What about the Whales?

RanchWest

I think nearly all of us will agree that the Computer Assisted Wagering people (CAW, "Whales") are a force to be acknowledged and addressed. First, we know they do a lot of research. Second, we know any low odds horse has the potential to drop in odds later than we can react because the Whales have access to rapid, high speed transactions and their preference is to wager at the last minute..

So, what do we do to counter the Whales?

First, stop crying long enough to realize that about 60% of favorites lose, so long-term there are opportunities. And, sometimes a favorite is okay. The best wager I ever saw involved putting a 2/5 Easy Goer in the middle of a pick 3.

Next, understand that the structure for Whales is to wager almost every race. We have more freedom to be selective.

Another option is to enhance our recognition of BALO (bet against low odds) horses and learn a tolerance point for price horses. What signal is in our arsenal that would allow us to include a big odds horse in our wagers? i think this can often mean that we can include a few more horses in our bet against strategy.

What is your strategy to counter the Whales?

Dave Schwartz

As you can imagine, I've got a lot of opinions on this topic.

Rather than dominate the conversation (which can be my nature), you guys talk and I'll offer up whatever you feel is necessary.

There IS a way to win with the whales, but it's not Make a Line and Bet Into it.

RanchWest

Dave, I agree, especially on the low end.

My line is based on the "best" horse. I find it interesting that it will be a ballpark figure for the eventual odds, but it has nothing to do with a wagering decision. "Best" horses can have many flaws and lose a lot.

I might be slightly influenced if I have a horse at 8/1 and it is 35/1 on the board, but not a lot.

Jim Pommier

↪RanchWest

"Another option is to enhance our recognition of BALO (bet against low odds) horses and learn a tolerance point for price horses. What signal is in our arsenal that would allow us to include a big odds horse in our wagers?"
I guess my questions is ...... how do you do this? Are there specific factors you look for ...... and then toss the favorite or low odds horse(s)? I understand you may not be correct all of the time ...... but what "signals" do you look for that points to throw-out favorites or low odds horse(s)?

RanchWest

↪Jim Pommier

Of course there could be a lot of things.

One that comes to mind is horses leaving the maiden ranks and running against winners for the first time... they need numbers that suggest they can be competitive at the new level.

Another is venue changes. There are some tracks where it is unlikely for horses from certain other tracks to win.

If you study trainer changes and patterns a lot, you might find ripe situations.

If you study the condition book, you may recognize that a horse is tuning up for an upcoming race.

Anybody have some other suggestions?

Jim Pommier

Thanks ...... I like the idea of horses leaving the maiden ranks with a speed figure(s) which can be questioned at the new class level. Also, shippers ...... can look at that from both the track and the trainer perspective.

Dave Schwartz

Thanks ...... I like the idea of horses leaving the maiden ranks with a speed figure(s) which can be questioned at the new class level. Also, shippers ...... can look at that from both the track and the trainer perspective. — Jim Pommier

On the topic of maiden winners...

When I was selecting pacelines, I'd penalize a maiden winner 5 lengths until it finished 2nd or better (or within a neck of the winner) in a non-maiden event.

This really seemed to improve the results.

Dave Schwartz

PS: The theory is that the maiden winner could take quite a while to find the level in claiming (or NW Alw) where it could be competitive.

RanchWest

↪Dave Schwartz

I think it would not necessarily have to be a maiden winner. Some horses step outside the maiden ranks before breaking their maiden.

Dave Schwartz

I think it would not necessarily have to be a maiden winner. Some horses step outside the maiden ranks before breaking their maiden. — RanchWest

That's logical.

But Interestingly, those horses actually perform better than the maiden winners do.

RanchWest

This is why people who play BMW's (big money winners) can get burned. The horse wins the money at a lower class and then steps up and often is not competitive.

RanchWest

↪Dave Schwartz

Interesting. I would think the horse still needs to have indicators that it is ready to step outside the maiden ranks.

Dave Schwartz

Interesting. I would think the horse still needs to have indicators that it is ready to step outside the maiden ranks. — RanchWest

Not the same.
On is a choice and the other is forced.

RanchWest

Yes, the trainer is intentionally trying to skip a condition.

Tony Kofalt

Very interesting discussion and some I face nearly every day. In NY there are a lot of maiden races run. When I evaluate maiden races, I find that not all maiden winners can be treated the same. Winners of 2yo and 3yo races seem more likely to 'improve' while winners of maiden races for older maidens need to demonstrate they can handle moving up in class. To me this difference between maiden races can vary throughout the year. For example, 3yo's competing in 3yo&up races may not be as competitive in the spring as they might be later in the year.
Belmont opens this Thursday. There is a maiden carded as part of both P5's. One maiden race is for 2yo's and the other is for 3yo&up. I feel that we not only need to handicap these races differently but we need to exavluate the winners differently when they race next time.
I find this subject to be real neat and would be happy to discuss any NY examples that come up.

RanchWest

↪Tony Kofalt

I am still trying to fully wrap my head around these issues. Compared to other races, I tend to downgrade speed and upgrade class, form and connections. But there's a lot to consider.

What about the Whales?

Please register to see more

Categories

More Discussions