• Tom Atwater
    1
    Hello Dave, Brian or whomever wants to chime in:

    I have a few things I would like clarified. I post here (as opposed to having offline conversations) because I feel this might be of value to others.

    These questions arise from the video
    001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING

    #1 What actually is "AI Line", and from what is it created?
    10:15 of video: Dave says
    A.
    What it does not mean [referring to the example race where a horse is 0.65 AI Odds] is that this horse is worth 3/5 - that you would not bet this horse at 4-1 in the gate based on this alone - it is not that kind of line.
    So I take this to mean, the AI line is not an estimate of the true probability of a horse winning the race.
    B. [11:00]
    Neither is it a prediction of what the [final] odds are going to be - it's too volatile
    OK, I get that.
    C. [11:08]
    What it is - it's what the odds on the horse should be - because the whales drive the betting, effectively it becomes the whales

    I am not clear about what Dave means by this.
    Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
    That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion?

    #1A What data goes into deTerminator's calculation of the AI Line?
    Assuming the whales are not giving Dave any of their own data, there must be some assumptions about what they are doing in the AI calculation?

    PS. Dave, if I am not posting this in the right place, please let me know.

    @Dave Schwartz @ponyplayer

    [Edit: DS] Moved to deTERMINATOR Questions so the world could see it.
  • Dave Schwartz
    333
    Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
    That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion?
    Tom Atwater

    The AI Line is literally how the entire public should bet the horses based upon past history.

    Imagine you have a horse who IS 1/5 on the tote board.
    How did he get that way?

    Most of the time, if you were to look at the key betting factors you would find that this horse was ranked 1st for just about everything.

    In other words, he is likely the best horse in the race.
    _____________
    The roots of the AI Line trace back to a column in HSH IV Tables - The "BV" column - which stands for "Betting Value." Simply put, that is an IV-type representation of the expected percent of pool that should be wagered on each horse.
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