• Dave Schwartz
    373
    Today was my first day of testing my approach against January races.

    You may recall that I've spoken about how The Whales lose in December & January.

    Personally, I haven't made a bet from about Dec 15 to late in January in perhaps 20 years.

    Well, today I played Jan 24, 2024 and my horses never got calls.

    I mean, unnaturally so.

    Several years ago, one of our long-time HSH users (named Matt) kept playing the system I'd used the year before, even after it stopped working around Thanksgiving. I was shocked when he called me and said, "It came back to normal during the last week of January."

    My Theory
    I've long-attributed this to altered training patterns - especially from the big trainers.

    My theory is that from the week before Thanksgiving, until just after the football games around January 1st, the big trainers take time off to be with their families.

    The do this because they can.

    Sure, they still show up for the big race days, but their assistants are handling the day-to-day.

    Then, after New Year's Day, they get back to real work and it takes 3 weeks or so for things to return to normal.

    I've got no idea if this is true, but it is what I have surmised.
    ______________________________
    I actually thought that DET might handle this well, even though there is no seasonality in the training.

    My reasoning was that I paper-played 5 or 6 days in early December - about 125 races or so - and did quite well.

    So, I shall repeat the warning one more time...
    TREAD CAREFULLY UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY!
  • Jim Pommier
    95
    One of the tracks I play is Gulfstream Park. The PSR Rank 1 horse has won 22 out of the last 87 races-- 25.29%. The PSR Rank 1's have won only one (1) out of the last 11 races. PSR Rank 2 & 3's have won 15 races each-- 17.24% each. 8 FTS's have won. Seems PSR Rank 1's are a little short right now. Maybe the winter or the competitive meet going on now.
    On the other hand, at PARX, PSR Rank 1's have won 30 or 33.33% of the last 90 races. The Rank 2 & 3's have done very well at 18 and 17 wins each. PSR has been very strong the last 90 races at PRX. PRX has had recent runs where the PSR Rank 1, 2 or 3 won in 9 and 12 straight races. Not sure how long this trend will continue.
  • Dave Schwartz
    373
    While the number of races are small, if it is a trend, I imagine that it will go back to normal in the near future.

    This builds a case for some trend reporting.
  • PickMaster
    8
    Jim's observations might lend some credence to Dave's theory since Gulfstream is a higher-class track (especially the upcoming meet) than PHA.
  • Jeff Capper
    7
    I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. If there is any drop-off at all it seems concentrated at the cold weather tracks- PEN, PRX/PHA, MVR and CT.

    Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures?
  • Dave Schwartz
    373
    Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures?Jeff Capper

    Of course!

    But you had me at:
    I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA.Jeff Capper
  • Jeff Capper
    7
    Yes indeed! I'm actually ready to take the exacta approach that I outlined recently in a separate thread to the windows. It's performing that well. Can't wait to see what you unveil Thursday, but I'm already quite pleased with where my deT journey seems headed
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