Positioning vs Beaten Lengths

ponyplayer

Understanding Horse Positioning: More Crucial Than Distance Behind

When it comes to handicapping horse races, understanding the running styles of horses is paramount. Here's why positioning trumps beaten lengths:

Why Position Matters

Horses Pass Horses, Not Lengths: Betting on a race without considering the race's shape, the early pace, or the strategic positioning of horses is like trying to solve a puzzle blindfolded. Simply reviewing past performances without noting where each horse needs to be to win does not suffice.
Visualize the Race: Before the race even starts, you should be able to predict how it will unfold. This isn't just about numbers; it's about seeing where each horse likes to run from - the front, middle, or back of the pack.

Running Styles Defined

Early Runners: These horses aim to lead from the start. When they don't get to the front, their chances of winning diminish. Look for patterns where they lead at the first or second call of the race. For example, a horse like Nullarbor thrives when leading but falters when challenged for the lead.
Pressers: These horses start mid-pack and make moves towards the lead after the first call. They can pressure early leaders and are versatile, sometimes even winning from the front if the race pace allows. Huge Bigly exemplifies this style, gaining positions consistently from the first to second call.
Sustained Runners (Closers): They hang back, letting others tire out before making their move. Everland, for instance, is known for her late charges, coming from well behind to challenge for victory.

Pattern Recognition in Handicapping

Ignore Beaten Lengths: Instead of focusing on how far back a horse was, look at where they were positioned. Each style has telltale signs: early runners dominate at the front, pressers advance progressively, and closers make up ground late.
Race Shape: How the race develops largely depends on the early speed. Is there one horse likely to lead unchallenged, or will multiple horses vie for the lead, setting up a fast pace that favors closers?

Using Running Styles to Your Advantage

Select Contenders: By classifying each horse's style, you can predict the race's flow. If there's a lone speed horse, they might be tough to beat. Multiple early runners could mean a hot pace, setting the stage for pressers or closers.
Evaluate Fraction Times: For each style, understand the pace they can handle. Early runners set the pace, pressers need to make moves against these fractions, and closers depend on the race shape to launch their final bid.
Compare Within Styles: When multiple horses share a running style, compare their performances against similar race conditions to narrow down your picks.

Conclusion

Handicapping isn't just about numbers; it's about storytelling through positions. By understanding where each horse likes to be during a race, you're not just betting on luck but on a strategic insight into how the race might unfold. This approach enhances your betting decisions by focusing on the real dynamics of horse racing.

Thoughts???

Jim Pommier

Interesting subject. I read Giles book Extreme Pace Handicapping which talks about the Pace Picture and the Cast of Characters-- E, E/P, P, P/C and C. Picturing how the race will unfold based on the number of E's, E/P's, etc. in the race (and their Speed Points).
Personally I found it difficult to pick contenders. For example, races with no E and four E/P 6 and 5's. Who's going to get the lead? Also, I believe you need to consider Post Position (early speed outside of early speed) and any rail bias. Some races are very obvious and you feel like genius when you're right. But, there's so many different scenarios, I had a difficult time with it. Also, I believe that there is a lot of work involved in this handicapping process-- evaluating fractional times and when multiple horses share a running style, compare their performances against similar race conditions. Much to do.

Dave Schwartz

↪Jim Pommier

That was an interesting book.
The 5+ points count was a real stroke of smarts and it6 is deeply embedded in DET (as well as HSH).

I did not find the rest of the contender ideas to work well. I believe there are so factors in the field list that represent those.

ponyplayer

can you summarize Randy Giles handicapping book
information from 25 web pages
"Extreme Pace Handicapping: If You Doodle They Will Come" by Randy Giles focuses on the concept of pace handicapping in horse racing. Here's a summary based on available information:

Core Concept: Giles emphasizes that the best payoffs often come from races with extreme pace aberrations, not from typical or pedestrian-style races. He introduces the idea of "pace picture doodling," a simple yet effective method for understanding and predicting race outcomes based on pace scenarios.
Methodology: The book discusses how to identify and categorize horses into different pace profiles like "The Thief," "The Clever Thief," "The Loner," and "The Carpetbagger." These profiles help in understanding how horses might perform given specific pace conditions in a race.

Practical Tools: Giles provides techniques for quick analysis, including making small charts or "doodles" to organize and rank horses by their Quirin speed points and running styles. This method helps in visualizing potential pace scenarios and identifying horses likely to benefit from those scenarios.

Reception: Reviews on the book vary. Some users have found it insightful for understanding pace handicapping, appreciating its simplicity and effectiveness in practice. Others were less impressed, citing a desire for more detailed explanations or clearer presentation of the concepts. However, many reviewers acknowledge that the book has helped improve their handicapping skills, particularly in terms of identifying when to bet on or against favorites based on pace analysis.

Author's Background: Randy Giles has dedicated his handicapping career to pace analysis, developing formulas and software like the Velocity Generator to assess race pace dynamically. He has been involved in horse racing research for over 18 years, focusing on horse psychology and the physiological effects of pace velocity.

This summary reflects the key points from the book as described in various online reviews and descriptions.

from Pony: I found the book to be very insightful and
well worth the purchase price.

The concepts generated a lot of thought. Like Dave said,
I'm not so sure on the particulars of each of the styles presented.

Anyone able to articulate the 5+ count?

Jim Pommier

5+ count. I believe this refers to-- the number of early pace horses (E, E/P, P) with 5 or more Quirin speed points.
For example the Pace Pressure Gauge (PPG) is 31 x 1. The 31 represents the total of all E, E/P and P's with 5+ speed points. For example: there's an E8, E/P7, E/P6, E/P5, E/P4, P5 and P3. The 8+7+6+5+5 = 31. The "x 1" represents the one E horse.
When the PPG exceeds 21, the pace bias shifts slightly to a late pace bias. The opposite if it's under 21.
We use Running Style (RS) numbers versus letters like E and E/P:
7 & 8's - Frontrunners
5 & 6's - E/P's (sprints)
4 & 5 & 6's - E/P's (routes)
The total is represented in the bottom scroll line on My Handicap. You'll see something like _ES: (25) 8-6-6-5 or _ES: (18) 6-5-4-3. _ES: (25) - a slight late pace bias and _ES: (18) - a slight early pace bias.

Positioning vs Beaten Lengths

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