doing your homework!

I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. — Tony Kofalt

That one looks good. The one that would concern me would be #8.

Poor break on East Coast Girl... was a good pick.

Yea- I thought she ran the best race today. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time.

. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time. — Tony Kofalt

For sure.