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Tom Atwater
11Hello Dave, Brian or whomever wants to chime in:
I have a few things I would like clarified. I post here (as opposed to having offline conversations) because I feel this might be of value to others.
These questions arise from the video
001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING
#1 What actually is "AI Line", and from what is it created?
10:15 of video: Dave says
A.
So I take this to mean, the AI line is not an estimate of the true probability of a horse winning the race.What it does not mean [referring to the example race where a horse is 0.65 AI Odds] is that this horse is worth 3/5 - that you would not bet this horse at 4-1 in the gate based on this alone - it is not that kind of line.
B. [11:00]
OK, I get that.Neither is it a prediction of what the [final] odds are going to be - it's too volatile
C. [11:08]What it is - it's what the odds on the horse should be - because the whales drive the betting, effectively it becomes the whales
I am not clear about what Dave means by this.
Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion?
#1A What data goes into deTerminator's calculation of the AI Line?
Assuming the whales are not giving Dave any of their own data, there must be some assumptions about what they are doing in the AI calculation?
PS. Dave, if I am not posting this in the right place, please let me know.
@Dave Schwartz @ponyplayer
[Edit: DS] Moved to deTERMINATOR Questions so the world could see it. -
Dave Schwartz
415Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion? — Tom Atwater
The AI Line is literally how the entire public should bet the horses based upon past history.
Imagine you have a horse who IS 1/5 on the tote board.
How did he get that way?
Most of the time, if you were to look at the key betting factors you would find that this horse was ranked 1st for just about everything.
In other words, he is likely the best horse in the race.
_____________
The roots of the AI Line trace back to a column in HSH IV Tables - The "BV" column - which stands for "Betting Value." Simply put, that is an IV-type representation of the expected percent of pool that should be wagered on each horse. -
Tom Atwater
11Thanks for your response, @Dave Schwartz
The AI Line is literally how the entire public should bet the horses based upon past history.
Ok.
I am guessing that what you are asking the AI to do, is to create an odds line based on all relevant historical data factors, that estimates what the final odds for be for this horse and race, on average.
It's not a prediction of what the actual odds will be, since that depends on what nuances the whales see in this race - what they see as the overlays based on their unique knowledge of the actual odds milliseconds before the tote closes.
That is, the AI Line is your AI's a priori best estimate of the final odds.
That sound right?
Tom -
Dave Schwartz
415“A priori” would be precisely correct, As it is , As it is somewhat Bayesian In nature.
(Sometime dictation drives me insane.) -
Dave Schwartz
415
There is no replay.
A big bug was discovered and, while the lesson was clear, it was dwarfed by the bug.
Took me 19 hours to find and solve that bug.
But in the end I was the victor.
We had a meeting tonight where a similar but better version of the lesson was presented.
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