I don't do much handicapping of the Derby until after the post draw and data release. I'll try to put in my 2 cents later. I'm intrigued by your comment about one E7 after last year's rabbit meltdown.

Yes, would appreciate your 2 cents. One E7-- Verifying. One P7-- Practical Move. No "6's. The rest are all E/P, P and S-- and 5 points and less. If I recall correctly, you have your own Run Style and Points ratings. Would be interested in what you come up with. 2022-- 21.78, 45.36, 110.34 and 136.96-- (21.78, 23.58, 24.98, 26.62).
Also, to note: Angel of Empire, Two Phil's, Hit Show, Disarm and Skinner-- all with improving BRIS speed figures over their last 4 races. I think one or two of these can maybe improve one more time.

x

Note that Quick Grid had 6 E horses in 2022, whereas BRIS had only 1. The two early leaders were N/A horses that had run at Meydan. So, there were the foreign speed horses in addition to the E horses.

Okay, interesting. I didn't know that. Your Quick Grid was the more accurate indicator of an early fast pace that developed.

Well, Quick Grid didn't exist until early this year, but I have a lot of confidence in the Alternate Running Style and the Pressure figure, which is an indicator of the likely early speed. The screen shot is actually from the next version of Quick Grid using the BRIS file from the first Saturday of 2022.

Top 3 morning line odds
:5: Tapit Trice 5-1
:14: Angel of Empire 8-1
:15: Forte 3-1

Fair Odds (mine)
:5: Tapit Trice 6-1
:14: Angel of Empire 8-1
:15: Forte 2-1

I will post an update on the entire fields odds as well as have an analysis of my Top 4 picks this weekend
Those 3 above will probably change the odds but I still like Forte at 2-1 even at 3-1 is ok

Interesting Stat:

You have two races:
Race 1 has only one ES 78 horse.
Race 2 has two ES78 horses.

Which race is more likely to produce an actual LONE F at the 1st call?
(Meaning, which only one horse within 1 length at the 1st call.)

I'm thinking it's a trick question-- so Race 2. Guessing one of the ES78's presses the other initially out of the gate, so much so that the horse being pressed makes the lone lead at the 1st call. The one ES78 horse breaks and then waits for competition that isn't there, isn't really pressed, and never gets the lone lead.

Jim and Ranch- this is why I like discussion on this board, you guys really make me think. As I've stated before, even though I manage to beat out a living in this game I see pace evaluation a real weakness in my game. Several of you gave me some real good ideas about pace in a thread a few months ago. Tom made some great contributions there. I'm sorry to say that I'm still not comfortable with how I evaluate pace. When I string P5's together there are always 1 or 2 races pace makes me scratch my head. If any of you see any races in NY where you'd like to discuss pace just post. I'd really like to bounce ideas off each other.

The gotcha races are the paceless races. Instinct says the horse that can go to the front should win. In actuality, the horse that goes to the front and is not comfortable on the front end backs up. A deep closer comes up at monster odds. It doesn't happen a lot, but one of those could skyrocket your P5.

Can't dispute that Ranch! Don't know if you handicap NY often but it seems to me that riders seldom hook up in duels. It feels like I have difficulty identifying these situations. There is a fine line between winning and losing, and I try not to blur that line. I believe I can improve my bottom line with better pace handicapping but I hesitate not to change much.

I'm thinking it's a trick question-- so Race 2. Guessing one of the ES78's presses the other initially out of the gate, so much so that the horse being pressed makes the lone lead at the 1st call. The one ES78 horse breaks and then waits for competition that isn't there, isn't really pressed, and never gets the lone lead. — Jim Pommier

I asked the question because it is really germane to your original post.


Not a trick question.

• The issue is that the world knows there is only one front runner in the race.
• That world includes trainers and jockeys.
• At least 1 other horse will challenge for the lead because they all know that if he isn't challenged, he'll be gone.
• The problem is we don't know who.

Predictability

• The more front runners there are in the race, the more reliable the pace will be.
• The more reliable the pace will be the more reliable the handicapping will be.
• The more reliable the handicapping, the lower the likely odds on the winner.

The pace model in the Derby has always been 1st call.
It's also been like low 4 public choices.

But, based upon the PREDICTABILITY part of this post, I'd say there is potential for medium or even high prices.
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Remember that I am a guy who doesn't actually take any big race seriously.

Here are the horses which I have changed the running style:

Two Phil's P to E/P
Tapit Trice P to P/S
Kingsbarns E/P to P
Skinner S to P/S
Angel of Empire S to P/S
Raise Cain P to E/P
Rocket Can E/P to P
Lord Miles P to P/S

I haven't finalized my selections yet, but I'm looking at a few medium or even high-priced horses. Two Phil's and Confidence Games so far.

Good fortune to all of you.

Thanks Ranch. So two P's to E/P; and no E/P's to E's. Quite the conundrum.

None moved more than one level, so it could have been much worse. I've seen horses that changed from E to S or S to E.

Confidence Game and Two Phil's-- sticking with my first two choices. Oaks/Derby Doubles with #6 / #7 / #10 / #14. Like the #6 Botanical in the Oaks. Like Two Phil's-- tapeta to dirt. On or near the front, and breeding suggests she can get the distance. Oaks/Turf/Derby PK 3 with #6 / #8 / #9 / #10 in the Turf Classic. Like the #8 Santin in the Turf Classic-- 2nd off layoff. Also, keeping with the tapeta theme. Maybe wrong, but the last race looks like a setup for this race. Did not go to FG and stayed at TP to train and the one race. Returns to CD with Tyler. Going to my local OTB Saturday and will finalize my Derby exacta's and tri's then. Everyone have fun.

Skinner is out in the Derby, so the field is down to 19 now. All of the AE's are in.

Forte is scratched.

Does anyone have any idea why there have been so many scratches this year?

Two horses were reported to have a fever, Skinner and Practical Move. Joseph's horse, Lord Miles, was scratched after Joseph was suspended related to having two horses die on the track. Forte was reported to have a foot issue. Not sure about Continuar.