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Dave Schwartz
394I've got to say that in the last 60 days or so, my game has really leveled up.
A Few Discoveries
1. L1 Races are my bread and butter.
(Races where the AI LINE has only ONE HORSE under 2/1.)
2. L2 Races are a pass unless there is a BALO between them.
(Races where the AI LINE has TWO HORSE under 2/1.)
Actually ran across two races in the last few days (handicapping from 2024) that had THREE horses under 2/1!
3. L0 Races are passes for me.
More to come on this.
4. I'm back to playing 6-horse fields...
... but 5-horses are just too difficult to beat.
5. I have a new definition for "Chaos Races"
You have to see it to understand.
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All of the above elements plus some drastic improvements to my WAGERING STRATEGY have raised my SESSION WIN PERCENTAGE to almost 80%!
Imagine...
My standard play is a $300 session.
It ends when I either:
A) Win $300 or more
or
B) have a "down turn" of $300.
Example: Tonight I was playing against a day where I had "scraped" $236 of profit, before having a down turn of $271, and did not have enough left in my $300 to make the next bet.
Thus, even though I counted the session as a loss, the actual money lost was only $35!
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Right now my session stats are at 11-for-13, but I do not expect it to be that high long termm
My 10-year history is 74% at 7/5.
I really think it will be 78% or maybe even 80% with the new conservative approach I've designed when I am in deep session and chasing the money a bit. (I've added a hedge in the largest bets.)
Excited to show you guys. -
Tom Atwater
11
My 10-year history is 74% at 7/5
Not sure what this means, Dave - You have shown a profit in 74% of your $300 sessions? With average profit of 1.4 * $300 = $420? -
Dave Schwartz
394It means that I win 74% of my sessions with an average return of 7/5.
The actual average payoff is about 6/5.
But, because the losses are almost always less than $300, the actual average risk is less than $300 per session, resulting in a net gain in return.
IOW, even though I begin with $300, on average the average loss is about 20% less.
As an example, I recently lost a session where I had already "scraped" $236. In addition, when I lost the last bet, I was at a down turn leaving me with $29. Since that was not enough to make another bet, that $29 was added to the "scraped" amount.
In other words, my net loss for the session was only $35.
Below are the actual bets.
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Sess# Race BET RETURN RESULT GAME SCRAPE SESSION 201 7/26/24 GP 01 30 39.00 9 +9 LRL02 201 7/26/24 LRL02 30 33.00 3 +12 SAR01 201 7/26/24 SAR01 30 62.00 32 +44 44 +44 ___________________________________________________________________________ GP 02 202 7/26/24 GP 02 30 20.00 -10 -10 WO 02 202 7/26/24 WO 02 40 29.00 -11 -21 SAR02 202 7/26/24 SAR02 52 67.00 15 -6 LRL04 202 7/26/24 LRL04 36 103.00 67 +61 61 +105 ___________________________________________________________________________ MTH01 203 7/26/24 MTH01 30 54.00 24 +24 LRL05 203 7/26/24 LRL05 30 -30 -6 WO 04 203 7/26/24 WO 04 30 -30 -36 LRL06 203 7/26/24 LRL06 29 -29 -65 MTH03 203 7/26/24 MTH03 30 41.00 11 -54 GP 05 203 7/26/24 GP 05 71 112.00 41 -13 WO 05 203 7/26/24 WO 05 42 35.00 -7 -20 MTH04 203 7/26/24 MTH04 50 44.00 -6 -26 BTP07 203 7/26/24 BTP07 56 52.00 -4 -30 GP 06 203 7/26/24 GP 06 60 54.00 -6 -36 MTH05 203 7/26/24 MTH05 66 -66 -102 SAR06 203 7/26/24 SAR06 32 30.00 -2 -104 ========= 203 8/07/24 BTP01 60 33.00 -27 -131 203 8/07/24 TDN01 63 50.00 -13 -144 203 8/07/24 DEL02 80 119.00 39 -105 203 8/07/24 TDN02 135 222.00 87 -18 203 8/07/24 TDN03 47 129.00 82 +64 64 +169 ___________________________________________________________________________ 204 8/07/24 DEL04 30 53.00 23 204 8/07/24 BTP04 30 -30 -7 204 8/07/24 SAR03 30 -30 -37 204 8/07/24 BTP05 30 134.00 104 +67 67 +236 ___________________________________________________________________________ 205 8/07/24 SAR04 30 -30 -30 205 8/07/24 TDN06 30 -30 -60 205 8/07/24 FL 06 30 -30 -90 205 8/07/24 DEL07 30 -30 -120 205 8/07/24 BTP07 30 102.00 72 -48 205 8/07/24 SAR06 78 -78 -126 205 8/07/24 BTP08 39 49.00 10 -116 ========== 205 8/08/24 IND01 79 123.00 44 -72 205 8/08/24 DEL05 102 -102 -174 205 8/08/24 SAR04 51 35.00 -16 -190 205 8/08/24 BTP06 51 33.00 -18 -208 205 8/08/24 IND03 63 -63 -271 NET -35 ___________________________________________________________________________
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Dave Schwartz
394One of my biggest adjustments is in strategy when I am in a situation where the risk of losing a session is greatest.
Specifically, when I am firing up (ie large bet) and am close to losing the session if I lose the bet.
More specifically, I add a small hedge with the L horse, so that if he wins I am still alive.
That has saved me from 4 recent losses, 2 of which ultimately became wins.
The lost session I posted prolonged a couple of times.
BTW, on average the sessions now typically take an average of 21 bets. That is a significant increase from the 15 it used to take.
Easy sessions are like 3-5 races - when I just slam them with a couple of big hits right up front. -
Jeff Capper
13Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO? -
Dave Schwartz
394Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO? — Jeff Capper
Yes, but not 5-horse fields.
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