• Dave Schwartz
    394
    I've got to say that in the last 60 days or so, my game has really leveled up.


    A Few Discoveries
    1. L1 Races are my bread and butter.
    (Races where the AI LINE has only ONE HORSE under 2/1.)

    2. L2 Races are a pass unless there is a BALO between them.
    (Races where the AI LINE has TWO HORSE under 2/1.)
    Actually ran across two races in the last few days (handicapping from 2024) that had THREE horses under 2/1!

    3. L0 Races are passes for me.
    More to come on this.

    4. I'm back to playing 6-horse fields...
    ... but 5-horses are just too difficult to beat.

    5. I have a new definition for "Chaos Races"
    You have to see it to understand.

    ______________________
    All of the above elements plus some drastic improvements to my WAGERING STRATEGY have raised my SESSION WIN PERCENTAGE to almost 80%!

    Imagine...
    My standard play is a $300 session.
    It ends when I either:
    A) Win $300 or more
    or
    B) have a "down turn" of $300.

    Example: Tonight I was playing against a day where I had "scraped" $236 of profit, before having a down turn of $271, and did not have enough left in my $300 to make the next bet.

    Thus, even though I counted the session as a loss, the actual money lost was only $35!
    ______________
    Right now my session stats are at 11-for-13, but I do not expect it to be that high long termm

    My 10-year history is 74% at 7/5.

    I really think it will be 78% or maybe even 80% with the new conservative approach I've designed when I am in deep session and chasing the money a bit. (I've added a hedge in the largest bets.)

    Excited to show you guys.
  • ponyplayer
    162
    Can't wait!!

    How soon??
  • Tom Atwater
    10


    My 10-year history is 74% at 7/5
    

    Not sure what this means, Dave - You have shown a profit in 74% of your $300 sessions? With average profit of 1.4 * $300 = $420?
  • Dave Schwartz
    394
    It means that I win 74% of my sessions with an average return of 7/5.

    The actual average payoff is about 6/5.

    But, because the losses are almost always less than $300, the actual average risk is less than $300 per session, resulting in a net gain in return.

    IOW, even though I begin with $300, on average the average loss is about 20% less.

    As an example, I recently lost a session where I had already "scraped" $236. In addition, when I lost the last bet, I was at a down turn leaving me with $29. Since that was not enough to make another bet, that $29 was added to the "scraped" amount.

    In other words, my net loss for the session was only $35.

    Below are the actual bets.
    ____________________________________

    Sess# Race              BET     RETURN   RESULT     GAME    SCRAPE  SESSION
      201  7/26/24 GP 01     30      39.00        9     +9
    LRL02
      201  7/26/24 LRL02     30      33.00        3     +12
    SAR01 
      201  7/26/24 SAR01     30      62.00       32     +44     44      +44
    ___________________________________________________________________________
    GP 02 
      202  7/26/24 GP 02     30      20.00      -10     -10
    WO 02 
      202  7/26/24 WO 02     40      29.00      -11     -21
    SAR02 
      202  7/26/24 SAR02     52      67.00       15     -6
    LRL04 
      202  7/26/24 LRL04     36     103.00       67     +61     61      +105
    ___________________________________________________________________________
    MTH01 
      203  7/26/24 MTH01     30      54.00       24     +24
    LRL05 
      203  7/26/24 LRL05     30                 -30     -6
    WO 04 
      203  7/26/24 WO 04     30                 -30     -36
    LRL06 
      203  7/26/24 LRL06     29                 -29     -65
    MTH03 
      203  7/26/24 MTH03     30      41.00       11     -54
    GP 05 
      203  7/26/24 GP 05     71     112.00       41     -13
    WO 05 
      203  7/26/24 WO 05     42      35.00       -7     -20
    MTH04 
      203  7/26/24 MTH04     50      44.00       -6     -26
    BTP07 
      203  7/26/24 BTP07     56      52.00       -4     -30
    GP 06 
      203  7/26/24 GP 06     60      54.00       -6     -36
    MTH05 
      203  7/26/24 MTH05     66                 -66     -102
    SAR06 
      203  7/26/24 SAR06     32      30.00       -2     -104
    =========
      203  8/07/24 BTP01     60      33.00      -27     -131
      203  8/07/24 TDN01     63      50.00      -13     -144
      203  8/07/24 DEL02     80     119.00       39     -105
      203  8/07/24 TDN02    135     222.00       87     -18
      203  8/07/24 TDN03     47     129.00       82     +64     64      +169
    ___________________________________________________________________________
      204  8/07/24 DEL04     30      53.00       23
      204  8/07/24 BTP04     30                 -30     -7
      204  8/07/24 SAR03     30                 -30     -37
      204  8/07/24 BTP05     30     134.00      104     +67     67      +236
    ___________________________________________________________________________
      205  8/07/24 SAR04     30                 -30     -30
      205  8/07/24 TDN06     30                 -30     -60
      205  8/07/24 FL 06     30                 -30     -90
      205  8/07/24 DEL07     30                 -30     -120
      205  8/07/24 BTP07     30     102.00       72     -48
      205  8/07/24 SAR06     78                 -78     -126
      205  8/07/24 BTP08     39      49.00       10     -116
    ==========
      205  8/08/24 IND01     79     123.00       44     -72
      205  8/08/24 DEL05    102                -102     -174
      205  8/08/24 SAR04     51      35.00      -16     -190
      205  8/08/24 BTP06     51      33.00      -18     -208
      205  8/08/24 IND03     63                 -63     -271            NET -35
    ___________________________________________________________________________
    
  • Dave Schwartz
    394
    One of my biggest adjustments is in strategy when I am in a situation where the risk of losing a session is greatest.

    Specifically, when I am firing up (ie large bet) and am close to losing the session if I lose the bet.

    More specifically, I add a small hedge with the L horse, so that if he wins I am still alive.

    That has saved me from 4 recent losses, 2 of which ultimately became wins.

    The lost session I posted prolonged a couple of times.

    BTW, on average the sessions now typically take an average of 21 bets. That is a significant increase from the 15 it used to take.

    Easy sessions are like 3-5 races - when I just slam them with a couple of big hits right up front.
  • Jeff Capper
    12
    Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO?
  • Dave Schwartz
    394
    Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO?Jeff Capper

    Yes, but not 5-horse fields.
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